KenPom’s Top March Madness Picks for Success

• I have compared the odds for every first round March Madness game to the score projections at KenPom
• A ton of March Madness totals are significantly lower than their KenPom totals
• See the top ten best March Madness bets for the first round according to KenPom’s predictions

The original and still (for my money) the best college basketball analytics site, KenPom (“KP”) has set out its score projections for all first round March Madness games. I have compared the KenPom predictions to the current odds at DraftKings and culled the “best bets”, so to speak, from the site, i.e. the games in which the odds (spread, moneyline and/or total) differ the most from the score prediction at KP.

March Madness Best Bets According to KenPom

Odds and totals from DraftKings at 11:51 am ET, March 19. Get the best March Madness betting promos before tip-off on the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday.

KenPom’s Top Pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma Moneyline (+190) vs UConn

For the most part, the moneyline odds for first round games are largely reflective of the win probability at KenPom. But that is decidedly not the case in the 8/9 matchup between Oklahoma and two-time defending-champion UConn. KenPom projects a one-point UConn win, but Dan Hurley’s Huskies are laying 5.5 points to the Sooners.

On the moneyline, Oklahoma is a +190 underdog, which carries an implied win probability of just 34.48. The KenPom projection gives the Sooners a 48% chance of winning. That’s a massive difference that you won’t often find in modern college basketball.

Yes, Hurley has won 12 straight NCAA Tournament games but the talent discrepancy he enjoyed between his Huskies and the rest of the nation, including these Sooners, just isn’t there this year. That’s evident from the March Madness championship odds, where UConn is priced at a long +8000.

Ole Miss Is Being Undervalued vs North Carolina

The #11 North Carolina Tar Heels put an absolute beatdown on San Diego State (95-68) in their First Four matchup last night. Their only two losses since Feb. 10 were against Duke (9-2 in that span) and the betting public likes what they see. Despite being the worse seed, North Carolina opened as a 1.5-point favorite against #6 Ole Miss in the first round.

But KenPom’s analytics still say the Rebels are the slightly better team, even after UNC’s destruction of the Aztecs. KenPom projects a 77-76 Ole Miss victory and gives the Rebels a 54% chance of winning. Ole Miss’ moneyline price (+102) equates to a 49.5% implied win probability. That’s not nearly as big a discrepancy as the Oklahoma/UConn game, but it’s still meaningful.

KenPom Loves the Over in UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech

When it comes to totals, the biggest discrepancy on the board is 4.5 points in #14 UNC Wilmington vs #3 Texas Teach. The total is currently sitting at just 142.5, whereas the KenPom projection is for an 81-66 TTU victory, which amounts to 147, or 4.5 points higher.

Several other games are showing a 3.5-point discrepancy between their totals and the KP projections, including: #10 New Mexico vs #7 Marquette, which has a total of 153.5 but a KenPom projection of just 150 points; #11 Drake vs #6 Missouri, which has a total of 132.5 points and a KP projection of 136; and #10 Arkansas vs #7 Kansas, which has a total of 145.5 and a KP projection of 142.

Be sure to check out SBD’s other March Madness content::

March Madness is one of the most exciting times of the year for college basketball fans, as teams from all over the country compete for a chance to be crowned national champions. With so many teams vying for the title, it can be difficult to predict which ones will come out on top. That’s where KenPom’s Top March Madness Picks for Success come in.

Ken Pomeroy, a well-known college basketball statistician and analyst, has been providing valuable insights and predictions for March Madness for years. His rankings and projections are highly respected in the basketball community, and many fans and bettors rely on his expertise when making their own picks.

So, what are KenPom’s top picks for success in this year’s tournament? According to his latest rankings, some of the top teams to watch out for include Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, and Illinois. These teams have consistently performed well throughout the season and have the talent and depth to make a deep run in the tournament.

In addition to these powerhouse teams, KenPom also highlights some potential dark horses that could surprise everyone and make a Cinderella run in March Madness. Teams like Loyola Chicago, San Diego State, and Houston have been flying under the radar but have the potential to pull off some upsets and make a name for themselves in the tournament.

One of the key factors that KenPom considers when making his picks is each team’s efficiency metrics. He looks at a variety of advanced statistics, such as offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, and strength of schedule, to determine which teams are most likely to succeed in the tournament. By analyzing these metrics, KenPom is able to identify teams that have a strong chance of making a deep run in March Madness.

Of course, no one can predict the outcome of March Madness with 100% accuracy, as upsets are a common occurrence in the tournament. However, by taking into account KenPom’s top picks for success, fans and bettors can gain valuable insights into which teams are most likely to perform well in this year’s tournament.

As March Madness approaches, be sure to keep an eye on KenPom’s rankings and predictions to stay informed about which teams are poised for success. Whether you’re filling out your bracket or placing bets on the games, KenPom’s insights can help you make more informed decisions and increase your chances of coming out on top in this year’s tournament.