Betting Guide for Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Matchup on January 18th

• The Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans for the second time this season in the Divisional Round (Jan 18)
• Kansas City opened as a big favorite, and the Texans vs Chiefs spread has only grown since then
• Below, see the Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs odds, predictions, and picks

The Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 8-0 home, 8-9 ATS) put their perfect home record on the line, along with a seven game postseason win streak that dates back to January 2022, when they host the Houston Texans (11-7, 5-4 away, 8-8-2 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, January 18, at 4:30 pm ET.

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Kansas City opened as a 7.5-point home favorite in the Divisional Round NFL odds and the line has been bet up to 8.5 as of Friday afternoon. On the moneyline, Kansas City has shortened all the way from -345 to -550. At the same time, the Texans moved from +275 underdogs to massive +400 longshots to reach their first-ever AFC Championship Game. Houston is 0-5 all-time in the Divisional Playoffs in the 21-year history of the team.

Odds as of Jan. 17 at Caesars. Claim the top Super Bowl betting promos for the 2025 NFL playoffs. 

The game total, on the other hand, has been on the way down. After opening at 43.5, the over/under is currently sitting at just 41.5.

HOU vs KC Betting Trends

Despite tying the Lions for the best record in the NFL during the regular season, the Chiefs were actually a game under .500 against the spread. Their point differential of +59 wasn’t even in the top ten of the NFL.

That said, the Chiefs did cover the spread in their last three games of the season, excluding Week 18 when they rested almost every starter during a 38-0 loss to Denver. From Week 15 to 17, KC took care of Cleveland (21-7 as 3.5-point road favorites), Houston (27-19 as three-point home favorites), and Pittsburgh (29-10 as 1.5-point road favorites).

After taking down the Chargers in the Wild Card (32-12 as 2.5-point home underdogs), the Texans have now covered two in a row and are 8-5-1 ATS since starting the season 0-3-1.

Houston’s 27-19 setback to the Chiefs in Week 16 was a fairly tight game. The Chiefs had a slight edge in yards (375-311) and time of possession (33:52 to 26:08) but it was Houston mistakes that really handed KC the victory. The Texans committed the only two turnovers of the game and took six penalties to the Chiefs’ two.

Jaden Hicks’ interception of C.J. Stroud as seen on @peacock‘s Madden Cast! @EAMaddenNFL pic.twitter.com/rAhVPXekxV

— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) December 21, 2024

Their execution wasn’t much cleaner against the Chargers last week, though. CJ Stroud threw two picks and Houston committed three total turnovers, along with taking eight penalties. The defense, however, came up huge, generating four takeaways and four sacks, while limiting LAC to just 261 total yards of offense.

Kansas City enters the Divisional Round as the +350 second-favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds, just behind Detroit (+260). The Texans are +5000 longshots, the worst odds of the eight remaining teams.

Texans vs Chiefs Predictions

I was extremely encouraged by what I saw from Houston’s defense in the Wild Card Round. This unit has the personnel to dominate, especially in the pass rush with Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr (11 sacks).

The Chiefs finished the season ranked a mediocre 13th by PFF in pass blocking. Patrick Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times, eight more than in any other season during his seven-year career. Increased pressure is a big part of the reason why Mahomes has posted passer ratings of 92.6 and 93.5 in the last two seasons, while having a 98.5 or better number in his first five (and at least 105.3 in four of those).

I am not going to bet on Mahomes and the Chiefs to lose at home in the postseason. That hasn’t happened since they lost to the Bengals in January 2022. But I do firmly expect this to be a close game throughout. The Houston defense is too talented to let a declining Kansas City attack boat race them.

The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs are set to face off in a highly anticipated playoff matchup on January 18th. As both teams have had successful seasons, this game is sure to be a thrilling showdown for football fans everywhere. If you’re looking to place a bet on this game, here is a comprehensive betting guide to help you make an informed decision.

First and foremost, it’s important to consider the strengths and weaknesses of each team. The Texans have a strong offense led by quarterback Deshaun Watson and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. They also have a solid defense that has shown improvement throughout the season. On the other hand, the Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce. Their defense has also been solid, especially in recent games.

When it comes to betting on this matchup, there are several factors to consider. One key factor is the point spread, which is currently set at -9.5 in favor of the Chiefs. This means that the Chiefs are favored to win by at least 10 points. If you believe that the Chiefs will win by more than 10 points, then betting on them to cover the spread may be a good option.

Another popular betting option is the over/under, which is currently set at 51.5 points. This means that the total combined score of both teams is expected to be 51.5 points. If you believe that the game will be a high-scoring affair, then betting on the over may be a good choice. Conversely, if you think that the game will be low-scoring, then betting on the under may be a better option.

In addition to these traditional betting options, there are also prop bets available for this game. Prop bets allow you to wager on specific outcomes within the game, such as which team will score first or how many touchdowns a certain player will score. These bets can add an extra level of excitement to the game and provide more opportunities to win.

Overall, the Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs playoff matchup is sure to be an exciting game for football fans and bettors alike. By considering the strengths and weaknesses of each team, as well as the various betting options available, you can make an informed decision on where to place your bet. Good luck and enjoy the game!