Geoffrey Esper scarfs down one of 31.5 sloppers during the 2023 World Slopper Eating Championship at the Colorado State Fair in Pueblo on Saturday, September 1, 2023.
- The 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is set for July 4
- Joey Chestnut, who has won each of the last eight contests and 16 of the last 17, will not be competing this year
- With a much more open field on the men’s side, who is the best bet to take this year’s hot dog eating contest?
The 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is going to look much different than it has for the past two-plus decades, when the contest had been dominated by Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi – plus one upset courtesy of Matt Stonie in 2015. Joey Chestnut, who has won the previous eight contests and 16 of the last 17 events, was banned from competing this year by Major League Eating, thanks to his affiliating with plant-based hot dog brand Impossible Foods. The result is a 2024 field with no -3000 favorite on the men’s side and a bunch of names most are not familiar with.
The lack of a heavy favorite opens up more betting opportunities on the event, though! For the past decade, the only way to bet the contest was to either throw your money away at someone who was going to lose to Chestnut, or try to bet the over/under on number of hot dogs and buns eaten. I’ve gone deep into these competitors and have a bet locked in that I feel good about!
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest gets underway on July 4 with the women’s side starting at 10:45am ET and the men coming on at 12pm ET. Be sure to lock your bets ahead of time!
2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
| Competitor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Geoffrey Esper | -105 |
| James Webb | +155 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +850 |
| Nick Wehry | +1200 |
| King Yamamoto | +3100 |
| Gideon Oji | +6000 |
| Radim Dvoracek | +8000 |
| Darrien Thomas | +10000 |
| Max Stanford | +10000 |
| George Chiger | +10000 |
| Derek Hendrickson | +10000 |
| Ricardo Corbucci | +10000 |
| William Claude Lyon IV | +10000 |
| Sean Yeager | +10000 |
All major online sports betting apps have Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds available for today. Without Chestnut in the field, Geoffrey Esper is the favorite to win the 2024 contest with -105 odds at FanDuel. Some sportsbooks have him as short as -115. If you bet $20 on Esper to win at -105 odds, you would stand to win $19.05 and return $39.05. Based off those odds, Esper is given a 51.2% chance to win this year’s contest.
James Webb has the second-best odds at +155. If you bet $20 on Webb, you would potentially win $31 and return $51. Webb’s implied probability to win the contest is 39.2%.
The 2024 hot dog eating contest is seen as a two-horse race between Esper and Webb. Patrick Bertoletti, who is given the third-best odds, is a distant +850 and the odds continue to get significantly longer as you scroll down the board.
Geoffrey Esper Eating Stats & Records
Most of the country is asking the same question today: who is Geoffrey Esper and should I bet him to win the hot dog eating contest? I’ll answer the first part in this section and then the second later on in the article.
Esper was the runner-up in the 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, scarfing down 49 hot dog and buns versus Chestnut’s 62. Esper was also the runner-up in the 2022 and 2021 events as well. His best performance came in 2021 when he ate 50 HDBs. This is a man who has spent the last three years crushing hot dogs but living in Chestnut’s shadow.
He is 49 years old and listed at 195 lbs out of Oxford, Massachusetts. Here are a handful of the eating records he holds:
- 11 5.6oz Corn Dogs in 3 mins (2022)
- 36 4.5oz Brats in 10 mins (2019)
- 83 slices of 10″ Pizza in 10 mins (2018)
- 19.25 9″ Personal Pizza Pies in 10 mins (2018)
- 23.75 lbs of Strawberry Shortcake in 8 mins (2024)
- 281 Hooters Wings in 10 mins (2019)
- 37.5 9oz Sloppers in 8 mins (2020)
- 76 3.2oz Glier’s Brats in 10 mins (2022)
This man is a polished eating-contest legend.
James Webb Eating Stats & Records
James Webb made waves as the first Australian to eat competitively at Coney Island in 2022 and will be competing in his third straight contest this year. Webb finished third in each of the last two events, consuming 41 HDBs in 2022 and 47 in 2023. That put him six and two HDBs back of Esper in those respective years.
Webb is much younger than Esper at only 35 years old, but his MLE profile lacks a listed weight. While he doesn’t hold nearly as many eating records as Esper, he does hold these six:
- 70 Glazed Donuts in 8 mins (2024)
- 51 2.5oz Southside Market & Barbecue Texas Sausages in 10 mins (2024)
- 350 Jack’s Donut Holes in 8 mins (2024)
- 338 Pistachios in 8 mins (2024)
- 224 Chicken Wings in 10 mins (2024)
- 13.5 lbs of Chocolate Fudge in 8 mins (2024)
The kicker with Webb is that it seems he is just beginning to enter his competitive eating prime, evident by all of his records being from this year.
Picks & Predictions for 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
- Geoffrey Esper to Win (-105 at FanDuel)
We have known for about a month now that Joey Chestnut would not be competing in the 2024 event, giving each of this year’s competitors some time to ramp up training. The man who I believe got the biggest boost from the news is Geoffrey Esper, who has a chance to etch his name among the eating contest greats after years of being overlooked.
He has proven to be better than Webb, Wehry, and many others in the field year after year. When it comes to crushing HDBs, there’s Joey Chestnut, Kobayashi, and then Esper. I like Esper to seize the opportunity in front of him and win this year’s contest with around 50 HDBs consumed.
The best place to make this bet is FanDuel, where you can find Esper at -105 odds. Don’t wait too long to lock this one in, though. The odds have been shortening all morning.
If you’re looking to take a bigger swing, I couldn’t resist Nick Wehry, who is married to Miki Sudo (the heavy favorite on the women’s side), at +1400 odds at FanDuel. He’s as short as +550 at some sportsbooks and was only four HDBs back of Esper in last year’s contest.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD’s Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD’s score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
The annual Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest is a highly anticipated event in the competitive eating world, drawing in thousands of spectators and fans each year. With reigning champion Joey Chestnut absent from the 2024 competition, the field is wide open for a new champion to emerge. Here are some of the best bets and predictions for the upcoming contest:
1. Matt Stonie: As a former champion and fierce competitor, Matt Stonie is definitely a top contender to watch in Chestnut’s absence. Known for his speed and precision in eating contests, Stonie could easily take the title this year.
2. Geoffrey Esper: Another strong contender in the hot dog eating world, Geoffrey Esper has consistently placed near the top in previous competitions. With Chestnut out of the picture, Esper has a good chance of claiming victory in 2024.
3. Darron Breeden: A rising star in the competitive eating scene, Darron Breeden has been making a name for himself with impressive performances in recent contests. With his determination and skill, Breeden could surprise everyone and come out on top at this year’s event.
4. Michelle Lesco: In the women’s division, Michelle Lesco is a force to be reckoned with. With Chestnut absent, Lesco has a great opportunity to showcase her talent and potentially take home the title in 2024.
5. Dark Horse Pick: While these competitors are among the favorites to win, there’s always room for a dark horse to come out of nowhere and steal the show. Keep an eye out for underdogs like Gideon Oji or Miki Sudo to potentially make a splash in this year’s contest.
Overall, the 2024 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest is shaping up to be an exciting and unpredictable event. With Joey Chestnut out of the competition, fans can expect to see some new faces vying for the title and pushing themselves to their limits in pursuit of victory. Stay tuned for what promises to be a thrilling and unforgettable contest!
