Expert Picks for Masters Tournament Longshots and Cut Predictions

• The Masters tees off Thursday, from Augusta National Golf Club
• No golfer has won the Masters with longer pre-tournament odds than +4000 since 2016
• See my Masters best longshots and Make/Miss the Cut picks below

No tournament in golf is more predictive than the Masters. Year after year the event is dominated by the players near the top of the board. Of course there is the odd outlier, but we haven’t seen one of those in quite some time. In fact, the last time a true longshot won the Masters was in 2016. That year, Danny Willet posted under horrific conditions on Sunday, and then watched Jordan Spieth and the rest of the field crumble around him.

So does that mean we should only bet the super elites to win the Green Jacket? Heck no. We just have to make sure we follow a very specific set of guidelines when choosing names further down the odds list.

Masters Best Longshots Odds

I’ll qualify a longshot bet as any golfer priced at +4500 or longer in the 2025 Masters odds. Both Patrick Reed (2018) and Hideki Matsuyama (2021) started the week they won with price tags longer than that, however both closed with shorter odds before the first tee ball was hit. Shane Lowry is our number one choice at +4500, followed by Robert MacIntyre at +6000, and Sepp Straka at +7500.

Odds as of April 8 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on The Masters. 

Masters Longshot Picks

• Shane Lowry (+4500)
• Robert MacIntyre (+6000)
• Sepp Straka (+7500)

In terms of trends I’m following, they are as follows: First and foremost, no debutants. No Masters rookie has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Each of the last 15 winners have ranked inside the top-30 in World Golf Rankings the year they won. Unfortunately, LIV players don’t accumulate OWGR points, rendering that model useless. There are however Data Golf rankings, which take into account how well a player is playing regardless if they’re on LIV or the PGA Tour. We’ll use that as our baseline.

Finally, Major Championship history. No player since 1997 has won the Masters without at least one prior top-20 finish at a Major. Each of our selections fit that criteria, and all enter in solid form.

Let’s start with Lowry. He’s an Open Champion, and is seventh in the Data Golf rankings. Lowry has a T-16 and a T-3 at Augusta over the last three seasons, and enters in great form. The Irishman has finished 11th or better in four of his six 2025 starts, ranking fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and fourth on approach over the last 24 rounds.

Next up, is MacIntyre, who won twice last season and is 17th in Data Golf’s model. He has top-12 results at Augusta, the PGA Championship and Open Championship, and won twice on Tour last year. MacIntyre has three top-11 finishes in his last four starts, and has the advantage of being a lefty. Augusta National favors left-handed golfers, producing multiple titles for Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson, as well as one for Mike Weir.

Finally, there’s Straka, who’s 16th in the Data Golf rankings. The Austrian won on tour earlier in the year, and has five additional top-15 finishes in his last seven starts. He was 16th here a year ago, and has T-7 and a solo 2nd at the PGA Championship and Open Championship respectively.

Masters Make/Miss the Cut Parlay

• Make/Miss the Cut Parlay (+803) – Lowry/MacIntyre/Scott/Spaun/Straka to make, Homa to miss

Let’s move to the make/miss the cut market next. I’ve cooked up +803 parlay, looking to take advantage of the solid course history and form of some, while capitalizing on the poor form of others.

We’re going to anchor it with Lowry, MacIntyre and Straka to all make the weekend. Together, they have 10 straight made cuts at Augusta, with Lowry riding a streak of five Masters made cuts on his own. Those three alone pay +132 to get make the weekend, but there’s more value to be found.

Next, let’s add Adam Scott and J.J. Spaun. Scott has made 15 straight cuts at Augusta, and has trunk slammed only once in his last 14 PGA Tour events. Spaun meanwhile, was 23rd in his first Masters, and ranks top-10 in the field in ball striking and strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds.

Lastly, we’ll target Max Homa to miss the cut. Homa’s game has fallen off a cliff. He’s missed five straight cuts coming in, losing strokes ball striking, putting, and tee-to-green in each start. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks last in total strokes gained among non-seniors in the field, and second last in ball striking.

The Masters Tournament is one of the most prestigious events in golf, attracting the top players from around the world to compete for the coveted green jacket. While the favorites like Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, and Dustin Johnson are always in the spotlight, there are also plenty of longshot contenders who could surprise everyone and make a run at the title.

One of the longshot picks to keep an eye on this year is Cameron Smith. The Australian has been playing some of the best golf of his career recently, with a win at the Sony Open earlier this year and a strong showing at the WGC-Workday Championship. Smith’s game is well-suited to Augusta National, with his accurate iron play and solid putting giving him a chance to contend.

Another longshot to watch is Corey Conners. The Canadian has been quietly putting together a solid season, with a win at the Valero Texas Open and a runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Conners’ ball-striking is among the best on tour, and if he can get his putter going, he could be a dark horse to watch at Augusta.

As for cut predictions, it’s always tough to predict who will struggle at the Masters, as the pressure of playing at Augusta National can get to even the most experienced players. However, one player who could be in danger of missing the cut is Jordan Spieth. The former Masters champion has been struggling with his game recently, and if he can’t find his form quickly, he could find himself on the outside looking in come Friday afternoon.

Another player who could be on the bubble is Rickie Fowler. The fan favorite has been in a slump for the past couple of years, and while he has shown signs of improvement recently, Augusta National can be a tough test for players who are struggling with their game. If Fowler can’t put together four solid rounds, he could be heading home early.

In conclusion, while the favorites will always garner most of the attention at the Masters Tournament, there are plenty of longshot contenders who could make a run at the title. Keep an eye on players like Cameron Smith and Corey Conners, who have the game to compete with the best in the world. And when it comes to cut predictions, don’t be surprised if some big names find themselves on the wrong side of the line come Friday afternoon. It’s all part of the drama and excitement that makes the Masters one of the most thrilling events in golf.