- Looking to bet the remaining 15 games of Week 15 in the 2024-25 NFL season?
- My SBD formula and I have offered our NFL picks for Week 15
- See the underdogs we are betting to pull off an upset below
Week 15 marks the first week of no more byes in the 2024-25 NFL season, meaning there are 15 more games to be played across Sunday and Monday. If you wanted to bet any of those games, but weren’t sure which side to pick, or just wanted your bias confirmed, I have teamed up with my SBD formula to offer our Week 15 NFL picks. As usual, we are focused on the underdogs we feel can pull off an upset.
I took a beating on my picks last week, going 0-3. Hitting the Chargers pick would have brought me back close to even, but the Chiefs lucked out another one. My SBD formula did not predict any upsets last week, so it was 0-0. However, two of the three games where it had tight margins of victory ended with the underdog winning, and four of the five dogs it had keeping the game close did end up covering the spread. So, it was a decent week for my formula.
Week 15 NFL Picks
| Expert NFL Moneyline Picks | Computer NFL Moneyline Picks |
|---|---|
| Cowboys over Panthers (+135 at ESPN Bet) | Cowboys over Panthers (+135 at ESPN Bet) |
I only have one upset pick for Week 15, and my SBD formula is only calling for one upset itself. We are both calling for the same upset as well. This has happened before and it will happen again. It’s my formula after all. If you do want to tail us (or even if you want to fade us), be sure you check out our NFL odds page to get the best moneyline odds for all Week 15 games when you are ready to place a bet – the odds I have included above are from when I wrote this article.
If you’re wondering where the rest of my SBD formula’s computer picks are, you technically have them. It has favorites winning every game other than the Cowboys upsetting the Panthers. Going a little further into my SBD formula, though, it has three favorites that its predicting will win their respective game by 4.2 points or less:
- Lions to beat the Bills by 4.2 points
- Chargers to beat the Bucs by 1.8 points
- Eagles to beat the Steelers by 3.1 points
You can do what you like with that information!
If you wanted more than moneyline picks, Zach Reger has published his Week 15 NFL picks against the spread, and John Hyslop has shared his favorite Week 15 NFL player props. But for now, I will share why I like the Cowboys to beat the Panthers below.
Cowboys Over Panthers
Simply put, these are two bad football teams. I typically don’t love betting on bad football teams, but I do like betting against bad football teams. So, I’m looking at this as more of the latter than the former.
The Carolina Panthers rank 28th in points scored and 30th in total yards. Their defense has allowed the most points in the league and the second-most total yards. You could certainly make the argument that Carolina has been better over their last five games, where they have won two of them, and each of their three losses has come by six points or less. But I could say the same thing about the Cowboys over the last three weeks.
Dallas is 2-1 in their last three and their defense has certainly been better since Micah Parsons returned to the lineup. After a pretty quiet game from Parsons last week, I think he serves as a bit of an X-factor in this one. I like him to get some pressure on Bryce Young, and force some errant throws. It may only take a couple of them, as Carolina’s defense hasn’t stopped people very often this season.
Ultimately, I feel much better about the Cowboys offense, led by Cooper Rush, than I do the Panthers offense. Rush has been decent throwing the ball, but Dallas has also found a bit of a running game with Rico Dowdle as the lead back. I think they’ll be able to lean on him and take advantage of a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most yards per rushing attempt.
- Pick: Cowboys moneyline (+135 at ESPN Bet)
As we head into Week 15 of the NFL season, experts and computer algorithms alike are buzzing with predictions for potential upsets. With playoff implications on the line and teams fighting for their postseason lives, anything can happen on any given Sunday. Let’s take a look at some of the matchups that could see a surprise outcome this week.
One game that experts are keeping a close eye on is the matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Carolina Panthers. The Bills are currently fighting for a wild card spot in the AFC, while the Panthers are looking to play spoiler and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Computer algorithms are giving the Panthers a slight edge in this game, citing their strong defense and ability to control the clock as key factors in potentially pulling off the upset.
Another game to watch is the showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams have been one of the surprise teams of the season, but the Seahawks are always a tough out, especially at home. Experts are split on this game, with some favoring the Rams’ high-powered offense and others pointing to the Seahawks’ experience in big games as a potential advantage. Computer models are giving a slight edge to the Rams in this matchup, but anything can happen in this divisional rivalry.
Finally, the New England Patriots will be facing off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that could have major playoff implications. The Patriots are coming off a tough loss to the Miami Dolphins, while the Steelers are looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance against the Oakland Raiders. Experts and computer algorithms alike are giving the edge to the Patriots in this game, citing their experience in big games and Tom Brady’s ability to come through in clutch situations.
Overall, Week 15 of the NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one, with plenty of potential upsets on the horizon. Whether it’s a team fighting for their playoff lives or a powerhouse looking to make a statement, anything can happen in the NFL. Be sure to tune in this weekend to see which teams come out on top and which ones fall victim to an unexpected upset.