FCS Quarterfinals Preview: North Dakota State vs Mercer Prediction and Odds for December 14th

• North Dakota State is a 21.5-point home favorite over Mercer in FCS Quarterfinal action on Saturday, December 14
• The Bison have won four of their past five games by at least 20 points
• Check out the latest North Dakota State vs Mercer prediction, preview and odds, below

FCS quarterfinal action kicks off this week with a familiar program in the mix. The North Dakota State Bison (11-2, 7-1 MVFC) are making their 15th straight appearance in the final eight, as they hunt a record 10th championship.

The Bison haven’t won the title since 2021, but oddsmakers are expecting a cake walk through to the semis. They’ll host Mercer (11-2, 7-1 Southern) on Saturday, and they’ll do so as massive chalk in the latest College Football odds.

North Dakota State vs Mercer Odds

North Dakota State is currently favored by 21.5 points, in a contest with a total of 53.5. The Bison opened at -18, but that number didn’t last long. This team is loaded offensively, scoring at least 42 points in four of their last five meetings, including last week in their second round victory.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm ET at the Fargodome in Fargo, ND, with ABC and ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 12 at 1:00 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.

Beware of the Bison

Following in the footsteps of former Bison greats Carson Wentz and Trey Lance, is QB Cam Miller. He’s in the midst of a career-best season, throwing for 2,614 yards and 26 TD. Miller led the FCS by averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, and helped NDSU average 40 points per game.

Last time out versus Abilene Christian, he threw for 274 yards and a score, helping the Bison erase a 14-point deficit en route to a 51-31 victory. Miller, the Missouri Valley Offensive Player of the Year, has been picked off only twice all season, and should find success against the Bears on Saturday.

Cam Miller. Bryce Lance.🎯

41-24, Bison. pic.twitter.com/Pt52ZnClAP

— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) December 7, 2024

Mercer boasts a strong rush defense, but is vulnerable against the pass. They’re yielding over 7.0 yards per attempt, despite generating pressure on 47% of opponent drop backs. The Bears haven’t faced many quality passing attacks thus far, but when they have it hasn’t been pretty.

Samford’s Quincy Crittendon torched them for 378 yards and 4 TD, while Alabama’s QB room hung 319  yards and three scores on them. Expect a massive day for Miller and number one target Bryce Lance, Trey’s younger brother.

Showing Mercer No Mercy

Mercer’s strength is on the defensive side of the football. Offensively, the outlook is rather bleak. They ranked eighth in the FCS in success rate and yards per play, averaging only 217 passing yards per game. That’s a major problem if game script gets out of hand, especially versus an opportunistic Bison defense.

NDSU generates pressure on 44% of enemy drop backs. They create negative plays on 10% of their opponents snaps, forcing turnovers at the conference’s third-highest rate.

The Bears offensive line, meanwhile, is a major red flag. They’re allowing a negative play at the highest mark among quarterfinal teams, which helps explain why Mercer ranks last in giveaways among remaining programs.

North Dakota State vs Mercer Prediction

With the contenders in the College Football Playoff odds off this week, this game is sure to draw plenty of betting action. Matchup-wise, the Bison have an answer for everything the Bears do well. We noted Mercer’s strong rush defense earlier, but few teams have been able to handle North Dakota State’s dominant offensive line.

That unit ranks top-two in pressure rate allowed, which will likely negate the Bears pass rush. We should expect an efficient offensive performance from the Bison, dominating time of possession and picking apart a weak Mercer secondary.

Playoff football in the ‘Dome.

More electric moments comin’ your way this Saturday. pic.twitter.com/IbNmbAoVOq

— NDSU Football (@NDSUfootball) December 9, 2024

NDSU got a scare last week, but once they shook out the cobwebs, they annihilated Abilene Christian. They outscored them 48-14 over the final 45 minutes, winning by 20+ points for the seventh time this season, and fourth time in five games.

The Bears on the other hand, are lucky just to be here. They’ve failed to crack 18 points in two of their past three outings, and produced only 57 passing yards last week versus Rhode Island.

It’s never comfortable laying 20+ points, but this is a major mismatch. Expect Mercer to be overwhelmed from the opening kick.

• North Dakota State vs Mercer Pick: North Dakota State -21.5 (-110)

The FCS Quarterfinals are heating up as North Dakota State takes on Mercer in what promises to be an exciting matchup on December 14th. Both teams have had impressive seasons so far, with North Dakota State coming in as the heavy favorite after dominating their opponents throughout the year. However, Mercer has shown that they are a force to be reckoned with, making this game one to watch.

North Dakota State, the defending FCS champions, have been on a tear this season with a perfect 12-0 record. Led by quarterback Trey Lance, who has thrown for 2,187 yards and 23 touchdowns, the Bison offense has been virtually unstoppable. Running back Ty Brooks has also been a key player for North Dakota State, rushing for 896 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Defensively, the Bison have been equally impressive, holding opponents to just 12.3 points per game.

On the other side, Mercer comes into this game with a 10-2 record and plenty of momentum after defeating Austin Peay in the second round of the playoffs. The Bears have a balanced offense led by quarterback Robert Riddle, who has thrown for 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Running back Deondre Johnson has been a standout player for Mercer, rushing for 1,063 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, the Bears have been solid, allowing just 19.5 points per game.

In terms of odds, North Dakota State is the clear favorite in this matchup with odds of -14.5. Mercer comes in as the underdog with odds of +14.5. The over/under for the game is set at 48 points.

Prediction: While Mercer has had a strong season, North Dakota State’s dominance throughout the year makes them the team to beat in this matchup. The Bison’s high-powered offense and stingy defense should be enough to secure a victory over Mercer and advance to the FCS Semifinals. Final score prediction: North Dakota State 35, Mercer 21.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting showdown between two talented teams vying for a spot in the FCS Semifinals. Fans can expect a competitive and hard-fought game between North Dakota State and Mercer on December 14th.