- Though we have already seen four NFL games in Week 13, there are still 12 games across Sunday and Monday to choose NFL parlay legs from
- I have two NFL parlays I am betting in Week 13: one longshot parlay and one higher-probability parlay
- See my NFL parlay picks for Week 13 below, including a longshot parlay with 135-1 odds
On top of watching the (disastrous) football games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, I have been studying all of the NFL betting markets for Sunday and Monday of Week 13, with the intent of putting together the perfect NFL parlays. The result this week is a five-leg, 135-1 odds longshot NFL parlay, along with a +190 higher-probability parlay for Week 13.
I only hit two of the five legs of my longshot parlay last week, but you still would have been profitable betting them as singles. For what it’s worth CJ Stroud came up three yards shy of his milestone, which seemed like a lock when they got the ball back late in the fourth quarter while trailing. The Chiefs choke-job robbed me of the higher-probability parlay too. In case you’re not picking up on the tone, I’m frustrated by last week’s results.
But I’m directing that frustration towards some more good reads, with hopefully some better luck, in this Week 13 edition of my NFL parlay picks. Here are the two parlays I’m playing for this weekend!
Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 13
Parlay Legs | Odds |
---|---|
Will Levis 250+ Passing Yards | +270 |
Bucky Irving Anytime TD | +110 |
Brian Thomas 70+ Receiving Yards | +160 |
Chargers -2.5 | +101 |
Devaughn Vele 50+ Receiving Yards | +235 |
TOTAL 5-LEG PARLAY | +13503 |
My longshot NFL parlay for Week 13 has five legs and comes out to +13503 odds at bet365. These odds are far better than what you’ll get at other sportsbooks – DraftKings was the next-best at 113-1 odds. A $5 bet on this parlay would potentially profit $675.15 and return $680.15.
I’m starting this longshot NFL parlay off with Will Levis for 250+ passing yards. Since returning from injury, Levis has looked like a different QB. In his first five games this season (pre-injury), he only surpassed 250 passing yards once. But in his three games since returning, he has gone over this milestone in two of three. The one game he came up short was against a very good Chargers pass defense in his first game back. In Week 13, Levis will be taking on a Commanders defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards. But that’s a bit of a phony stat, as they rank 19th in net yards allowed per pass attempt. They have just seen the fewest passes attempted against them, and that’s partly because they have played many of the league’s worst QBs. Joe Burrow posted 324 against them, Lamar Jackson threw for 323, Baker Mayfield recorded 289, and Cooper Rush even passed for 247 last week. Levis can definitely hit 250 in this one.
The next leg of the parlay is a Bucky Irving anytime TD, which I went into deeper in my Week 13 NFL TD picks. But the short version is that he’s been fantastic since given more opportunities and he plays an awful Panthers defense in Week 13.
The third leg is Brian Thomas Jr for 70+ receiving yards. BTJ is averaging 62.6 receiving yards per game in his rookie season, and has only gone for 70+ in five of 11 games. However, the rookie had been playing alongside Christian Kirk, who was averaging just under six targets per game, for eight of those games. Kirk is done for the season now, though, and BTJ’s only real competition for targets is Evan Engram. We haven’t really seen any big games from Thomas Jr since Kirk went down because the first came against a very good Eagles secondary, and the next two were quarterbacked by Mac Jones – though, he did manage 82 yards in Jacksonville’s last game. With Trevor Lawrence back under center, I like Thomas Jr to see plenty of targets, and replicate his 86-yard performance in Week 4 against the same Texans he takes on this Sunday.
It’s so insane that Brian Thomas Jr. can create this much separation on horizontally breaking routes.
He’s absolutely terrifying as a vertical threat,,, AND he can do this? pic.twitter.com/L5tngxM7DR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024
Next up is an alternate spread of Chargers -2.5. I haven’t moved this spread much, as the standard line is LA -1 when they take on the Falcons in Week 13. But I’m pushing it as far as I can before hitting the significant number of three. I think this game is going to go pretty similar to the way Atlanta’s game against the Broncos went, because I feel the Chargers and Broncos are quite similar. LA is very good in coverage, can get after the passer, and prides themselves on stopping the run. No team has allowed fewer points than the Chargers this season. The key here is being able to get Kirk Cousins out of his timing and rhythm, which is something I think Jim Harbaugh’s squad is very capable of accomplishing. Cousins is not the QB who is going to navigate the pocket very well, or get outside of it, and make plays on the go. Looking to the other units, even without JK Dobbins in the lineup, Justin Herbert should have no issue putting up points against this bad Falcons defense. (Not to mention, I think Kimani Vidal needs to be given more opportunities.)
