College Football Week 4: UCLA vs LSU Odds, Spread, and Prediction

• LSU is a 21.5-point favorite over UCLA in CFB Week 4
• Will the Tigers cover the large spread at home against the Bruins?
• Read below for our LSU vs UCLA prediction and odds breakdown

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The UCLA Bruins (1-1) will travel to Death Valley to take on the No. 16 LSU Tigers (2-1) in a Week 4 college football showdown on Saturday, September 21, 2024. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET at the iconic Tiger Stadium, with the game being televised on ABC.

LSU enters the contest as a heavy 22.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 56.5 points. Will Brian Kelly’s team be able to cover the large spread in Baton Rouge?

Let’s dive further into the LSU vs UCLA odds and provide our Week 4 college football prediction.

UCLA vs LSU Odds

The CFB odds heavily favor the LSU Tigers in this matchup, with a -1600 moneyline implying a 95.2% chance of victory. The Bruins, on the other hand, are significant underdogs with a +900 moneyline, translating to just a 9.1% implied probability of pulling off the upset.

The spread has moved notably in favor of UCLA since the opening line, with LSU now favored by 21.5 points, down from the initial 24-point spread. This shift can be attributed to bettors recognizing UCLA’s potential to keep the game closer than initially anticipated, as well as LSU’s slow start to the season.

As for the over/under, the total is set at 56.5 points, with both the over and under carrying identical -110 moneylines. This suggests a relatively balanced expectation for the game’s total points scored.

It’s worth noting that both teams have struggled against the spread this season. UCLA is 0-2 ATS, while LSU is 0-3. Additionally, the Bruins are 0-1 against the spread on the road, while the Tigers are 0-1 at home. Neither team has covered the number thus far.

H2H History

Date	Result
2021	UCLA 38, LSU 27

The only recent head-to-head meeting between UCLA and LSU occurred in 2021, with the Bruins emerging victorious in a 38-27 upset win.

However, it’s important to note that both teams have undergone significant changes since then, making it challenging to draw direct comparisons to the upcoming 2024 matchup.

Bruins Betting Analysis

The Bruins have had a mixed start to their 2024 campaign, narrowly defeating Hawaii 16-13 in the season opener before suffering a humbling 42-13 loss to Indiana at home in Week 3. Despite the setback, UCLA boasts promising talent on both sides of the ball.

Senior quarterback Ethan Garbers has thrown for 409 yards and a TD through two games. The dual-threat signal-caller also poses a threat on the ground, having rushed for 68 yards thus far. Garbers’ experience and versatility will be key to keeping this game close.

On the receiving end, Rico Flores Jr. has emerged as a reliable target, hauling in five receptions for 133 yards and a touchdown. The Bruins will likely lean on Flores Jr. to stretch the field and create big-play opportunities against the Tigers’ secondary.

While UCLA’s offense has shown flashes of promise, the defense has been a cause for concern, allowing an average of 27.5 points per game. The Bruins will need to shore up their defensive efforts to slow down LSU’s potent offense and keep the game within reach.

Tigers Betting Analysis

LSU, led by head coach Brian Kelly, has rebounded nicely from a season-opening loss to USC, securing wins over Nicholls State (44-21) and South Carolina (36-33) in the following weeks. The Tigers’ success can be attributed to the strong play of several key contributors.

Junior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been impressive, completing 69.6% of his passes for 891 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Nussmeier’s ability to efficiently distribute the ball to his playmakers has been a driving force behind LSU’s offensive resurgence.

The wait was worth it for Garrett Nussmeier📈@ConnorJRogers pic.twitter.com/kSRWC8Gunh

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 20, 2024

The Tigers’ receiving corps has been led by the dynamic duo of Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, who have combined for 32 receptions, 445 yards, and six touchdowns. Their ability to create separation and make plays after the catch has given Nussmeier reliable targets in the passing game.

On the ground, true freshman back Caden Durham has burst onto the scene, rushing for 107 yards and two scores on just 15 carries. He’s averaging an eye-popping 7.1 yards per carry. Durham’s emergence has added a new dimension to LSU’s offense, providing balance and explosiveness to aid the passing attack.

Defensively, the Tigers have been led by the pass-rushing tandem of Savion Jones and Bradyn Swinson, who have combined for six sacks and four tackles for loss. Their ability to generate pressure on Garbers will be crucial in disrupting UCLA’s offensive rhythm.

UCLA vs LSU Prediction

Despite the line movement, I’m sticking with UCLA +21.5 in my Week 4 college football picks against the spread. I think the poise of Garbers and the emerging talent of receiver Flores Jr. will pose a legitimate challenge for the LSU defense.

There’s no denying LSU is the more talented team, hence this massive spread. But I’m not sold on their defensive ability. The Tigers’ defense has been a significant issue this season, allowing more than 30 points in two games against USC teams from both coasts. They even conceded 21 points to Nicholls State.

The Bruins have enough weapons to do some damage in this spot and give the Tigers a bit of a scare. Look for UCLA to cover the generous 21.5-point spread in a high-scoring affair.

UCLA-LSU Pick:

• Bruins +21.5 (-115)

In a highly anticipated matchup, the UCLA Bruins will face off against the LSU Tigers in Week 4 of college football. Both teams are coming off strong performances in their previous games, making this showdown one to watch.

The odds and spread for this game are currently favoring LSU, with the Tigers being listed as 6-point favorites. This comes as no surprise, as LSU has been a powerhouse in college football for years and is known for its strong defense and explosive offense. However, UCLA has shown great potential this season, with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading the team to an impressive 2-0 start.

When it comes to predictions for this game, it’s expected to be a close and competitive matchup. UCLA will need to rely on their strong passing game and solid defense to keep up with LSU’s high-powered offense. On the other hand, LSU will look to control the game with their dominant running game and aggressive defense.

Ultimately, this game could go either way and will likely come down to which team can execute their game plan more effectively. Fans can expect an exciting and intense battle between these two talented teams.

In conclusion, the UCLA vs LSU matchup in Week 4 of college football is shaping up to be a must-watch game. With both teams hungry for a win, it’s sure to be a thrilling contest that could go down to the wire. Be sure to tune in and see who comes out on top in this exciting showdown.