Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (from left), former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords, Vice President Kamala Harris, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Arizona Senate hopeful Ruben Gallego speak on Aug. 9, 2024, in Glendale.
- The updated 2024 presidential election odds favor Harris/Walz over Trump/Vance
- Trump had been the betting favorite for the entire calendar year up to this point
- See the latest odds to win the 2024 election for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
A betting market that Donald Trump had been dominating for the better part of the last six months has been turned on its head in the last few weeks. Since incumbent Joe Biden dropped his re-election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, the latter has been on a one-way trip to the top of the board, recently surpassing former President Trump as the betting favorite to win the White House on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Updated 2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate (Party) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris (Dem) | -125 |
| Donald Trump (GOP) | +100 |
| Robert Kennedy Jr (Independent) | +5000 |
Harris, who was a still as long as +110 at this time last week, continued to rise up the board after naming Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running-mate.
Odds as of August 11 at bet365. Check out the top political betting sites.
Trump’s Odds Sagging
In the wake of the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, Trump’s odds to win a second, non-consecutive term in the White House moved to a startling short -278, on average. At that point, aging incumbent Joe Biden was still in the race and looked intent on seeing through his re-election bid, for better or worse.
But since Biden’s stunning-yet-inevitable announcement that he was dropping his re-election campaign – and endorsing VP Harris in one fell swoop – Trump’s odds have been on a one-way train in the opposite direction. The day after Biden’s announcement, Trump faded to -200 and when all the Democratic ducks lined up behind Harris, he faded further to -188.
Over the last two weeks, he’s moved all the way to plus-money, currently sitting at +100.
Harris Rise Supported by Polling Numbers
Kamala Harris’ rise up the odds board isn’t just a response to betting handle. The most-up-to-date polling numbers show the current VEEP with a lead both nationally and in most of the key battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election.
Nate Silver’s most-recent polling averages showed Harris with a 2.5% lead nationally and at least a 1.3% lead in all of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If she carries those three states, she’s all but guaranteed of an Electoral College victory.
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
In the world of political betting, odds are constantly shifting based on a variety of factors including polling data, public perception, and current events. As we look ahead to the 2024 presidential election, one name that is emerging as a frontrunner is Vice President Kamala Harris.
Recent polling data and analysis of current events suggest that Harris is favored over former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election odds. This may come as a surprise to some, given Trump’s strong base of support and his continued influence within the Republican Party. However, Harris’ position as Vice President and her growing popularity among Democratic voters have positioned her as a strong contender for the presidency.
One key factor in Harris’ favor is her experience and qualifications for the role of president. As a former Senator and Attorney General of California, Harris has a strong track record of leadership and public service. She has also been a vocal advocate for issues such as criminal justice reform, healthcare, and climate change, which resonate with many voters.
Additionally, Harris’ historic role as the first female, Black, and South Asian Vice President has garnered significant attention and support from diverse groups of voters. Her presence on the national stage has helped to inspire and mobilize women and people of color, who see her as a trailblazer and a symbol of progress.
On the other hand, Trump’s divisive rhetoric and controversial actions during his presidency have alienated many voters, particularly those in the center and on the left. While he still maintains a loyal base of supporters, his approval ratings have remained relatively low compared to other former presidents at this point in their post-presidency.
Of course, it is still early in the 2024 election cycle and much can change between now and then. Other potential candidates may emerge, and unforeseen events could impact the race. However, based on current trends and analysis, it appears that Kamala Harris is favored over Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election odds.
As always, it is important to remember that political betting is speculative in nature and should be approached with caution. It is also crucial for voters to research candidates, their policies, and their track records before making an informed decision at the ballot box.
