Expert and Computer Predictions for Upsets in Week 16 of the NFL

• Though some of the remaining 15 games of Week 16 are duds, there are a lot of very meaningful games to bet
• I have gathered my SBD formula’s NFL picks for Week 16 & shared my own as well
• See the underdogs we are betting in Week 16 below!

We have entered the third-last week of the 2024-25 NFL regular season, as Week 16 kicked off on Thursday night. There are still 15 more games to be played from Saturday to Monday, and though some games are meaningless outside of draft standing, there are a good handful of games we have the opportunity to bet this weekend!

I have gathered my SBD formula’s computer picks for Week 16 in the NFL, and also shared my own upset picks before looking at what my formula had. As usual, this article is focused on underdogs who are showing value on the moneyline. Although, you will receive moneyline picks for each game of the week below.

My SBD formula and I were only on one upset last week, and we both had the same one. Thankfully, the Cowboys cashed for us, as we each went 1-0 to win +1.35 units. Here’s who we are picking in Week 16!

Week 16 NFL Picks

I am on two upset picks for Week 16, while my SBD formula is predicting three underdogs will win. We do share one pick, which is the 49ers to upset the Dolphins. The moneyline odds above are from when I wrote this article, so be sure you shop for the best line at the time you are reading this as well. You can use our NFL odds page to shop!

If you want NFL moneyline picks for every game, I have technically provided them. My SBD formula has favorites winning every other game in Week 16. However, it does have some close margins you may want to take a shot on:

• Raiders to beat the Jaguars by 0.6 points
• Chiefs to beat the Texans by 2.6 points

It also only has the Steelers beating the Ravens by 0.1 points, and Jets beating the Rams by 0.4 points. That’s as deep as I’m going into my SBD formula for now, but you can read my analysis on the picks I have made below!

Jaguars Over Raiders

Before I dive into this one, I want to be clear that I do not have anything I really like about the Jaguars, but I can say the same thing about the Raiders. I think this is a 50/50 game between two bad teams and I feel any odds longer than +100 (on either side) present value.

The Raiders have the better defense in this matchup, only giving up the sixth-most points in the league versus Jacksonville giving up the fifth-most. Jacksonville has allowed the most yards in the NFL, though, while Las Vegas ranks 12th in that category. However, I don’t think there’s much of an advantage here.

Looking to the two offenses, I do believe Aidan O’Connell, who is expected to play at the time of writing this, is the Raiders’ best option at QB, but I don’t think he has the weapons around him right now. Sincere McCormick appeared to be providing some explosion to the backfield, but he is now likely done for the season. Ameer Abdullah is a decent option as a pass-catching back, but I don’t expect Las Vegas to have much of a running game in this one.

O’Connell will have Brock Bowers out there with him, who has been very good as a rookie, but I don’t think any of the other Raiders’ pass-catchers are going to threaten a bad Jacksonville defense.

I’m not a fan of Mac Jones, but I think he has more around him than O’Connell does. Brian Thomas Jr has also been very good in his first season, but I think we’ll see Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby shine through in this one.

• Pick: Jaguars moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)

49ers Over Dolphins

With Nick Bosa back in the lineup and Dre Greenlaw making his season-debut last week, I believe the 49ers defense is going to be back among the league’s best moving forward. San Francisco already ranked third in total yards allowed, but were 17th in points allowed. I think we’ll see the latter improve in the final three weeks of the season.

The 49ers offensive struggles have me a little concerned in betting them to upset the Dolphins in Week 16, though. They have scored 10 points or less in three of their last four, and 17 points or less in four of their last five. But I believe weather, and of course no Brock Purdy for one of their low-scoring games, has played a role in this. Purdy, like Tua Tagovailoa, has not handled rain or snow well during his pro career. San Francisco’s 10-point performance against the Bills was a game played in a lot of snow, and their six-point outing against the Rams last week was played in the rain.

Yes, the loss of Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk factor into their recent struggles as well, but this is still an offense with enough talent (and a good scheme & play-caller) to score more than ten points per game. Thankfully, there is only a slight chance of rain in Miami on Sunday afternoon (at the time of writing this), and I am willing to take the risk of it being another rain game, because as I mentioned earlier, Tagovailoa doesn’t handle rain/snow well either.

Miami has not impressed me in games against even decent opponents. Their win over the Rams in Week 10 is the lone time they have beaten a decent team this season. In spite of their record, I do believe San Francisco is a decent team and I like them to get a win over the Dolphins.

• Pick: 49ers moneyline (-105 at bet365)

As we head into Week 16 of the NFL season, experts and computer algorithms are busy crunching the numbers and analyzing the matchups to predict potential upsets. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, every game becomes crucial for teams fighting for playoff spots or division titles.

One game that experts are keeping an eye on is the matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have been playing solid football all season and currently sit atop the AFC East. However, the Patriots have been known to come alive in December and could pose a threat to the Bills’ playoff aspirations. Computer algorithms are giving the Patriots a slight edge in this game, predicting a close victory for New England.

Another game that could see an upset is the showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams have been inconsistent this season, while the Vikings have been playing well as of late. Experts believe that the Vikings have a good chance of pulling off the upset in this game, especially with their strong defense and running game. Computer models also favor the Vikings in this matchup.

One more game to watch for a potential upset is the clash between the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints. The Dolphins have been one of the surprise teams of the season, led by their stout defense and opportunistic offense. The Saints, on the other hand, have been dealing with injuries and inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Experts and computer algorithms alike are giving the Dolphins a good chance of pulling off the upset in this game.

While these predictions are based on statistical analysis and expert opinions, anything can happen on any given Sunday in the NFL. Upsets are a common occurrence in this league, and Week 16 is sure to provide some exciting and unpredictable games for fans to enjoy. Stay tuned to see if these predictions hold true or if we’ll see some unexpected outcomes on the field.