Aug. 29 North Carolina vs Minnesota: Prediction, Odds, and Public Betting Trends

Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton (28) with wide receiver Devontez Walker (9) after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

• We’ve made our North Carolina vs Minnesota prediction for Thursday night Week 1 college football
• The Tar Heels are favored in the UNC vs Minnesota odds as they transition to a new QB post-Drake Maye
• Read on for North Carolina vs Minnesota prediction, odds, and betting trends for this Week 1 showdown

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College football is officially back, baby. And we’ve got a juicy Week 1 matchup to sink our teeth into, with the North Carolina Tar Heels traveling to TCF Bank Stadium to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

This Thursday night tilt on August 29, 2024 features an ACC-Big Ten clash that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons. The oddsmakers have pegged the Tar Heels as slight 2-point road favorites with a total of 49.5.

Here’s our UNC vs Minnesota prediction for Week 1 as the CFB season kicks into full gear.

UNC vs Minnesota Prediction

Last year, these two teams met in Chapel Hill with the Tar Heels laying a beatdown on the Gophers, 31-13. But this is a new season with fresh faces on both sidelines. UNC lost superstar QB Drake Maye to the NFL, so either Max Johnson (a Texas A&M transfer) or Conner Harrell will lead the offense.

Whoever wins the gig will have the pleasure of handing off to Omarion Hampton, a dynamic RB who totaled over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs last year. Hampton should find plenty of running room against a Minnesota defense that allowed nearly 150 rushing yards per game in 2023.

Omarion Hampton: Dark-horse Heisman candidate👀@UNCFootball pic.twitter.com/J2V5Kjyj4C

— PFF College (@PFF_College) August 15, 2024

Meanwhile, the Gophers are hoping New Hampshire graduate transfer QB Max Brosmer can resurrect an offense that sputtered in the Big Ten basement last season. Sophomore RB Darius Taylor, who impressed with 5.8 yards per carry as a freshman, figures to carry a heavy load.

Taylor racked up 138 yards against UNC last year and could be in for another big game if the Tar Heels’ defense hasn’t improved. Don’t be shocked if Taylor has a few highlight-reel runs against a UNC run defense that gave up 163 yards per game last season.

I’m giving a slight edge to North Carolina based on their offensive firepower and Minnesota’s recent struggles at home (2-6 ATS in their last 8). The Ta Heels’ rushing attack should control the tempo. I’m also playing the “under” considering UNC’s defensive improvement and Minnesota’s methodical offensive style under PJ Fleck.

UNC vs Minnesota Picks:

• North Carolina -2 (-110)
• Under 49.5 (-110)

North Carolina vs Minnesota Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
North Carolina	-2 (-110)	-130	Over 49.5 (-110)
Minnesota	+2 (-110)	+105	Under 49.5 (-110)

The oddsmakers have installed North Carolina as 2-point road favorites with a total of 49.5. The Tar Heels have implied odds of 52.4% to win outright, with moneyline odds of -130 (bet $130 to win $100). Minnesota checks in as a +105 home underdog.

We’ve seen some minor line movement, with the spread dipping from UNC -2.5 to -2 and the total dropping a point from 50.5 to 49.5. This suggests the sharp bettors aren’t fully sold on either side and are leaning towards a lower-scoring contest.

Odds as of Aug. 27 at ESPN Sportsbook.

North Carolina has struggled to cover the spread consistently, going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. However, they’ve started seasons strong, posting a 4-1 straight-up record in their last five openers. Minnesota hasn’t fared much better, failing to cover in four straight games and six of their last eight at home.

The under has hit in six of the last nine meetings between Big Ten and ACC opponents. While the “over” is always tempting in the college football odds, this game has low-scoring written all over it.

UNC vs Minnesota Public Betting

Per our CFB public betting splits, 64% of spread bets and 72% of the money wagered are backing the visiting Tar Heels as short road favorites. However, the line moving from UNC -2.5 to -2 indicates some respected money on the Gophers, creating a bit of a split between public and sharp bettors.

On the total, a whopping 81% of bets and 76% of dollars are on the over 49.5. Despite this, the total has actually fallen a full point from the opener of 50.5, signaling that big, respected wagers are forecasting a lower-scoring, run-heavy game.

In essence, the betting market is somewhat divided on the spread, with public bettors favoring UNC and sharps leaning Minnesota. On the flip side, the public is pounding the over while smart money expects the under to hit.

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