- Week 10 is over except for the matter of the Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football
- Like any responsible gambler, we need to make sure we have plenty of action on this thing
- Find two of my favorite Dolphins vs Rams player props to bet for this MNF matchup
I’m going to be honest with you all, we need to fire off some bets in this game tonight. Not only is it a Monday Night Football game, but it’s also a pretty good one. We’re talking about the Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams here people. These aren’t two bulls**t teams. Both have the firepower to make any game interesting. On top of that, both teams seem to be coming back to health after missing key guys. Luckily, I saw this as a great game to bet earlier in the week. I went through every possible line and considered every possible thing that could happen. We’re talking thousands of mental simulations here. What I found was shocking. Keep reading.
Dolphins vs Rams Player Prop Picks
Player | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Pick |
---|---|---|---|
Jonnu Smith (Dolphins) | 3.5 (Ov +102 / Un -110) | 34.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110) | Over 3.5 Receptions (+102) |
Player | Completions | Passing Yards | Pick |
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) | 21.5 (Ov -120 / Un -108) | 244.5 (Ov -110 / Un -110) | Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-105) |
Odds as of November 11 at FanDuel, BetMGM, and Bally Bet. Claim the FanDuel promo code to bet on Monday Night Football in Week 10.
Jonnu Smith Is Old Reliable
The Miami Dolphins’ pass game is nice but a little too flashy for my taste. I’m a receptions guy and when you look through the Miami Dolphins’ receiving options, all we see are a bunch of burners. None of these guys could ever pass as the “possession” type.
Lucky for us, Jonnu Smith has stepped into this role for Miami and it makes sense since he’s been doing it for years.
The Patriots paid Jonnu Smith for exactly this reasonpic.twitter.com/lflhzSq1XL
— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) September 7, 2021
In a game like tonight’s, I need receptions on the Dolphins’ side and I think our receptions guy is Jonnu Smith. It just is. For starters, the Dolphins seem to be trying to get the ball out of Tua’s hands as soon as possible these days. The guy’s ADOT is less than six yards. That’s crazy short.
Since that’s the case, tight ends and running backs in the receiving game are in play. Since we don’t want to play De’Von Achane at 5.5 for -130, we have to look to the tight ends. Jonnu is our guy in that room.
Over the last four games, Jonnu Smith has been targeted at least six ties in every game. That’s a lot. On top of that, these passes are all underneath stuff that has a high catch percentage. We can’t be wasting any targets here people and with Jonnu, we’re not.
I’m thinking he gets this by halftime. Maybe sooner. Feels easy.
- The Pick: Jonnu Smith 4+ Receptions (+102) at Bally Bet
Tua Will Drop Bombs Tonight
It’s been tough for Tua Tagovailoa. He came into the league touted as the man who will save the Miami Dolphins franchise only to keep suffering concussion after concussion. It’s sad really because the guy can play.
The league is actually a better place with him playing.
Entering Week 10, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa graded out as the third best QB in our QB+ Rankings.
Tua ranks in the top five in clutch-situation performance so far this season, and his 55.6% third-down conversion rate leads the league among qualified QBs. pic.twitter.com/ntz3a5WS4l
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 11, 2024
After watching Tua over the last two weeks, I’m ready to say he’s back. The Dolphins have him playing the type of game that should keep him healthy. He’s getting the ball out quick which is evidenced by his crazy low ADOT. That is a good thing.
Tonight, Tua will see the Los Angeles Rams who are ripe for passing touchdowns. For starters, they’re 4th best in the NFL at home in the opponent rushing yards per attempt metric. That means balls need to fly which is good for us because the Rams have allowed 15 passing touchdowns this season. They’ve only played eight games so 15 is a big number.
These Rams give up the big play which is what we’re looking for tonight. A little Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill screen that goes for 80+ would be perfect. Still, even if we don’t get one of those, we are still in play for red zone TD passes. We only need two people. Tua just did that last week. Feels easy.
- The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-105) at BetMGM
- 2024 SBD MNF Results – 9-8 (+3.49 Units)
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As Monday Night Football approaches in Week 10, the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams is sure to be an exciting one. While betting on the outcome of the game is always an option, player prop bets can add an extra layer of excitement to the experience. Here are some of the best player prop bets to consider for this Monday night showdown.
1. Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under Passing Yards: The Dolphins’ young quarterback has shown flashes of brilliance in his limited playing time this season. With a matchup against a tough Rams defense, the over/under for Tagovailoa’s passing yards could be a tricky one to predict. Look for him to rely on quick passes and screens to playmakers like DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki.
2. Jared Goff Over/Under Touchdown Passes: Goff has been inconsistent this season, but he has the talent to put up big numbers against a Dolphins defense that has struggled at times. The over/under for Goff’s touchdown passes could be a good bet, especially if the Rams are able to establish the run game early and set up play-action opportunities.
3. Cam Akers Total Rushing Yards: The rookie running back has shown flashes of potential in recent weeks, and he could be in line for a bigger workload against the Dolphins. Look for Akers to get plenty of carries and have a chance to break off some big runs against a Miami defense that has been vulnerable against the run.
4. DeVante Parker Total Receiving Yards: Parker has been Tagovailoa’s favorite target since taking over as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback. Look for him to get plenty of targets against a Rams secondary that has been solid but can be susceptible to big plays. The over/under for Parker’s receiving yards could be a good bet, especially if the Dolphins are playing from behind and need to throw the ball often.
5. Aaron Donald Total Sacks: The Rams’ star defensive lineman is always a threat to get to the quarterback, and he could have a big game against a Dolphins offensive line that has struggled at times this season. Look for Donald to be disruptive in the backfield and have a chance to rack up multiple sacks in this Monday night matchup.
Overall, player prop bets can add an extra level of excitement to Monday Night Football. Whether you’re betting on passing yards, touchdown passes, rushing yards, receiving yards, or sacks, there are plenty of opportunities to make some money while watching the game. Just remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the action on the field.