- It’s Dinger Tuesday which means extra value on MLB home run bets
- Which hitters have had the most success against today’s starting pitchers?
- Below, see most important home run data, stats, and trends to know for Dinger Tuesday on April 15
Since the advent of Dinger Tuesday a couple seasons ago, Tuesday has always been the day of the week offering the best bang for your buck when it comes to making MLB home run picks. April 15th brings another great opportunity with FanDuel offering a 50% profit boost to use on any player to hit a home run, and DraftKings offering a no-sweat home run bet where you get a bonus bet back if your player does not hit a home run today.
Dinger Tuesday will only end in profits if bettors are cashing tickets, of course. On that note, I have compiled the most-relevant data, stats, and trends for players and pitchers in action today. In the first table, below, I have listed out the players who have gone deep against the starter they’ll be facing today. I have listed the players in order of total HRs off that pitcher and, secondarily, in order of HRs per at-bat. The stats in parentheses are the hitter’s career batting average and OPS against the relevant starter.
Most HRs Off Today’s Starting Pitchers
Today’s hitter-vs-pitcher matchups aren’t stacked with guys who have dominated the opposing starter, but there are some promising numbers on the board. The one that I like in particular is Seattle’s Randy Arozarena against Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo. Arozarena has taken Lodolo yard twice in just six at-bats and has four hits off him in total. Arozarena is priced at +400 to hit a home run at FanDuel and +380 at DraftKings in Tuesday’s MLB player props. Lodolo has had a great start to the year though, posting a 0.96 ERA and 0.70 WHIP through three starts. He’s allowed one home run in 18 innings of work so far.
See SBD’s list of the the best MLB betting sites.
I would also take a hard look at Carlos Santana, who has two homers off veteran Charlie Morton in 11 career at-bats. Morton is having an absolute disaster of a season. Through three starts, the 41-year-old has an 8.78 ERA and 1.88 WHIP, allowing three homers in just 13.1 IP. He’s surrendered at least four runs in each of his first three starts this year.
In the next table, I have listed the current season leaders in EV50 (the average exit velocity of the hardest 50% of batted balls) along with those player’s Brls/PA % (average number of barrels per plate appearance).
Highest Exit Velocity & Most Barrels by Hitter
A couples things stand out about the current exit velocity and barrell numbers. First, Gunnar Henderson has somehow been mashing balls at an average exit velo of 107.1 while only barreling up balls in 2.9% of his plate appearances. The 23-year-old superstar has yet to hit a homer this season after going yard 37 times last year and 27 as a rookie.
“Big Christmas” Jhonkensy Noel has similar numbers: a 105.9 EV50 but just a 2.9% barrel rate. After hitting 13 dingers in just 67 games as a rookie last year, the 23-year-old Dominican is still searching for his first homer of this season.
If you’re looking for two players with elite power who are also “due” so to speak, these are your guys. Henderson is priced at +550 to hit a home run at DraftKings and +470 at FanDuel. Noel is off the board at both sites as he’s not expected to start against Baltimore today.
Home runs are one of the most exciting aspects of baseball, and today’s starting pitchers are more focused than ever on preventing them. In order to do so, pitchers and coaches are paying close attention to a few key statistics that can help predict home run success or failure.
One important statistic to consider is exit velocity, which measures how fast the ball is traveling off the bat when a hitter makes contact. The higher the exit velocity, the harder the ball is hit, making it more likely to result in a home run. Starting pitchers who consistently keep exit velocities low are more likely to give up fewer home runs.
Another important statistic is barrel rate, which measures how often a hitter makes solid contact with the ball. A barrel is a term used to describe the sweet spot on the bat where hitters are most likely to hit the ball hard. Starting pitchers who can limit the number of barrels hit against them are more likely to keep the ball in the park.
When looking at trends for “Dinger Tuesday,” it’s important to consider how starting pitchers have performed on that day of the week in the past. Some pitchers may struggle on certain days of the week, while others may excel. By analyzing past performance on Tuesdays, coaches and pitchers can make adjustments to improve their chances of success.
In conclusion, exit velocity, barrel rate, and trends for specific days of the week are all important home run statistics for today’s starting pitchers to consider. By focusing on these key metrics, pitchers can better understand their strengths and weaknesses and make adjustments to prevent giving up the long ball.
