Analyzing the Odds, Spread, and Picks for the SMU vs Nevada Game on August 24th

Sep 9, 2023; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone (2) throws during the first quarter against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

• SMU vs Nevada kicks off Week 0 of the 2024 college football season
• The Mustangs are massive 24.5-point favorites in their ACC debut
• Read below for SMU vs Nevada odds, picks and best bets for Saturday

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The 2024 college football season kicks into gear with an intriguing Week 0 matchup. The SMU Mustangs travel to Reno to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack on Saturday, August 24th. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EDT at Mackay Stadium, and the game will be televised on CBSSN.

SMU enters their inaugural ACC season as massive 27.5-point road favorites, with the total set at 56.5 points. The moneyline has SMU as massive -3000 favorites, while Nevada is set as +1400 home underdogs.

Let’s dive into the SMU vs Nevada odds as we provide our Week 0 college football prediction.

SMU vs Nevada Odds

The Mustangs opened as 22.5-point favorites back in early August, but steady steam has pushed that number all the way up to SMU -27.5. It’s now settled in at the current -24.5 price.

With the total holding steady at 56.5, the oddsmakers are banking on Rhett Lashlee’s offensive juggernaut to do the heavy lifting.

Odds as of August 20th, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM promo code to wager on Saturday’s SMU vs Nevada game.

SMU’s -3000 moneyline price equates to an implied win probability of 96.8%, making them a near-certainty to start their ACC journey on a winning note. Conversely, Nevada checks in at +1300 (7.1% implied probability) to score the mammoth upset.

Based on the spread and total, the predicted final score lands in the ballpark of SMU 41, Nevada 16.5. This is a reflection of the massive gap in talent between these programs.

Mustangs Betting Analysis

SMU marches into 2024 college football with ACC title aspirations and a roster loaded with returning talent. It all starts with star QB Preston Stone, the Tyler, TX native who dazzled last season with 3,197 yards, 28 TDs and just 6 INTs.

Stone will have his full complement of weapons back, including diminutive but dynamic WR Jake Bailey and sure-handed TE RJ Maryland (7 TDs).

SMU QB Preston Stone is one of the most underrated players in CFB.

🔴 28 TD | 6 INT
🔵 161.3 efficiency rating (13th in FBS)
🔴 91.0 @PFF passing grade (3rd in FBS)
🔵 Sneaky Heisman candidate

If @SMUFB makes some noise in the ACC this season, #2 will be a big reason why✊ pic.twitter.com/WiVSQBtrCE

— Gameday Journal (@GameJSports) June 1, 2024

The Mustangs also boast a three-headed monster at RB in LJ Johnson, Jaylan “Flash” Knighton and Camar Wheaton. They will look to exploit a Nevada D that surrendered 33.5 points per game in 2023.

When SMU drops back to pass, Stone will enjoy clean pockets behind an O-line that allowed the 5th-fewest sacks in the nation.

Defensively, SMU returns 10 of their top 11 tacklers from a unit that ranked Top 10 in success rate, YPP allowed and sack rate. The “Legion of Pony” secondary, led by ballhawks Isaiah Nwokobia and Jonathan McGill, will make life difficult for the Nevada QBs.

Wolfpack Betting Analysis

To say the 2023 campaign was a disappointment for Nevada would be a massive understatement. The Wolf Pack limped to a 2-10 record, lowlighted by an embarrassing 33-6 home loss to FCS bottom-feeder Idaho.

New head man Jeff Choate, late of Montana State, faces a daunting rebuilding project in his first year at the helm. His first order of business is identifying his starting quarterback.

Incumbent Brendon Lewis is locked in a battle with Florida State transfer Chubba Purdy, but neither has seized the reins. Whoever wins the job will be throwing to a brand new WR corps after the Pack lost all their main targets.

The ground game appears to be Nevada’s best hope of moving the chains and shortening the game. The one-two punch of Pat Garwo (1,000-yard rusher at BC in 2021) and Sean Dollars will be counted on to carry the load behind a suspect O-line.

Defensively, the Pack need a quantum leap after surrendering north of 33 points per game last season. Texas transfer Kaden Johnson is being asked to anchor the D-line, while rangy corner Michael Coats Jr. leads an unproven secondary.

SMU vs Nevada Prediction

While the spread and total are in play, my favorite bet on the board is Nevada Team Total Under 16.5. The Wolf Pack attack managed an ugly 17.3 PPG against Mountain West competition last season and are now staring down an elite SMU defense.

Barring garbage time gifts, I can’t envision a realistic path for Nevada to surpass 17 points. SMU’s stop unit is an undervalued commodity, and they should be able to stifle a Nevada offense that’s still very much a work in progress.

Even if SMU’s high-octane offense builds an early lead and takes its foot off the gas, I don’t believe that Nevada can manufacture enough offense to threaten the Over. The Under 16.5 is my most confident play in a game that has all the makings of a one-sided affair.

SMU vs Nevada Pick:

• Wolfpack Team Total Under 16.5 (-110)

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