Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (from left), former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, Vice President Kamala Harris, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Arizona Senate hopeful Ruben Gallego speak on Aug. 9, 2024, in Glendale.
- The updated 2024 presidential election odds favor Harris/Walz over Trump/Vance
- Trump had been the betting favorite for the entire calendar year up to this point
- See the latest odds to win the 2024 election for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
A betting market that Donald Trump had been dominating for the better part of the last six months has been turned on its head in the last few weeks. Since incumbent Joe Biden dropped his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the latter has been on a one-way trip to the top of the board, recently surpassing former President Trump as the betting favorite to win the White House on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Updated 2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -125 |
| Donald Trump | +100 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr | +5000 |
Harris, who was a still as long as +110 at this time last week, continued to rise up the board after naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running-mate.
Odds as of August 11 at bet365. Check out the top political betting sites.
Trump’s Odds Sagging
In the wake of the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, Trump’s odds to win a second, non-consecutive term in the White House moved to a startling short -278, on average. At that point, aging incumbent Joe Biden was still in the race and looked intent on seeing through his re-election bid, for better or worse.
But since Biden’s stunning-yet-inevitable announcement that he was dropping his re-election campaign – and endorsing VP Harris in one fell swoop – Trump’s odds have been on a one-way train in the opposite direction. The day after Biden’s announcement, Trump faded to -200 and when all the Democratic ducks lined up behind Harris, he faded further to -188.
Over the last two weeks, he’s moved all the way to plus-money, currently sitting at +100.
Harris Rise Supported by Polling Numbers
Kamala Harris’ rise up the odds board isn’t just a response to betting handle. The most-up-to-date polling numbers show the current VEEP with a lead both nationally and in most of the key battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election.
Nate Silver’s most-recent polling averages showed Harris with a 2.5% lead nationally and at least a 1.3% lead in all of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If she carries those three states, she’s all but guaranteed of an Electoral College victory. The interactive map at 270towin has 226 Electoral College votes solidly blue; adding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin equals exactly 270 with Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes), and Nevada (6 votes) still in neutral territory.
Trump holds a slight lead in Georgia (46.0% to 45.1%) but Harris is ahead out west in both Arizona (44.6% to 44.0%) and Nevada (44.6% to 42.9%) in Silver’s latest polls.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
In the world of politics, speculation and predictions about future elections are always a hot topic. With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, many are already placing their bets on who will come out on top. According to recent odds, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently favored over former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House.
While it may seem early to be making such predictions, political analysts and oddsmakers are already looking ahead to the next election cycle. Harris, who made history as the first female, first Black, and first Asian American vice president, has been seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party. Her strong debate performances and ability to connect with a diverse range of voters have made her a formidable candidate for the presidency.
On the other hand, Trump remains a polarizing figure in American politics. Despite losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, he still maintains a loyal base of supporters who are eager to see him make a comeback in 2024. However, his controversial rhetoric and handling of the COVID-19 pandemic have also alienated many voters, making his path to victory uncertain.
According to betting odds from various sources, including online sportsbooks and prediction markets, Harris currently has a slight edge over Trump in the 2024 presidential election. While these odds are by no means a guarantee of the outcome, they do provide some insight into how the political landscape is shaping up for the next election.
Of course, a lot can change between now and 2024. New candidates may emerge, unforeseen events could shift public opinion, and the political climate could evolve in unexpected ways. But for now, it seems that Kamala Harris is the frontrunner in the race for the White House. Only time will tell if she can maintain her lead and secure the Democratic nomination in 2024.
