Expert and Computer Predictions for Upsets in Week 10 of the NFL

• Looking for some help in betting the remaining 13 games of Week 10 in the 2024-25 NFL season?
• My SBD formula and I offer moneyline picks for each game in Week 10
• See our Week 10 NFL picks below

We were treated to a thrilling start to Week 10 of the 2024-25 NFL season, and now get another 13 games across Sunday and Monday, including an early Sunday game in Munich. If you wanted some help in betting any of the remaining games of Week 10, or just wanted confirmation on a lean, I have shared my NFL picks below, alongside my SBD formula’s predictions.

The NFL picks you’ll find below are focused on the underdogs I am betting to win their respective games outright, as well as the dogs my formula predicts will win their games. I’m looking for a bounce back week after both my formula and I got roughed up last week.

Here’s who we’re betting in Week 10!

Week 10 NFL Picks

This is by far the shortest list of upsets my SBD formula and I have come up with in the last four years. I only have one underdog that I am betting to win their game outright in Week 10, and my SBD formula is predicting zero upsets this week.

So if you were looking for picks for each game, you have gotten them. My formula believes favorites will win every game this week. However, my SBD formula does have very tight margins of victory for the following favorites:

1. Commanders to win by 1.3 points
2. Jets to win by 1 point
3. Rams to win by 2.4 points

So, if you wanted to take any of the underdogs from those games (Steelers, Cardinals, and Dolphins), you can do so knowing my formula sees each one as essentially a coin toss. The New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams are both barely favored in their respective matchups, so there’s a chance we see those lines shift and we might have a predicted upset from my formula. Be sure you’re following me on Twitter/X for further breakdowns of my formula’s predictions, and an alert should we see anything change from above.

The moneyline odds for my Buccaneers pick above were the best odds available at the time of writing this. You’ll want to check our NFL odds page after reading this to go shop for the best moneyline available at that time.

If you wanted more than just moneyline NFL picks, check out Zach Reger’s Week 10 NFL picks against the spread. If you want some analysis on why I like the Bucs this week, keep reading below!

Buccaneers Over 49ers

Before I dive into exactly why I like the Buccaneers to upset the 49ers this week, I want to be clear that this is a value play for me. I don’t think the Bucs have a better than 50% chance to beat San Francisco this week, but I think they have a much better chance than the odds suggest.

Tampa Bay’s moneyline odds are +245 at FanDuel, which implies a 29% probability of them winning the game. I believe their true probability of winning this game is around 45%. Here’s why!

For starters, I really like this Tampa Bay offense. They rank fifth in both total yards and points scored. They’re fourth in average yards per rushing attempt and tenth in net yards per pass attempt. They can attack in a variety of ways and have shown a ton of resiliency in playing without Chris Godwin or Mike Evans in either of their last two games (basically three since they both left early against the Ravens).

After seeing them score 24 points against a very good Chiefs defense (in Kansas City), I’m confident this offense will be able to put up points against what I believe to be an average 49ers defense.

The second point I want to make is around the Bucs’ bad defense, which is 30th in total yards allowed and 28th in points allowed. I think they’re going to get bailed out this Sunday as they take on an offense in transition.

San Francisco is expected to be welcoming Christian McCaffrey back to the lineup after he missed the first nine weeks of the season. It has been a long time since he has played a football game, and I don’t expect him to jump right back into his workhorse role this Sunday. At the time of writing this, however, it sounds like Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings are both truly questionable to play.

I believe the biggest thing the 49ers have been missing without CMC is his big-play potential, especially late in games. Their offense has lacked that killer instinct late in games to put teams away – see their loss to the Cardinals. But again, I’m not sure McCaffrey will be able to provide that right away. So, in a game where I expect the 49ers offense will have to score to keep up, I’m not overly confident they’ll be able to, in spite of seeing a bad defense in front of them.

An added bonus here is that this is a situation where a team from the Pacific Time Zone is traveling to the Eastern Time Zone and being forced to play in the early block on Sunday. Historically, west coast teams do not do well in this scenario, and we saw the 49ers lose to the Vikings in this same scenario in Week 2. Their upset at the hands of the Browns last season also happened in this situation.

Overall, this is a 4-4 San Francisco team, in a tough spot on the road, trying to work their best player back into the offense in his first football game since February. Give me the +245 odds on the Bucs!

• Pick: Buccaneers moneyline (+245 at FanDuel)

As we head into Week 10 of the NFL season, football fans are eagerly anticipating the potential upsets that could shake up the league standings. While expert predictions are always a valuable resource, many are turning to computer algorithms to help forecast which underdog teams might come out on top.

One of the most popular computer prediction models used in the NFL is the Elo rating system. This system takes into account a team’s performance in previous games, as well as the strength of their opponents, to calculate their chances of winning upcoming matchups. According to Elo ratings, some potential upsets to watch out for in Week 10 include the Miami Dolphins over the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons over the Dallas Cowboys.

Another computer prediction model gaining popularity is the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). This model not only considers a team’s performance on the field, but also takes into account factors such as injuries, home-field advantage, and weather conditions. The FPI has identified the New York Giants as a potential upset pick over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10.

While computer algorithms can provide valuable insights into potential upsets, it’s important to remember that football is a game of unpredictability. Upsets can happen at any time, regardless of what the experts or computers may predict. That being said, keeping an eye on these potential upsets in Week 10 could make for an exciting weekend of football for fans and bettors alike.