Guide to NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread and Early Lines to Target

• The NFL Week 17 schedule includes two Christmas games on Wednesday and three Saturday matchups
• The Bengals are still mathematically alive in the playoff race and host the Broncos in a must-win on Saturday afternoon
• Below, find my three favorite NFL Week 17 ATS picks to target early in the week

The Week 17 NFL schedule is all over the map: two games on Wednesday (Christmas), the usual Thursday nighter, three more games on Saturday, followed by nine on a light Sunday, and Monday Night Football. My favorite NFL Week 17 ATS picks run the gamut, starting with the first game of the week between the Chiefs and Steelers on Christmas and concluding with the Lions and 49ers on MNF.

Early NFL Week 17 ATS Picks

The Week 17 NFL odds currently list the Chiefs/Steelers spread at Kansas City -2.5, so I’m moving it up a full point to get it just over a field goal. The Broncos/Bengals spread is either 2.5 or 3.0 depending on the sportsbook, and I’m moving that one down to Cincinnati -2.5.

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NFL Week 17 ATS Pick #1: Steelers (+2.5) vs Chiefs

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, 10-5 ATS) were badly outplayed by the division-rival Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, losing 34-17 and letting their first chance to clinch the AFC North title slip away. Both teams are now 10-5 with two games to go but the Steelers own the tiebreaker and will win the North if they win out. I expect a much better effort from the Steelers at home on Wednesday with the Chiefs in town.

As good as Kansas City’s win loss record is (14-1, 7-8 ATS), they’re a game under .500 against the spread, which included seven straight ATS losses from October 27 to December 8. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 5-1 against the number at home, and have won four in a row at Acrisure Stadium both straight-up and against the spread.

NFL Week 17 ATS Pick #2: Bengals (-2.5) vs Broncos

Don’t look now but the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8, 9-6 ATS) are still alive in the AFC playoff race, and coincidentally they face the team they’re trying to track down in Week 17, the Denver Broncos (9-6, 11-4 ATS).

Needing to win their final two games and have the Broncos lose out, the Bengals are listed as field-goal favorites at home against Denver this Saturday, and I trust Joe Burrow and company to keep their season alive against a rookie QB Box Nix. The Bengals have won three in a row, all by a touchdown or more, against the Cowboys (27-20), Titans (37-27), and Browns (24-6). The defense played its best game in weeks yesterday, holding Cleveland to just 273 yards while generating three takeaways and five sacks.

The Broncos, on the other hand, completely collapsed in their pivotal matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers (34-27), blowing a 21-10 lead in the process. A win would have locked up Denver’s first playoff berth since 2015 but now they find themselves needing to beat either the Bengals or the Chiefs in Week 18 to book a postseason spot.

The defense had been the strength of the team all season but was exposed by a lackluster Chargers offense in Week 16 (380 total yards including 263 through the air and two touchdowns on 23 of 31 passing). If Justin Herbert is putting up those kinds of numbers, Joe Burrow – the league leader in passing yards with 4,229 – might have a field day.

NFL Week 17 ATS Pick #3: Lions -3.5 (-105) at 49ers

I hadn’t given up on the San Francisco 49ers (6-9, 5-10 ATS) until this week. The seemingly endless list of critical injuries have yielded a team that looks nothing like last year’s NFC champions. The Niners have lost five of their last six and averaged just 12.0 PPG in those five setbacks.

With the Vikings (13-2) and Eagles (12-3) breathing down their neck for the top seed and lone bye in the NFC, the Detroit Lions (13-2, 10-5 ATS) have no room for error if they want to avoid the divisional round. After losing just their second game of the season to the Bills in Week 15, the shorthanded Lions responded with vigor in Week 16, taking a 20-0 first-half lead on the Bears before cruising to a 34-17 win.

Jared Goff, who would be the favorite in the NFL MVP odds if not for Josh Allen’s ludicrous season, had another brilliant game, passing for 336 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions on 23 of 32 passing.

In this battle of teams headed in opposite directions, I expect the Lions to win going away.

As the NFL regular season comes to a close, Week 17 is always an exciting time for football fans. With playoff implications on the line, every game becomes crucial for teams looking to secure a spot in the postseason. For bettors, this means there are plenty of opportunities to make some money by picking games against the spread.

When making your Week 17 picks against the spread, it’s important to consider a few key factors. First and foremost, take a look at the playoff picture and see which teams have something to play for. Teams fighting for a playoff spot or seeding are likely to give it their all, while teams that have already been eliminated may not be as motivated to win.

Another factor to consider is injuries. Injuries can have a big impact on a team’s performance, so be sure to check the injury reports before making your picks. A key player being out could swing the game in favor of the opposing team, so it’s important to stay informed.

Early lines can also be a helpful tool when making your picks against the spread. While they may change as the week goes on, early lines can give you an idea of which teams are favored and by how much. Keep an eye on line movement throughout the week, as it can indicate where the public is placing their bets and potentially provide insight into which way the line may move.

When targeting games to bet on in Week 17, look for matchups where one team has something to play for and the other does not. These games can often be lopsided affairs, with the motivated team covering the spread easily. Additionally, look for teams that have been playing well in recent weeks, as momentum can be a big factor in determining the outcome of a game.

In conclusion, Week 17 of the NFL season is a great time for bettors to make some money by picking games against the spread. By considering factors such as playoff implications, injuries, early lines, and recent performance, you can increase your chances of making successful picks. So do your research, trust your instincts, and enjoy the excitement of Week 17 football!