Expert and computer predictions for potential upsets in Week 6 of the NFL.

• Looking for some advice on how to bet the other 13 games in Week 6 of the 2024-25 NFL season?
• I am offering my NFL picks for Week 6 as well as sharing my SBD formula’s picks
• See the underdogs we are picking to win in Week 6 below

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Week 6 of the 2024-25 NFL season continues on Sunday with 12 games, including an early London game, and concludes with one game on Monday. But before we watch the Jaguars take on the Bears Sunday morning, I wanted to share my favorite NFL picks for Week 6, as well as my SBD formula’s favorite picks.

For the purpose of this article, my “favorite” picks are focused on underdogs I think can pull off the upset. I went 0-2 last week (I tweeted out that I was adding the Patriots once the line shifted towards Miami) with the Colts losing a close one, and my SBD formula took its second straight beating thanks to a couple teams it doesn’t have a great read on at the moment (Bills & Saints).

As is the case each season, though, as my formula takes in more data on each team, the more accurate it tends to become. Check out our favorite NFL picks for Week 6 below!

Week 6 NFL Picks

Once again, I do not have any extra upset picks that my SBD formula is not also calling for. I do want to be clear that I lock in my NFL picks for this article before looking at what my formula is predicting. However, with me being the one who created the formula, it makes sense that I see the board similar to the way it does.

I am only on two underdogs this week, while my formula is on four. Be aware that the odds included in the table above were the best available at the time of writing this. Be sure to check out our NFL odds page after reading this to find the best line available at that time.

If you are hoping to see NFL picks for all 13 remaining games, you can surely figure out that my SBD formula has favorites winning the other nine games. I will disclose that it has the Commanders, Colts, Broncos, and Bengals winning their respective games by three points or less.

Though I won’t get into why my formula likes certain teams, since I intend to keep it my formula, but I will also note that it has a good read on the Panthers, Bears, Bengals, Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Titans, and Commanders (of the teams playing this week), predicting the ATS result in each of their respective games at an 80%+ rate. It has struggled with the Cardinals, Lions, Raiders, and Eagles the most, only getting the ATS result correct in 25% or less of their respective games this season.

Do what you will with that information! If you wanted more than just moneyline picks, you can check out John Hyslop’s Week 6 NFL Player Props, Zach Reger’s Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread, or follow me on Twitter/X to get a deeper dive into my formula’s predictions (as well as some of my other picks this week) for each of the primetime games.

If you wanted some analysis and justification for why I like the two picks above, keep reading below!

Colts Over Titans

The Colts have burned me a couple times this year. I bet them to upset the Texans in Week 1 and the Jaguars last week. They came up just short both times. In spite of being 0-2 when backing Indianapolis, I’m not shying away yet.

As I said last week about Jacksonville, I do not believe Tennessee should be favored over many teams. Will Levis has not played well and is likely holding Brian Callahan’s offense back. The Titans managed 38 yards in the two drives Levis played against the Dolphins, turning the ball over on one of them (an interception) and going 3-and-out on the other. When Mason Rudolph took over under center, Tennessee would score on their next two drives and only had one more 3-and-out the rest of the game – prior to trying to kill the clock late in the 4th quarter because they were up by two scores.

The Titans have already announced that Levis will start their Week 6 game against the Colts, and I don’t have much confidence he will be able to take advantage of Indianapolis’ defense, which has given up the most yards in the NFL, the way others have.

I appreciate the best unit in this game is Tennessee’s defense, but with Anthony Richardson likely (at the time of writing this) to be back under center for the Colts, I think they can be neutralized. After seeing Richardson struggle with his arm in games against the Packers and Bears in Weeks 2 and 3, he looked really good with his arm and legs in the 1.5 series he played against the Steelers.

• Pick: Colts moneyline (+125 at bet365)

Broncos Over Chargers

This is a matchup between basically the same two teams. Both the Chargers and Broncos have leaned heavily on their defenses to win them games. Both have stopped the run well, ranking in the top eight in yards per carry allowed, and it is very difficult to put the ball in the air against either of them, as they rank in the top ten in net yards allowed per pass attempt.

Their offensive approaches have been different, though, and that’s a result of who their respective head coaches are. Sean Payton’s Broncos have attempted the 13th-most passes in the league, while the Chargers have attempted the fewest. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers have been focused on establishing the run, calling the 11th-most rushing plays in the league, while the Broncos are 19th in rushing attempts.

For the average fan, I think this is likely to be a pretty boring game. But football enthusiasts are going to be extremely excited watching the Chargers’ tackles, who are both returning from Week 4 absences, take on the Broncos defensive line, which has been dominant to this point. I think LA will have to win this battle consistently in order for them to come out of Mile High with a win, because I don’t think their wide receivers will be able to do anything against Denver’s DBs.

We have seen the Broncos elite corners shutdown the Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Jets (rain-assisted) this season. If the likes of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Garrett Wilson were locked up by the Broncos, I don’t like Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Josh Palmer’s chances of getting open.

Denver is going to continue to leave their DBs on islands to commit to stopping the run, and I think they’ll be successful in doing so. I have seen enough improvement from Bo Nix week-over-week to give me confidence that he’ll be able to put some points on the board against a good Chargers defense.

This line suggests the Chargers are about six points better than Denver and I strongly disagree.

• Pick: Broncos moneyline (+140 at ESPN Bet)

Week 6 of the NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one, with several matchups that have the potential for upsets. Experts and computer algorithms have been hard at work analyzing the upcoming games and predicting which teams might come out on top in surprising fashion.

One game that has caught the attention of many experts is the matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans. The Bills have been on a hot streak, boasting a 4-1 record and one of the best offenses in the league. However, the Titans have shown flashes of brilliance this season and could potentially pull off an upset at home. Computer algorithms are split on this game, with some favoring the Bills and others giving the edge to the Titans.

Another game to keep an eye on is the showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Giants. The Rams have been dominant so far this season, but the Giants have shown improvement in recent weeks and could surprise everyone with a win. Experts are divided on this matchup, with some predicting a blowout victory for the Rams and others envisioning a close game that could go either way.

One of the most intriguing games of Week 6 is the clash between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears. The Packers have been one of the top teams in the league, led by star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, the Bears have a strong defense that could potentially stifle Rodgers and pull off an upset at home. Computer algorithms are leaning towards the Packers in this game, but experts caution that anything can happen in a divisional rivalry matchup.

Overall, Week 6 of the NFL season is shaping up to be full of potential upsets. While experts and computer algorithms can provide valuable insights, it’s important to remember that anything can happen on any given Sunday in the NFL. Fans should buckle up and get ready for an exciting weekend of football action.