Divisional Round NFL Picks Against the Spread

• Just eight teams remain in the NFL Playoffs
• Two NFL Divisional Round games kick off on Saturday, January 18, and two are played on Sunday, January 19
• See below for SBD’s picks against the spread for this weekend of NFL Playoff games

The NFL Divisional Round is here. Three of the four matchups this weekend feature teams who have already played each other this season. Only the Commanders and Lions have not played.

I went 4-2 last week with my NFL ATS picks for Wildcard Weekend. Keep reading to see who I am betting on this weekend.

NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread

Odds as of Thursday, January 16 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the best DraftKings promo code before locking in your NFL bets this weekend.

ATS Pick #1: Chiefs -8.5 vs Texans

The Texans got a huge win over the Chargers last weekend. After a slow start, they exploded to a 32-12 win to advance to advance to the next round. Joe Mixon and Nico Collins had great performances to lead them to victory, however, this week will be a much different story in Kansas City.

Houston played at home in their dome, and now they have to travel to Arrowhead where the temperature is supposed to be in the 20s. This season, Houston’s offense has not looked as explosive as it did last year, and CJ Stroud is the second-most sacked quarterback in the league. He now he has to face Chris Jones and Kansas City’s defense.

In the games where the Texans have looked good on offense, it has been because of Joe Mixon and their rushing attack. He will have a difficult matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows just 4.1 yards per carry. If Houston cannot run the ball and becomes one-dimensional, they could be in for a long day.

It is scary laying points with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even with how dominant they have been, they tend to play in close games. This one, on the other hand, I can see getting away from the Texans. Houston’s defense is one of the top units in the league, but Kansas City is well-rested and their offense seemed to be peaking at the right time to end the regular season. I trust Mahomes to get enough points to give the Chiefs a lead, then I do not see how Houston’s offense will score many points against Kansas City’s defense in the cold. I will lay the 8.5 points with the Chiefs.

• NFL Divisional Round Pick: Chiefs -8.5 (-105) 

ATS Pick #2: Eagles -6 vs Rams

The Rams have to travel across the country to face the Eagles in the Divisional Round. Even though they were the home team, their first game of the playoffs was played in Arizona, so there is even more travel for this team than normal over this span. They will also be on short rest after playing Monday night. That is a tough spot for the Rams who will be playing outdoors in Philadelphia where there could be freezing rain.

The Eagles’ game plan is simple: play great defense and run the ball, and they have been incredible at both this season. This recipe has led them to win 13 of their last 14 games. With Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and their offensive line, Philadelphia is averaging 169 rushing yards per game. Then their defense has allowed 20 or more points just once over their last seven games.

Last time Saquon Barkley played the Rams he had 300 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/VGRPMbm5xw

— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) January 14, 2025

The Rams’ defense has not been bad, but they have struggled against the run. In Philadephia’s 37-20 win over the Rams earlier this season, Saquon Barkley had 302 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. While I don’t expect him to put up those exact numbers again, I do expect the Eagles to lean on Saquon and for him to have success against Los Angeles. I like the Eagles to cover the spread vs the Rams on Sunday.

• NFL Divisional Round Pick: Eagles -6 (-110) 

ATS Pick #3: Ravens -1.5 vs Bills

The NFL odds originally had the Bills as favorites in this game, but that has since changed. The Ravens are now -1.5 at Buffalo on Sunday night. This should be the game of the weekend as the two favorites in the NFL MVP odds play each other in the postseason.

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have played each other four times in their careers, and the series is tied 2-2. Baltimore, however, is 3-1 against the spread in those games. Earlier this season, the Ravens defeated the Bills 35-10 on the back of Derrick Henry who had 209 total yards and four total touchdowns. This game should be closer than that, but Derrick Henry should play a big role in this game.

The Bills have struggled to stop the run this season, so even with their defense getting healthier, they will have their hands full with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The Broncos had just 79 rushing yards vs the Bills last week, but Denver has not had a rushing attack all season.

Both of these teams have looked unstoppable heading into this game, but I still give the edge to Baltimore. I trust the Ravens’ defense to make a stop when needed more than I do the Bills’. The Ravens beat this team once already this season, and they should do it again behind Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and their defense. I agree with the line movement in this one and believe the Ravens will cover the short spread.

• NFL Divisional Round Pick: Ravens -1.5 (-102) 

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is always an exciting time for football fans, as the best teams in the league face off in do-or-die matchups. With only eight teams left standing, the stakes are high and every game is crucial. For bettors looking to make some money during this exciting time, picking against the spread can be a great way to add some extra excitement to the games.

In the Divisional Round, each game features a matchup between the top two teams in each conference, with the winners advancing to the conference championship games. This round often produces some of the most competitive and closely contested games of the playoffs, making it a prime opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the point spread.

When making picks against the spread in the Divisional Round, it’s important to consider a few key factors. First and foremost, you’ll want to take into account each team’s recent form and momentum heading into the game. Teams that are playing well and coming off strong performances are more likely to cover the spread than those that are struggling or dealing with injuries.

You’ll also want to look at each team’s head-to-head matchups during the regular season, as well as their performance against common opponents. This can give you valuable insight into how the teams match up and how they might perform in the upcoming game.

In addition, it’s important to consider the betting trends and public perception surrounding each game. Sometimes, the public will heavily favor one team over another, leading to inflated point spreads that may not accurately reflect the true strength of each team. By keeping an eye on these trends and looking for value in underdogs or overlooked teams, you can often find opportunities to make profitable picks against the spread.

As for specific picks in the Divisional Round, it’s always wise to do your own research and analysis before making any bets. However, some key matchups to watch in this year’s Divisional Round include the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs taking on the Cleveland Browns, as well as a showdown between two high-powered offenses in the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams.

Ultimately, picking against the spread in the Divisional Round can be a fun and potentially profitable way to enjoy the playoffs. By considering key factors like recent form, head-to-head matchups, and betting trends, you can increase your chances of making successful picks and coming out ahead during this exciting time in the NFL season.