Copa America: Argentina vs Ecuador Match Preview, Predictions, Picks, and Best Odds for July 4th

Jun 9, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Argentina forward Lionel Messi (10) dribbles the ball against Ecuador during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

• Title-holders Argentina meet Ecuador in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Copa America
• Argentina won all three of its group-stage games without conceding a goal and are 6-1-0 against Ecuador since 2017
• See the Argentina vs Ecuador odds, predictions, and best bets for Thursday, July 4

After breezing through the group stage, Argentina (3-0-0, +5 GD) continue their quest for a second straight Copa America title against Ecuador in the quarterfinals on Thursday, July 4, at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, at 8:00 pm CT/9:00 pm ET.

Argentina have dominated the recent head-to-head against their South American rivals, going undefeated in the last seven with six victories. They are heavily favored to make it seven of eight in Thursday’s Argentina vs Ecuador odds.

JUMP TO THE PICKS

Argentina vs Ecuador Odds

Argentina head into the quarterfinals as -208 favorites to win in regular time and massive -500 favorites to advance to the Copa semifinals. Ecuador is a +760 longshot to win in 90 minutes and +350 to qualify for the next round. A full-time draw is currently priced at +325.

Odds as of July 3 at bet365. Claim a bet365 bonus code to wager on the Copa America knockout stage. 

Argentina are also the outright favorite to win the tournament, currently +128 on average in the 2024 Copa America odds. Ecuador is a +2800 bet to win its first Copa championship.

As mentioned, Argentina has dominated the recent head-to-head with Ecuador, winning six of seven matches since 2017 and outscoring La Tricolor by an absurd 16-3 in the process.

Argentina vs Ecuador Recent H2H History

Three of those last seven matches came at neutral sites, including a 1-0 Argentina win in a pre-tournament friendly on July 9, 2024. Argentina controlled 65% of possession in that friendly and generated 11 shots (four on target) while conceding just one shot attempt (none on target) to Ecuador.

With three wins in three during the group stage, Argentina improved its record over the past ten games to 9-0-1, with the only blemish a stunning 2-0 defeat at home to Uruguay during World Cup qualifying.

Argentina Last 10 Matches

Though he’s come off the bench in two of three Copa games, Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez has been the start of the tournament so far, scoring four of Argentina’s five goals (including each of the last four) as they breezed past Canada (2-0), Chile (1-0), and Peru (2-0).

Emi Martinez hasn’t been forced into action too often, but did make a couple of outstanding saves against Chile while the match was still knotted at zeroes.

Lionel Messi sat out the final group-stage game against Peru due to a mild leg injury but he’s expected to be in the starting 11 on Thursday. He has one assist

Ecuador Last 10 Matches

Including a 1-1-1 record in the Copa group stage, Ecuador is 5-3-2 in its past ten games. They haven’t beaten a team ranked higher than 40th in the world in that span, though (Chile), and three of the five wins came against teams outside of the top 75 (Honduras, Bolivia, Guatemala).

Ecuador is currently a respectable fifth in CONMEBOL’S 2026 World Cup qualifying with a 3-2-1 record after six games and a +2 goal differential (5 GF, 3 GA). But they have yet to face Brazil and still have away matches at Uruguay and Colombia to come.

Ecuador’s group-stage goals came from Brighton forward Jeremy Sarmiento (when his team was down to ten men against Venezuela), 17-year-old midfielder Kendry Paez, and Cercle Brugge striker Alan Minda.

Ecuador also benefited from an own goal by Jamaica midfielder Kasey Palmer.

Star striker Enner Valencia’s absence from that list is only mildly concerning. He was sent off after just 22 minutes in the tournament-opener against Venezuela and was then suspended against Jamaica.

Ecuador generated 3.88 xGF during the group stage while allowing 3.65 xGA. Those numbers would have been skewed more heavily towards Ecuador if they hadn’t played over 70 minutes of 10-vs-11 against Venezuela.

 Argentina vs Ecuador Prediction & Picks

Argentina hasn’t conceded a goal to date in the tournament and I don’t expect the first to come from an Ecuador team that they’ve absolutely manhandled over the last seven years. The 34-year-old Valencia is showing his age and was basically invisible in Ecuador’s 0-0 draw against Mexico. It’s true that Ecuador appeared to be playing for the draw, which was all they needed to advance, but bettors can expect a similarly defensive-minded game plan against Argentina.

Argentina’s own attack hasn’t been all too sharp, and has been very slow to get going so far. All five of their goals came in the second half. I don’t think that’s entirely accidental. They have appeared content to control the ball and wear down the opposing midfield/defense over the first 45 minutes before employing a much more ferocious gameplan in the final 45 minutes.

Ecuador has a rock-solid defense that should hold up for a half.

ARG vs ECU Picks:

• Ecuador under 0.5 goals (-150) at ESPN Bet – 1.50 UNITS
• No goal before 33:00 minutes (-120) at bet365 – 2.0 UNITS

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 29-12-1 (+18.37 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Politics
Tennis
MMA
Sportsbooks
Gambling