The final leg of this longshot NFL parlay comes on Monday Night Football, as I’m taking Devaughn Vele for 50+ receiving yards. Vele has only gone for 50+ yards in three of eight games this season, but he has accomplished this feat in each of his last two games. The rookie WR is fresh off an 80-yard performance, in which he was targeted nine times, only one fewer than Courtland Sutton for the team-high. Vele’s recent success lines up with his rookie QB’s breakout. With Bo Nix looking comfortable, it seems there are going to be plenty of targets to be had in Denver, with Sutton and Vele as the two most popular pass-catchers. Plus, hearing Sean Payton compare Vele to Marques Colston, arguably the greatest receiver he ever coached, is extremely high praise! I like Vele to continue to see plenty of quality targets as long as Nix is playing well, and I like the opportunity in front of him in Week 13, when he’ll take on a Browns defense that allows the seventh-most net yards per pass attempt.
Higher-Probability Week 13 NFL Parlay
Parlay Legs | Odds |
---|---|
Drake Maye 200+ Passing Yards | -200 |
Buccaneers Moneyline | -238 |
Cooper Kupp 50+ Receiving Yards | -275 |
TOTAL 3-LEG PARLAY | +190 |
My higher-probability NFL parlay for Week 13 contains three legs and is best played at DraftKings, where you can get +190 odds. You can get very close at bet365 with +186 odds as well.
The first leg of this parlay is Drake Maye for 200+ passing yards. He has thrown for 200+ in five of seven starts this season, with one of the outliers being the game he left with a concussion after 20 snaps, and the other came against the Bears, where he only had to attempt 25 passes (his next low on the season is 33 attempts) because New England was playing with a very positive game script. The rookie QB is averaging 205.1 passing yards per game, but that number jumps to 235.5 if you remove the Jets game where he got hurt. Maye will take on the Colts in Week 13, and Indianapolis has not defended the pass well this season. The Colts allow the eighth-most net yards per pass attempt. The other encouraging note is that Anthony Richardson has been moving the ball well since being reinstated as the starter. So, I don’t foresee New England facing another positive game script.
The second leg is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline. The Bucs take on the Panthers in Week 13, and just about every game left on their schedule is a must-win. But this is a Tampa Bay team that I kind of like. They have very narrow losses to the Ravens, Falcons (x2), Chiefs, and 49ers. They’re the only team who has been able to beat the Lions this season, and are one of two to beat the Eagles. This is a tested team who is fighting for their playoff lives. I don’t see them losing to arguably the worst team in the NFL this week, as I don’t really buy into what we saw out of Carolina last week against the Chiefs. Kansas City is just playing down to their opponents right now. The Bucs should put up plenty of points and overwhelm the Panthers.
The final leg of the parlay is a very common one for me: Cooper Kupp for 50+ receiving yards. I feel I have written the same thing about Kupp for the last handful of weeks now, but as I say each week, if sportsbooks are going to continue to offer him at this price, I have to continue taking it. Kupp has posted 50+ yards in six of seven, with the outlier being the game he left before halftime – he still recorded 37 yards in limited time. He has seen double-digit targets in each of the last two games, and now gets a Saints secondary who allowed Jameis Winston to throw for 395 yards, and all of Jerry Jeudy (142 yards), David Njoku, and Elijah Moore to record at least 66 receiving yards. Kupp might get his 50 in the first half.
Week 13 of the NFL season is upon us, and that means it’s time to start thinking about your parlay picks. Parlay betting can be a fun way to spice up your NFL viewing experience, and if you’re lucky, it can also be a lucrative way to make some extra cash. In this article, we’ll take a look at five Week 13 NFL parlay picks with 135-1 odds that you can consider for free.
1. New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have been on a tear lately, winning their last six games in a row. They’ll be facing off against the struggling Bills, who have lost three of their last four games. With the Patriots looking like one of the hottest teams in the league right now, they should have no problem covering the spread in this game.
2. Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Packers are coming off a tough loss to the Vikings in Week 12, but they should bounce back against the struggling Eagles. Philadelphia has lost four of their last five games and has been dealing with a slew of injuries. The Packers should be able to cover the spread in this game.
3. Los Angeles Rams (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Rams have been one of the most dominant teams in the league this season, and they should have no problem taking care of business against the lowly Jaguars. Jacksonville has lost seven games in a row and has one of the worst offenses in the league. The Rams should easily cover the spread in this game.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers have been playing well lately, winning four of their last five games. They’ll be facing off against the Falcons, who have lost three of their last four games. Tampa Bay should be able to cover the spread in this game and continue their push for a playoff spot.
5. Arizona Cardinals (-7) vs. Chicago Bears
The Cardinals have been one of the surprise teams of the season, currently sitting at 9-2 and leading the NFC West. They’ll be facing off against the struggling Bears, who have lost four of their last five games. Arizona should have no problem covering the spread in this game and continuing their push for a top seed in the playoffs.
Overall, these five Week 13 NFL parlay picks with 135-1 odds offer a good mix of favorites and underdogs that have a solid chance of covering the spread. As always, remember to gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Good luck with your parlay picks!