Nov 28, 2022; Lusail, Qatar; Portugal forward Cristiano Ronaldo (7) moves the ball against Uruguay during the second half of the group stage match in the 2022 World Cup at Lusail Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
- High-scoring Portugal faces defensively-stout Slovenia in the round of 16 on Monday at Euro 2024
- Slovenia only conceded twice in the group stage, including a 0-0 draw with England, but is still a massive underdog to Portugal
- See the Portugal vs Slovenia odds, predictions, and best bets for Monday’s game at the Waldstadion in Frankfurt
The smallest nation at Euro 2024 hopes to make further history on Monday as Slovenia (0-3-0, 3 PTS, +0 GD) clash with heavily-favored Portugal (2-0-1, 6 PTS, +2 GD) in a round of 16 battle at the Waldstadion in Frankfurt at 3:00 pm ET.
A +160 underdog to make it out of the group stage, Slovenia managed three straight draws against Denmark, Serbia, and England, and qualified by the skin of their teeth: Slovenia was the fourth and final third-placed team to make it, edging out Hungary on goal differential.
The Portugal vs Slovenia odds portend a swift exit for the nation of just 2.1 million. though, listing Portugal as a -278 favorite to win in regular time and a -700 favorite to qualify for the quarterfinals.
Portugal vs Slovenia Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total | To Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | -278 | Over 2.5 (-110) | -700 |
| Slovenia | +1050 | Under 2.5 (-110) | +450 |
| Draw | +390 | — | — |
Slovenia comes back as a +1050 underdog to win in regular time and +450 to advance. A 90-minute draw is priced at +390.
The over/under is sitting at 2.5 goals with -110 odds both ways.
Odds in table are bet365’s “Enhanced Odds” as of June 30. Click here to claim a bet365 bonus code for Portugal vs Slovenia on Monday.
Portugal enters the round of 16 as the fifth-favorite to win the tournament in the latest Euro 2024 odds at +675. Slovenia is the longest shot left on the board at +28500.
Slovenia is likely to enter Monday a confident group, though. Not only did they take points off three higher-ranked team in the group stage, they haven’t tasted defeat in nine straight matches, which includes a 2-0 home win over Portugal in a friendly back on March 26.
Slovenia Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 5 | Jun 25, 2024 | Neutral | D 0-0 |
| Serbia | 32 | Jun 20, 2024 | Neutral | D 1-1 |
| Denmark | 21 | Jun 16, 2024 | Neutral | D 1-1 |
| Bulgaria | 82 | Jun 8, 2024 | Home | D 1-1 |
| Armenia | 96 | Jun 4, 2024 | Home | W 2-1 |
| Portugal | 6 | Mar 26, 2023 | Away | W 2-0 |
| Malta | 172 | Mar 21, 2024 | Away | D 2-2 |
| USA | 11 | Jan 20, 2023 | Away | W 1-0 |
| Kazakhstan | 109 | Nov 20, 2023 | Home | W 2-1 |
| Denmark | 21 | Nov 17, 2023 | Neutral | L 2-1 |
The Slovenians certainly had the benefit of a fairly weak qualifying group in the build-up to Euro 2024, but their performance was nonetheless impressive. Lumped in with Denmark, Finland, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, and San Marino, they went 7-1-2, tied with Denmark on 22 points, and had a group-bets +11 goal differential (conceding just nine times in the ten games).
Manager Matjaž Kek has his team playing fiercely disciplined defense and has the benefit of arguably the best keeper in the world in the form of Atletico Madrid’s Jan Oblak, who made nine saves during the group stage and conceded just two goals despite Slovenia surrendering 4.16 x GA.
Both of Slovenia’s goals in qualifying came from defenders: Erik Janza scored an 77th-minute equalizer against Denmark, while Zan Karnicnik put his team ahead 1-0 in the 69th minute against Serbia. High-priced RB Leipzig forward Benjamin Sesko led the team in qualifying with five goals in nine matches.
