Expert Analysis: Grizzlies vs Warriors Play-In Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions

• The Warriors look to end a run of three straight Play-In Tournament losses when they host the Grizzlies tonight
• The Dubs took three of four from the Grizzlies in the regular season
• See the Grizzlies vs Warriors odds, picks, and predictions for April 15

The Golden State Warriors (48-34, 24-17 home, 41-38-3 ATS, 41-41 O/U) host the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34, 22-19 away, 41-40-1 ATS, 46-36 O/U) at the Chase Center on Tuesday night (7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET). The winner will earn the #7 seed in the West and a best-of-seven first-round series against the #2 Houston Rockets in the 2025 NBA playoff bracket.

The first table below sets out where bettors can find the best spread, moneyline, and total for both teams as of Tuesday morning. Under the table, find my Grizzlies vs Warriors picks and predictions.

Grizzlies vs Warriors Odds

The Grizzlies vs Warriors spread still has a full one-point range as of Tuesday morning, with BetMGM listing the number as low as Warriors -6.5 and ESPN Bet as high as Warriors -7.5, though ESPN Bet has -120 odds on Memphis covering that larger number.

Odds as of 9:26 am ET. Download the best NBA betting apps to wager on the 2025 Play-In Tournament.

On the moneyline, the Grizzlies are priced as long as +260 at Caesars and +255 at bet365 in Tuesday’s NBA odds. All other sites have Memphis as +250 or shorter. The best moneyline price on the Warriors currently is -303 (1.33 decimal) at BetMGM. The Dubs are as short as -335 at Caesars.

There is only a half-point range in the game total: the vast majority of sportsbooks have it at 229.5 but FanDuel has it a little lower at 229 flat with -112 odds on the over.

The NBA public betting splits for Tuesday show the Warriors getting the majority of moneyline handle (63%) and even more of the ML tickets (85%). But the public is more conflicted when it comes to the spread, putting exactly 50% of ATS handle on each side and 51% of ATS wagers on Memphis. With respect to the total, the public is hammering the under: 88% of O/U handle and 87% of O/U bets.

The discrepancy between Golden State’s price in the 2025 NBA Championship odds (as short as +1400 at BetMGM) and Memphis’ price (as long as +30000 at bet365) is stunning. The Dubs have a 6.67% implied win probability while the Grizzlies are well half a percent (0.33%).

Grizzlies vs Warriors Picks & Prediction

The Warriors did take three of four from Memphis during the regular season but all three wins were competitive, unlike the Grizzlies’ lone victory, which was a 144-93 laugher in Memphis.

Back on Nov. 15, the Dubs won 123-118 at home. On Jan. 4, Golden State took a 121-113 home victory. And, most recently, on April 1, Golden State earned a 134-125 road win in a game that was tied after three quarters. Both teams were 2-2 ATS in those four regular-season meetings.

The Warriors also finished the regular season with a higher Net Rating than Golden State: +4.7 (sixth-best in the NBA) vs +3.2 (tenth).

MEM vs GSW Advanced Stats

Of course, Golden State has only had Jimmy Butler on the roster since early February. The main reason the Warriors are such heavy favorites on Tuesday – and have such short NBA title odds – is how they played with the former Heat star on the floor. In 30 games with Butler, Golden State went a sublime 23-7 straight-up, and two of those setbacks came when Steph Curry was injured.

Butler has been a consummate playoff performer his entire career. He’s averaged 18.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 4.3 APG in the regular season over his 16-year-career. In the postseason, those numbers jump to 21.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 4.6 APG. And though Golden State fell on the final day of the regular season to the Clippers (124-119 OT) in a game that would have kept them out of the Play-In Tournament, Butler dropped 30 points with nine dimes and just one turnover in 48 minutes of action, shooting 12-of-20 from the field.

While their were some stumbles down the stretch (losing three of five to close out the season), the Warriors showed a new level when Butler was paired with Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Ja Morant and the Grizzlies are also riding a six-game road losing streak in the playoffs dating back to the 2022 postseason, so I’m not prepared to bet Memphis to win straight-up.

That said, the Warriors have long had their struggles in the Play-In Tournament – going 0-3 all-time in the newest edition to the NBA playoffs – and this is a sizable spread they’re being asked to cover. I like the value on Memphis +7 (-105) at bet365.

• Grizzlies vs Warriors pick: Memphis +7 (-105) at bet365

The NBA Play-In Tournament is set to kick off with an exciting matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors. Both teams have had successful seasons and are looking to secure a spot in the playoffs. Let’s take a closer look at the odds, picks, and predictions for this highly anticipated game.

The Grizzlies finished the regular season with a record of 38-34, earning them the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Led by young stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis has shown they have what it takes to compete with the best teams in the league. They have a strong defense and a balanced scoring attack that could cause problems for the Warriors.

On the other hand, the Warriors finished with a record of 39-33, securing the ninth seed in the West. Despite missing their star player, Klay Thompson, for the entire season, Golden State has managed to stay competitive thanks to the stellar play of Stephen Curry. The two-time MVP has been on a tear lately, averaging over 30 points per game and leading the league in scoring.

When it comes to the odds for this game, the Warriors are currently listed as slight favorites, with most sportsbooks giving them a -2.5 point spread. This is likely due to the presence of Curry, who has proven time and time again that he can carry his team to victory. However, the Grizzlies are not to be underestimated, as they have shown they can compete with anyone in the league.

In terms of picks and predictions, this game is expected to be a close one. Both teams have a lot on the line and will be playing with a sense of urgency. The key matchup to watch will be between Morant and Curry, as both players will look to take over the game for their respective teams.

Ultimately, I believe the Warriors will come out on top in this game. Curry’s scoring ability and playoff experience give Golden State the edge in what should be a hard-fought battle. However, don’t count out the Grizzlies, as they have shown they can rise to the occasion in big moments.

In conclusion, the Grizzlies vs Warriors Play-In Tournament matchup is sure to be a thrilling contest between two talented teams. With playoff implications on the line, both sides will be looking to leave it all on the court. It’s anyone’s game, but I’m giving the slight edge to the Warriors in what should be a close and exciting matchup.