Comparing Switzerland and Italy: Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets for Round of 16 at Euro 2024

Nov 28, 2022; Doha, Qatar; Switzerland midfielder Remo Freuler (8) moves the ball against Brazil in the first half of a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Stadium 974. Mandatory Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports

• Switzerland vs Italy kicks-off the round of 16 at Euro 2024 on Saturday, June 29
• Italy are favored over the Swiss, who went 1-2-0 in a difficult Group A
• Below, see the Switzerland vs Italy odds, predictions, and best bets

After an impressive showing in the group stage, finishing just behind host Germany in Group A, Switzerland (1-2-0) draw a dangerous and disciplined Italy squad in the round of 16 at Euro 2024. Switzerland vs Italy is the first match of the knockout stage, scheduled for 12:00 pm ET on Saturday, June 29, at Olympiastadion in Berlin.

The Italians are slight favorites to advance in the Switzerland vs Italy odds but both teams are in plus-money to win in regular time.

Switzerland vs Italy Odds

The three-way moneyline lists Italy at +145 to win, Switzerland at +254, and the draw at +202. The over/under goal total heavily favors under 2.5 (-200) with the over at +162. The alternate goal total of 1.5 actually has a narrower line, priced at -188o/+150u.

In the group stage, Italy went over in its first match against Albania (2-1 win) but stayed under against Spain (1-0 loss) and Croatia (1-1 draw). Same goes for Switzerland, which went over in a 3-1 victory over Hungary to start the Euros before 1-1 draws against both Scotland and Germany.

Odds as of June 27 at bet365. See the available bet365 promotions for Euro 2024. 

Italy and Switzerland met three times in 2021. Italy won 3-0 in the group stage of Euro 2020 (which was delayed due to COVID) while the teams played to 1-1 and 0-0 draws during qualification for the 2022 World Cup. Italy holds a massive 29-24-7 lead in the all-time head-to-head, according to 11v11.com, but prior to their trio of matches in 2021, they hadn’t met since 2010.

Italy enters the round of 16 as the joint seventh-favorite to win the tournament in the Euro 2024 odds at +1600. Switzerland is ninth of the 16 remaining teams at +3400.

Switzerland Recent Results

Switzerland’s two 1-1 draws in the group stage continued a (somewhat concerning) trend for the team. The Swiss have now drawn six of their last 10 matches overall (five by a 1-1 scoreline with one scoreless draw as well). While a draw with Germany in Frankfurt is certainly a positive result, the single point against Scotland was reminiscent of recent draws against Austria, Kosovo, and Israel: Switzerland was the stronger team for the majority of all three of those matches yet couldn’t find a path to victory.

In the group stage, Switzerland got goals from five different players: Kwadwo Duah, Michel Aebischer, and Breel Embolo tallied against Hungary; Xherdan Shaqiri scored against Scotland; and Dan Ndoye staked the Swiss to a 1-0 lead against Germany before a last-minute equalizer denied Switzerland what would have been a massive victory.

Ndoye and Embolo also had goals ruled out for offside against Scotland.

Italy Recent Results

Italy started the tournament in the worst possible fashion, conceding the fastest-ever Euro goal just 32 seconds into their opening game against underdog Albania. They managed to take the lead with a pair of goals in the next 15 minutes and largely controlled the tempo from there on out during the 2-1 victory, but it’s somewhat concerning that Italy’s next goal wouldn’t come for another 268-plus minutes.

After a well-deserved 1-0 loss to Spain, in which Italy mustered just four shot attempts and one shot on target, it took Italy the full 90 minutes plus all of the eight minutes of stoppage time to find a goal against Croatia, which – as it turns out – was necessary to secure Italy’s progression.  (Slovenia, the fourth and final third-place team to qualify for the round of 16, also had three points after the group stage but would have beaten Italy on goal differential.)

Italy’s three goals in the group stage came from defender Alessandro Bastoni, midfielder Nicolo Barella, and substitute forward Mattia Zaccagni, whose last-minute equalizer against Croatia instantly entered the annals of Italian history.

Switzerland vs Italy Projected Lineups

Ricardo Calafiori, the anchor of the Italian backline and arguably their best player in the tournament so far, is suspended after picking up another yellow card last time out. Roma defender Gianluca Mancini figures to slot into his spot in central defense.

For Switzerland, reliable defender/midfielder Silvan Widmer is out due to suspension. Many expect Ndoye to move back into the midfield while Nico Elvedi takes Ndoye’s place on the right wing. But that would be an offensively-aggressive move and it may not align with the style Murat Yakin wants to play against Gli Azzurri.

Switzerland vs Italy Prediction

Both teams are capable of playing resilient and disciplined defense when called upon. In their last 16 matches (i.e. eight each), they have combined for three 0-0 draws and six more 1-1 draws. As we saw in the final round of group-stage matches – which averaged just 1.67 goals per game and included three 0-0 draws – when the stakes are raised, the vast majority of teams are reverting to a defense-first approach at Euro 2024.

The open, attacking style that characterized the first week of this tournament is, unfortunately for fans, gone and not likely to return until the Nations League matches in September.

Overall, I expect a cagey draw that starts with a scoreless first half.

SWI vs ITA picks:

• Draw (+202) at bet365
• First-half under 0.5 (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 17-5 (+13.52 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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