Chances of Trump Running for a Third Term: Latest Prediction Markets Estimate 11% Probability

• Prediction site Kalshi.com has created a market on whether President Donald Trump will be allowed to run for a third term
• The 22nd Amendment established a two-term limit for all presidents
• See the latest odds that Trump is permitted to run for a third term in office in 2028

Though he’s not listed in the 2028 presidential election odds at this point, President Donald Trump has been the subject of intense search lately with respect to the potential he could run for a third term in office in four years’ time. Why the sudden interest from the general public? Because Trump himself told NBC News “There are methods which you could do [run for a third term]”.

Currently, the 22nd Amendment – enacted in 1951 – prohibits any president from running for a third term, but amendments can be repealed or further amended or reinterpreted (especially by a GOP-friendly Supreme Court). The prediction site Kalshi has posted a market on whether Trump will be permitted to run again in 2028. The “No” side is currently favored but the “Yes” side isn’t seen as an outlandish proposition.

Odds Trump Can Run for a Third Term

The footnotes at Kalshi clarify that, “If the 22nd Amendment is repealed or if the Supreme Court [reinterprets] the 22nd Amendment to permit an individual to be elected President more than twice before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.”

Prices and percentages from Kalshi.com at 9:52 am ET, April 1st. Claim SBD’s Kalshi promo code to get a bonus to use at the site.

This prediction market has gone through some intense fluctuations since it opened in late November 2024. The opening percentages gave it an 11% chance. That dropped to just 5% in the ensuing weeks but then rose as high as 15% in late February.

Can Trump Legally Run for a Third Term?

The short answer is: not right now but laws can and do change. The 22nd Amendment, which currently prohibits presidents from seeking a third term in office, was only implemented in 1951 in response to Franklin D Roosevelt winning four straight terms in the White House.

Previously, no president had ever served more than two terms/eight years and a two-term limit was seen as a “norm” passed down from George Washington himself. But there is a strong argument that a two-term limit wasn’t a foundational principle of the American democracy. The concept was certainly on the radar of the founding fathers who opted not to include it in the Constitution.

Amending the Constitution is a two-step process: (1) proposal and (2) ratification.

According to the Office of the Federal Register, an amendment can be proposed “either by the Congress with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures.” The existing 27 amendments have all been proposed by Congress.

Once an amendment is proposed, it must be ratified by three-fourths of the states, which requires 38 of 50 state legislatures to sign-off. (Alternatively, states themselves can also ratify amendments via convention.)

It’s an arduous process that requires a great deal of national consensus. The 27th and most-recent amendment was 33 years ago (1992) and it prohibited any law that changes the salary for members of Congress from taking effect until after the next election cycle.

Creative thinkers have mused that, maybe, because Trump is serving two non-consecutive terms as president, perhaps the 22nd Amendment doesn’t apply. That argument has been widely rejected by legal scholars, who point to the unambiguous language of the 22nd Amendment itself.

“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.

This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several States within seven years from the date of its submission to the States by the Congress.”

If Trump is actually going to run as a presidential candidate in 2028, it will almost certainly require an amendment to the Constitution.

As the 2020 presidential election draws closer, speculation has been swirling about whether or not President Donald Trump will seek a third term in office. While the idea of a president serving more than two terms goes against the traditional norms established by the 22nd Amendment, some believe that Trump may attempt to defy convention and run for re-election once again.

According to the latest prediction markets, the chances of Trump running for a third term are estimated to be around 11%. This figure is based on a variety of factors, including Trump’s own statements about potentially serving more than two terms, as well as the current political climate and his popularity among his base.

While it is certainly possible for Trump to run for a third term, there are several obstacles that he would have to overcome in order to make it happen. First and foremost, the 22nd Amendment explicitly states that no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, so any attempt by Trump to run for a third term would likely face legal challenges.

Additionally, Trump’s approval ratings have been relatively low throughout his presidency, and he has faced significant backlash from both Democrats and Republicans for his handling of various issues, including the COVID-19 pandemic and racial tensions in the United States. These factors could make it difficult for Trump to win re-election for a third term, even if he were to run.

Ultimately, while the chances of Trump running for a third term may be estimated at 11% according to prediction markets, it is still unclear whether or not he will actually make an attempt to do so. As the 2020 election approaches, all eyes will be on Trump and his decision regarding his political future.