College Football Playoff Round 1: SMU vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Spread

• The second CFP Round 1 matchup pits 11th-seeded SMU Mustangs against the 6th-seeded Penn State Nittany Lions Saturday at Beaver Stadium at Noon on TNT/MAX.
• The Nittany Lions are an 8.5-point favorite and are poised to advance.
• We have a full preview of SMU vs Penn State, including our prediction, a look at some of the best odds and more.

Cold and breezy weather is likely in Happy Valley for the College Football Playoff matchup between SMU (11-2, 8-5 ATS) and Penn State (11-2, 6-7 ATS). Penn State is 0-3 ATS against ranked teams, while SMU is 2-1.

SMU has gone to two straight bowl games but lost both (once to New Mexico State and once to Boston College). Penn State is 1-2 in their last three bowl contests. They defeated Utah in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago but had losses to Ole Miss and Arkansas.

SMU is in its first year as a member of the ACC. They staged a valiant comeback against Clemson but came up short.

We take some shots downfield err predictions on this first-round clash in our preview, plus a look at the best odds to check out before Saturday’s kickoff.

SMU vs Penn State Odds

Odds as of Dec. 19 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check the top DraftKings Sportsbook promos before making a bet on any college football playoff action. 

This is a reasonable line given the way the schools seem to match up. SMU has one of the best offenses and can give teams fit, while Penn State has superior size and better speed than they showed against Oregon in the Big 10 Championship. That is why Penn State is an 8.5-point favorite entering the game.

Against the spread, SMU is 7-3 in their last ten games, while Penn State is 3-4 at home ATS in 2024.

The total is 54 at DraftKings and 53.5 at FanDuel. BetMGM currently carries this at 54.5, which indicates some possible movement, even right before kickoff on Saturday.

What does that tell you? Las Vegas ponders additional movement, and not just with the game total but perhaps the spread, too.

The other thing every college football fan is looking at are the dreaded injuries and opt-outs. Both teams have their share. RJ Maryland has not played since October, and SMU has been looking for a Tight End ever since. Penn State has no significant losses in this department.

SMU Runs A High-Impact Attack

It is SMU’s first real huge bowl or playoff game. The Mustangs had a four-year run in the early 1980’s where they ran wild in the old SWC led famously by Eric Dickerson running exploits. It has been three decades since a real run of prominence culminating in a playoff spot.

The Rhett Lashlee-led offense ranks sixth in points per game at 38.5. Kevin Jennings took the ball and ran with it, literally combining for 27 touchdowns. Running back Brashard Smith has a nose for the end zone with 14 rushing touchdowns and four receiving. Balance is key in their passing attack, as seven different players have 300+ receiving yards.

“Penn State plays a lot of zone and they’re gonna try and create turnovers on Saturday..

I don’t think you can stop a guy like Kevin Jennings but they’re gonna force him to throw the football in that weather” ~ Coach Saban #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/XT7Dgmj0N2

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) December 19, 2024

Now, the key will be the run-pass option (RPO). Can SMU run this successfully in the cold weather? Temperatures are expected to be in the 20’s for this game, with breezy to windy conditions. Wind chills could be in the teens or single digits. Jennings and Smith must find ways to run for significant yards to set up easier down and distance as the game progresses.

Penn State Keep It Simple

For James Franklin and Drew Allar, this is put up or shut up time. Penn State gets a home game in the college playoff by losing a close game to Oregon, 45-38, in the Big 10 Championship.

Penn State played too passive against Dillon Gabriel and got burned repeatedly. Their zone defense must be more aggressive against Kevin Jennings and the SMU attack. The Nittany Lions will not give up 28 points in the first 20 minutes again.

Offensively, Drew Allar must not make mistakes. It will be cold, and the SMU Front Seven can be relentless. However, the Nittany Lions must win the line-of-scrimmage battle and use the run to set up the pass. Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have the size and speed to find holes in the second level of the Mustangs’ defense.

There is not too much to say with the Nittany Lions here. If the defense can play downhill and the offense gets a lead, they should be able to use the home crowd and aggressiveness to absorb some of the big plays they will give up.

SMU vs Penn State Prediction

• Penn State -8.5 at DraftKings
• Under 52.5 at DraftKings

SMU has been great all season, but that start against Clemson was troubling. By the time they played Mustang football, it was too late.

For Penn State, the Nittany Lions want to beat a Top 10 opponent (SMU is tenth in the CFP Rankings). James Franklin must utilize his team’s strength, and the belief is Penn State should hog the clock. No one would be surprised if Penn State covers late or holds on to cover barely.

The College Football Playoff is in full swing, and one of the most anticipated matchups in the first round is between SMU and Penn State. Both teams have had strong seasons and are looking to make a statement in this game.

SMU comes into this matchup with a record of 10-2, finishing second in the American Athletic Conference. The Mustangs have been led by their high-powered offense, which ranks 9th in the nation in scoring, averaging 38.5 points per game. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai has been a standout player for SMU, throwing for over 3,500 yards and 38 touchdowns on the season.

On the other side, Penn State finished the season with a record of 9-3, placing third in the Big Ten Conference. The Nittany Lions have been strong on both sides of the ball, ranking 12th in scoring defense, allowing just 18.8 points per game. Quarterback Sean Clifford has been a key player for Penn State, throwing for over 2,500 yards and 24 touchdowns.

In terms of odds and spread, Penn State is currently favored to win this matchup by 6.5 points. The over/under for the game is set at 58 points, indicating that oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair.

When it comes to predicting the outcome of this game, it’s likely to be a close contest between two evenly matched teams. SMU’s explosive offense will be a challenge for Penn State’s defense, but the Nittany Lions have shown they can shut down high-powered offenses this season.

Ultimately, I predict that Penn State will come out on top in a close game, with their defense making key stops when it matters most. However, SMU is certainly capable of pulling off the upset if they can get their offense firing on all cylinders.

Overall, this matchup between SMU and Penn State is sure to be an exciting one for college football fans, with both teams looking to advance to the next round of the College Football Playoff.