- Miami’s Cam Ward is a -200 favorite to be the first overall pick
- Ward threw for 4,313 yards and 39 TD this past season, with four rushing scores
- Keep reading for the NFL Draft Number 1 pick odds, plus analysis and picks
With the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff in the rearview mirror, it’s time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft. This year’s class isn’t as sexy as years past. Despite no one being too excited about the quarterback prospects, the two most likely names to go first overall both play that position.
NFL Draft Number 1 Pick Odds
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cam Ward (Miami) | -200 |
| Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) | +140 |
| Travis Hunter (Colorado) | +1400 |
| Abdul Carter (Penn State) | +2000 |
| Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) | +4000 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona) | +5000 |
| Will Campbell (LSU) | +5000 |
| Mykel Williams (Georgia) | +5000 |
| Jalen Milroe (Alabama) | +5000 |
| Quinn Ewers (Texas) | +5000 |
| Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas) | +7500 |
| James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee) | +7500 |
| Luther Burden III (Mizzou) | +9000 |
| Will Johnson (Michigan) | +10000 |
| Nic Scourton (Texas A&M) | +10000 |
Miami’s Cam Ward is a -200 favorite to be the first overall selection in the NFL Draft odds. He’s followed by Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, who sports +140 odds. Sanders teammate Travis Hunter is third at +1400, while Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter rounds out the top-four. The Tennessee Titans hold the top selection, followed by the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants.
Odds as of Jan. 20 at DraftKings. Read SBD’s DraftKings review to see the latest promo codes and bonus offerings from DK.
NFL Draft History: QB or Bust
Over the last 10 years, a quarterback has been the number one pick eight times. The lone exceptions were edge rushers Travon Walker in ’22 and Myles Garrett in ’17. You have to go all they way back to tackle Eric Fisher in 2013, to find a year where the number one selection wasn’t a quarterback or pass rusher.
Since 1997, a QB has been the top pick 20 times. The only other positions to earn that honor are offensive tackles and edge rushers, while no skill position player has been the first overall pick since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.
Ward Is No Sure Bet
That should help us narrow down our best bets to be selected number one. We can forget about Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan, and focus on Ward, Sanders and Carter from the top-four.
Tennessee is desperate to move on from Will Levis and find their franchise quarterback. That takes Carter out of the equation, leaving only Ward and Sanders. Six weeks ago, Ward was +775 to go first, while Sanders was -117.
Just spent 1.5 hours analyzing Cam Ward — here are my takeaways:
-ALWAYS looking for home run ball
-Mahomes like pocket mobility and awareness
-Often won’t take what defenses are giving in hopes of hitting home run ball
-Footwork is poor at times
-Produces excellent ball… pic.twitter.com/0iehatnsvL— Alex Wilson (@AlexWilsonESM) January 17, 2025
Ward has the potential to be a franchise guy, and is fresh off an impressive season. He threw for 4,313 yards and 39 TD at Miami, rushing for another four scores. Ward’s Hurricanes led the FBS in scoring and total offense, and he completed 29 passes of 20-plus air yards which ranked seventh nationally.
Rumour is the Titans are split on Ward and Sanders, and there’s one glaring reason why they should pass on the former.
Ward’s closest NFL comps are Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Sam Howell. Nix looks like a hit after a fine rookie season, but those other names have to give teams pause.
The worry is Ward’s bad tendencies will be amplified in the pros, just like Wilson’s. He relies too heavily on his arm talent, regularly throwing off his back foot. Ball security is a concern after fumbling eight times in 2024, as is pocket awareness.
Finally, his coverage reading skills leave a lot to be desired. He struggles against disguised looks, which is what NFL defenses thrive on.
Sanders Should Be Favored
Which brings us to Sanders. He’s earned an endorsement from Draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. as the top QB in the Draft, and will bring a whole different level of excitement than Ward.
Tennessee is a small market team that is desperate to be relevant. Sanders will put them in the A block of every talking heads sports show, and will make the Titans must see TV.
On the field, he’s actually a safer prospect with similar upside. His footwork and accuracy are more polished than Ward’s, and he’s a better thrower on the move.
An elevator pitch for Shedeur Sanders and why the Titans should take him with the 1st overall pick.
Did @Sam_Phalen cook?! pic.twitter.com/sskeSIfuw4
— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) January 16, 2025
He’s also tough as nails. Sanders absorbed 99 sacks over the past two seasons, but that didn’t stop him from hanging in the pocket to make tough throws. He completed 74% of his passes this season, for 4,134 yards and 37 TD.
Sanders is not a huge rushing threat, but he’s not afraid to take off either. He scored four times on the ground, and possess enough juice to extend plays.
What separates him the most form Ward is his processing ability. He’s excellent at diagnosing coverages and making pre-snap adjustments.
Both he and Ward will likely be Day 1 starters next season, but if we’re looking for a best bet to go first overall, give me Sanders. He’s got more favorable odds, and his accuracy and processing ability make him a more attractive option.
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The NFL Draft is fast approaching and all eyes are on the top prospects expected to go early in the first round. One player who has been generating a lot of buzz is Cam Ward, a highly touted quarterback out of Alabama.
Ward has been impressing scouts and analysts with his impressive skill set and leadership qualities. Standing at 6’4″ and weighing in at 225 pounds, Ward has the ideal size and athleticism to succeed at the next level. He has a strong arm, quick release, and excellent decision-making abilities, making him a top prospect in this year’s draft class.
With the draft just around the corner, oddsmakers have pegged Ward as the favorite to be selected as the number one overall pick. Currently, Ward has -200 odds to be the top pick, meaning that he is the clear frontrunner in the eyes of many experts.
Many teams in need of a franchise quarterback are likely eyeing Ward as their top choice. His ability to make all the throws, read defenses, and lead his team to victory make him an attractive option for any team looking to improve their offense.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL Draft, and surprises can always happen. But as of now, it looks like Cam Ward is the player to beat for the number one overall pick. Keep an eye on him as the draft approaches to see if he can live up to the hype and become the newest face of an NFL franchise.