Portugal Last 10 Matches
| Opponent | Opp. FIFA Rank | Date | Location | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 74 | Jun 26, 2024 | Neutral | L 2-0 |
| Turkey | 42 | Jun 22, 2024 | Neutral | W 3-0 |
| Czechia | 34 | Jun 18, 2024 | Neutral | W 2-1 |
| Ireland | 60 | Jun 11, 2024 | Home | W 3-0 |
| Croatia | 9 | Jun 8, 2024 | Home | L 2-1 |
| Finland | 63 | Mar 4, 2023 | Home | W 4-2 |
| Slovenia | 57 | Mar 26, 2024 | Away | L 2-0 |
| Sweden | 28 | Nov 21, 2023 | Home | W 5-2 |
| Iceland | 70 | Nov 19, 2023 | Home | W 2-0 |
| Liechtenstein | 199 | Nov 16, 2023 | Away | W 2-0 |
Portugal, meanwhile, continued its string of mercurial performances in the group stage. They looked like world-beaters over the first two games, completely dominating during a 2-1 win over Czechia and a 3-0 victory over Turkey. Resting a handful of usual starters against 74th-ranked Georgia in the finale, they failed to find the back of the net in a 2-0 defeat, which was the biggest upset of the knockout stage. (Georgia was as long as +800 to win.)
The pre-tournament friendlies were similar. Portugal absolutely dominated Ireland 3-0, controlling 65% of possession and allowing just one shot on target. But they lost at home to Croatia (2-1), conceding 2.72 xGA and seven shots on target.
Portugal was arguably the most-impressive team in qualifying, going a perfect 10-0-0 with a UEFA-best +34 goal difference. But they also didn’t have to face a team ranked higher than 45th (Slovakia).
The team got goals from Francisco Conceicao, Bruno Silva, and Bruno Fernandes during the group stage, plus a pair of own goals from Turkey’s Samet Akaydin and Czechia’s Robin Hranac.
Portugal vs Slovenia Predictions
Portugal is going to control the vast majority of possession and create the majority of chances, but that’s a style that counter-attacking Slovenia is used to. The same scenario played out in their draws with England and Denmark, and indeed during their recent 2-0 victory over the Portuguese.
Slovenia +0.5 is priced at +230 at DraftKings, which amounts to just a 30.3% implied probability and undervalues Matjaž Kek’s team. Portugal isn’t neighbor Spain; they aren’t inevitable and routinely play subpar games.
POR vs SLO picks:
- Slovenia +0.5 (+230) at DraftKings
- Under 2.5 (-108) at FanDuel
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 23-7-1 (+17.27 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The Euro 2024 Round of 16 is set to kick off with an exciting match-up between Portugal and Slovenia. Both teams have shown strong performances in the group stage, making this a highly anticipated game for football fans around the world. In this article, we will analyze the odds, predictions, and best bets for this crucial match.
Portugal, the defending champions of Euro 2020, have been in solid form so far in the tournament. Led by their star player Cristiano Ronaldo, the Portuguese team has shown their attacking prowess and defensive solidity. On the other hand, Slovenia has surprised many with their impressive performances in the group stage. With talented players like Josip Ilicic and Kevin Kampl, Slovenia has shown that they are a force to be reckoned with.
In terms of odds, Portugal is the clear favorite to win this match. The odds for Portugal to win are currently at 1.75, while the odds for Slovenia to win are at 4.50. The odds for a draw are at 3.50. These odds reflect the strong performances of both teams in the group stage, with Portugal being the more experienced and higher-ranked team.
In terms of predictions, it is expected to be a closely contested match between Portugal and Slovenia. Both teams have shown their quality in the group stage and will be looking to secure a spot in the quarter-finals. Portugal’s attacking prowess and defensive solidity give them the edge in this match, but Slovenia’s talented players could cause an upset.
As for the best bets for this match, one option could be to bet on Portugal to win with both teams scoring. This bet offers good value considering Portugal’s attacking prowess and Slovenia’s ability to score goals. Another option could be to bet on over 2.5 goals in the match, as both teams have shown their attacking capabilities in the group stage.
Overall, the Euro 2024 Round of 16 match between Portugal and Slovenia promises to be an exciting and closely contested affair. With both teams in good form, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top and secures a spot in the quarter-finals. Betting on Portugal to win with both teams scoring or on over 2.5 goals in the match could be good options for this game.
