KenPom’s Top March Madness Picks: A Comprehensive Guide

• I have compared the odds for every first round March Madness game to the score projections at KenPom
• A ton of March Madness totals are significantly lower than their KenPom totals
• See the top ten best March Madness bets for the first round according to KenPom’s predictions

The original and still (for my money) the best college basketball analytics site, KenPom (“KP”) has set out its score projections for all first round March Madness games. I have compared the KenPom predictions to the current odds at DraftKings and culled the “best bets”, so to speak, from the site, i.e. the games in which the odds (spread, moneyline and/or total) differ the most from the score prediction at KP.

March Madness Best Bets According to KenPom

Odds from DraftKings at 11:51 am ET, March 19. Get the best March Madness betting promos before tip-off on the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday.

KenPom’s Top Pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament: Oklahoma Moneyline (+190) vs UConn

For the most part, the moneyline odds for first round games are largely reflective of the win probability at KenPom. But that is decidedly not the case in the 8/9 matchup between Oklahoma and two-time defending-champion UConn. KenPom projects a one-point UConn win, but Dan Hurley’s Huskies are laying 5.5 points to the Sooners.

On the moneyline, Oklahoma is a +190 underdog, which carries an implied win probability of just 34.48. The KenPom projection gives the Sooners a 48% chance of winning. That’s a massive difference that you won’t often find in modern college basketball.

Yes, Hurley has won 12 straight NCAA Tournament games but the talent discrepancy he enjoyed between his Huskies and the rest of the nation, including these Sooners, just isn’t there this year. That’s evident from the March Madness championship odds, where UConn is priced at a long +8000.

Ole Miss Is Being Undervalued vs North Carolina

The #11 North Carolina Tar Heels put an absolute beatdown on San Diego State (95-68) in their First Four matchup last night. Their only two losses since Feb. 10 were against Duke (9-2 in that span) and the betting public likes what they see. Despite being the worse seed, North Carolina opened as a 1.5-point favorite against #6 Ole Miss in the first round.

But KenPom’s analytics still say the Rebels are the slightly better team, even after UNC’s destruction of the Aztecs. KenPom projects a 77-76 Ole Miss victory and gives the Rebels a 54% chance of winning. Ole Miss’ moneyline price (+102) equates to a 49.5% implied win probability. That’s not nearly as big a discrepancy as the Oklahoma/UConn game, but it’s still meaningful.

KenPom Loves the Over in UNC Wilmington vs Texas Tech

When it comes to totals, the biggest discrepancy on the board is 4.5 points in #14 UNC Wilmington vs #3 Texas Teach. The total is currently sitting at just 142.5, whereas the KenPom projection is for an 81-66 TTU victory, which amounts to 147, or 4.5 points higher.

Several other games are showing a 3.5-point discrepancy between their totals and the KP projections, including: #10 New Mexico vs #7 Marquette, which has a total of 153.5 but a KenPom projection of just 150 points; #11 Drake vs #6 Missouri, which has a total of 132.5 points and a KP projection of 136; and #10 Arkansas vs #7 Kansas, which has a total of 145.5 and a KP projection of 142.

Be sure to check out SBD’s other March Madness content::

March Madness is one of the most exciting times of the year for college basketball fans. With the tournament just around the corner, many are turning to KenPom’s top picks for guidance on who to bet on. KenPom, short for Ken Pomeroy, is a well-known statistician who has been providing advanced analytics for college basketball for years. His rankings are highly respected in the basketball community and are often used by bettors to inform their decisions.

KenPom’s top March Madness picks are based on a variety of factors, including team performance, strength of schedule, and individual player statistics. By analyzing these metrics, KenPom is able to identify teams that have a strong chance of success in the tournament.

One of KenPom’s top picks for this year’s March Madness is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have been dominant all season, boasting an impressive record and a high-powered offense. With star players like Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert leading the way, Gonzaga is a favorite to make a deep run in the tournament.

Another team to watch according to KenPom is Baylor. The Bears have been consistently ranked in the top five all season and have shown they can compete with the best teams in the country. Led by guards Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell, Baylor has the talent and experience to make a strong push in March Madness.

In addition to Gonzaga and Baylor, KenPom’s top picks also include teams like Illinois, Michigan, and Iowa. These teams have all had successful seasons and are poised to make noise in the tournament.

While KenPom’s rankings are a valuable tool for bettors, it’s important to remember that March Madness is known for its unpredictability. Upsets happen every year, and no team is guaranteed to win it all. That being said, using KenPom’s top picks as a guide can help bettors make more informed decisions when filling out their brackets or placing bets.

In conclusion, KenPom’s top March Madness picks provide valuable insight into which teams are primed for success in the tournament. By analyzing advanced statistics and performance metrics, KenPom is able to identify teams with the best chances of making a deep run. While nothing is certain in March Madness, using KenPom’s rankings can give bettors a competitive edge when making their picks.