- The 2025 Oscars will air live on Sunday, March 2nd on ABC and Hulu
- Anora is a heavy favorite to win Best Picture
- Will Demi Moore get the Oscar for best actress? See the odds and our picks for the top categories
Movie’s biggest night featuring excellence in the film industry, takes place at the 97th Oscars. It’ll kick off on Sunday, March 2, 2025 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles. The event, hosted by comedian Conan O’Brien, will be broadcast live on ABC and Hulu.
Anora is the movie that is creating the most buzz to win best picture, with Demi Moore in the flick “The Substance” the favorite to win best actress, and Adrien Brody currently top billing for best actor in “The Brutalist”.
Let’s dive into the current Kalshi market odds for the top categories at the 2025 Academy Awards. Sign up now with promo code “DIME” to get a $10 bonus!
Best Picture Odds & Prediction
| Best Picture | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anora | 62¢ | 39¢ | 62% | -13 (decreasing significantly) |
| Conclave | 24¢ | 77¢ | 24% | +17 (strong upward momentum) |
| The Brutalist | 15¢ | 88¢ | 15% | -3 (slight decrease) |
| A Complete Unknown | 2¢ | 99¢ | 2% | – |
Anora Poised To Hold Off Conclave For Best Picture
Despite Anora’s chances dropping 13%, and Conclave’s showing solid momentum with a 17% increase, the gulf between the two films appears to be far too wide to close the gap. Ben Zauzmer, who has developed a probabilistic Oscars model for The Hollywood Reporter, is giving “Anora” a 52-in-100 chance of winning Best Picture, while Conclave has only a 15-in-100 chance.
Best Actress Odds & Prediction
| Actress | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore “The Substance” | 58¢ | 43¢ | 58% | +8 (strong increase, but lower than before) |
| Mikey Madison “Anora” | 35¢ | 67¢ | 35% | -9 (decreasing significantly) |
| Fernanda Torres – “I’m Still Here” | 10¢ | 91¢ | 9% | +2 (increasing) |
Demi Moore Pulling Away With Award
As much as I’d love for Fernanda Torres’ brilliant performance in “I’m Still Here” to be rewarded with a victory, I can’t in good conscience allow my bias to cloud my judgment in this case. Demi Moore was tremendous in the twisted flick “The Substance” and she’s jumped well ahead of Mikey Maddison when it was previously 49% to 44%. Earlier Friday, however, Moore was at 63%, and Madison 32%. Moore is now down to 58% with Madison rising. This one is close enough that I’m prepared to jump on the underdog in this instance, Mikey Moore.
Best Actor Odds & Prediction
| Actor | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody “The Brutalist” | 68¢ | 33¢ | 68% | -4 (decreasing) |
| Timothee Chalamet | 31¢ | 71¢ | 31% | +6 (increasing) |
| Ralph Fiennes “Conclave” | 3¢ | 98¢ | 4% | +1 (slight increase) |
Adrien Brody With Healthy Odds To Win Best Actor
Adrien Brody won his first Academy Award for Best Actor way back in 2003 for his role in Roman Polanski’s ‘The Pianist’. Should he capture his second award, he could break a 65-year old record set by Charlton Heston. That would be the longest screen time by a best actor award winner, which was two hours, one minute and 23 seconds. Brody was on for 2:08:30. As much as I’d love to stick my neck out with Timothee Chalamet to spice things up, I’m going with the chalky pick.
Best Director Odds
| Director | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker “Anora” | 70¢ | 33¢ | 71% | +14 (significant increase) |
| Brady Corbet “The Brutalist” | 33¢ | 69¢ | 33% | -3 (slight decrease) |
| Coralie Fargeat “The Substance” | 2¢ | 99¢ | 4% | +2 (slight increase) |
Sean Baker And Brady Corbet In Two Horse Race
Sean Baker has a 71% implied probability of winning compared to his counterpart Brady Corbet at 33%. Initially I had considered taking a flyer on the underdog for this one, but Baker went up from 68% earlier Friday to 71%. It’s likely they’re pair the best picture up with the best director of Anora in Sean Baker.
Odds via Kalshi as of March 1st, 2025. Sign up now with promo code “DIME” for a $10 bonus!
The 2025 Oscars are just around the corner, and the buzz surrounding the potential winners is reaching a fever pitch. One name that has emerged as a heavy betting favorite in the predictions and odds is Anora, a breakout star in the film industry.
Anora has been making waves in Hollywood with her stunning performances in recent years, earning critical acclaim and capturing the hearts of audiences worldwide. Her talent and versatility have solidified her as a force to be reckoned with in the industry, and many believe that she is poised to take home multiple awards at this year’s Oscars.
In the Best Actress category, Anora is favored to win for her captivating portrayal of a troubled artist in the film “Fragments of Reality.” Her raw emotion and depth of character have resonated with critics and viewers alike, making her a standout contender for the coveted award.
Additionally, Anora is also a frontrunner in the Best Picture category for her role as a producer on the film “Echoes of Eternity.” The film has garnered widespread praise for its powerful storytelling and visual artistry, further solidifying Anora’s status as a rising star in the industry.
With such strong performances under her belt, it’s no wonder that Anora has become the top choice among bettors and industry insiders for this year’s Oscars. Her talent, dedication, and undeniable star power have set her apart from the competition, making her a favorite to sweep the awards ceremony.
As the countdown to the 2025 Oscars continues, all eyes will be on Anora as she vies for top honors in multiple categories. Whether she takes home one award or several, there’s no denying that Anora’s star is on the rise, and her future in Hollywood looks brighter than ever.
