Guide to NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread and Early Target Lines

• Week 15 in the NFL features just two divisional games, including Rams vs 49ers on TNF
• The Carolina Panthers are favored for the first time all season … and I’m laying the points
• Below, see my favorite NFL Week 15 ATS picks and early lines to target

The 2024 NFL regular season is down to its final quarter and odds are out for Week 15. I have narrowed down the lines and found my three favorite NFL Week 15 ATS picks to target early on. The week starts with the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers meeting on TNF as both try to track down Seattle at the top of the NFC West. Coincidentally, that’s also where my NFL Week 15 ATS picks commence.

Early NFL Week 15 ATS Picks

In Week 15, I am taking three home teams to cover, starting with the undervalued Niners on Thursday Night Football and continuing with two squads playing out the string in the early window on Sunday.

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NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #1: 49ers -2.5 (-110) Over Rams

The Niners (6-7, 4-3 home, 5-8 ATS) have had a hard-luck season, battling significant injuries at every turn and suffering multiple late-game collapses. But against the odds, they still have a an outside chance to make the postseason. Brock Purdy and company ended a three-game losing streak in style last Sunday, stomping the Bears 38-13, and certainly didn’t look like a fatigued bunch playing out the string.

The Rams are also coming off an impressive performance, edging out the Bills 44-42 at home and overcoming a record-setting day from Josh Allen in the process. But we’re still talking about a team with a -34 point differential going on the road to face a 49ers group that’s getting a bit healthier and was picked by 99% of pundits to repeat as NFC West champs. I expect the Week 15 NFL odds to move in San Francisco’s direction as the week goes on and will very gladly take the Niners laying less than a field goal.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #2: Browns +7.5 (-155) Over Chiefs

The Chiefs (12-1, 5-1 away, 5-8 ATS) are 6-1 straight-up in their last seven games but haven’t covered a single one of those games. They are scraping by on last-second field goals and stingy defense.

That’s not to say Patrick Mahomes won’t put up a 40-burger sooner or later, but I seriously doubt this is going to be the week. First, it’s on the road against a supremely talented Cleveland defense. Second, temperatures are going to be near-freezing with rain in the forecast. It won’t be the whiteout that the Steelers and Browns played in a couple weeks ago, but the conditions certainly won’t be conducive to prolific air yardage, which is the easiest way to cover a big spread.

The Browns (3-10, 2-4 home, 4-9 ATS) have an ugly win/loss record but have played reasonably well at home in the second half of the season. In their last four home games, they’re 2-2 straight-up with wins over Pittsburgh (24-19) and Baltimore (29-24), a close loss to Cincinnati (21-14), and a stinker against the Chargers (27-10).

I’m betting this line up a 1.5 points to get over a TD and taking the Browns at a reasonable -155.

NFL Week 15 ATS Pick #3: Panthers -3.0 (+120) vs Cowboys

The Carolina Panthers (3-10, 2-5 home, 6-7 ATS) are arguably the most-improved team since the start of the season. They are only 2-3 straight-up over the last five weeks – including three straight losses – but 5-0 against the number. All three of those setbacks were one-score games against division-leading opponents: 30-27 vs Kansas City, 26-23 OT vs Tampa Bay, and 22-16 at Philadelphia. Think of Carolina as the anti-Chiefs. No matter the opponent, they’re putting up a decent fight.

Dallas (5-7, 4-2 away, 4-8 ATS), meanwhile, has shown a surprising amount of fight over the last two weeks, stunning the Commanders in Washington (34-26) on Nov. 24 thanks largely to special-teams play, and then taking care of the lowly Giants (27-20) on Thanksgiving. But the Cowboys will be making a long road trip on a short week after hosting the Bengals on MNF in Week 14. Only three teams in the league has a worse ATS record than the disappointing Cowboys. I expect Dallas to lose on MNF tonight, which will de facto eliminate them from the NFL playoff bracket (if not mathematically), which will in turn lead to an ugly effort in Carolina six days later.

As we head into Week 15 of the NFL season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, every game becomes more crucial for teams fighting for a spot in the postseason. For bettors, this means that every pick against the spread becomes even more important.

When making your picks for Week 15, it’s important to consider a few key factors. First, look at the early target lines set by oddsmakers. These lines can give you a good idea of how the game is expected to play out and where there may be value in betting against the spread.

Next, consider the injury reports for each team. Injuries can have a significant impact on a team’s performance, so it’s important to know who will be playing and who will be sitting out. Keep an eye on key players who may be dealing with injuries that could affect their ability to perform at their best.

Another factor to consider is the weather forecast for each game. Weather conditions can have a big impact on how a game plays out, especially in outdoor stadiums. If there’s rain or snow in the forecast, it could affect the passing game and lead to lower scoring games.

Finally, look at the recent performance of each team. Teams that are on a hot streak may be more likely to cover the spread, while teams that have been struggling may be more likely to fall short. Consider how each team has been playing in recent weeks and use that information to inform your picks.

As you make your picks for Week 15, keep these factors in mind and do your research before placing your bets. By considering the early target lines, injury reports, weather forecast, and recent performance of each team, you can make informed decisions and increase your chances of success against the spread. Good luck!