Analyzing the Odds, Predictions, and Probable Pitchers for the Yankees vs Mets Game on Wednesday, June 26

Jun 14, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Gil (81) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

• We’ve made our Yankees vs Mets prediction for Wednesday’s Subway Series finale
• The MLB odds favor the Yankees at -130, but the Mets are hot on their heels at +110
• See below for our Yankees vs Mets prediction, MLB odds, and starting pitchers for June 26th

The New York Yankees and New York Mets are set to conclude their two-game Subway Series on Wednesday, June 26, 2024, at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM EDT, with the game broadcast on SNY, AMZP, and MLBN.

The Yankees enter as -130 favorites, while the Mets are +110 underdogs. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a potential high-scoring affair in the Big Apple.

Here is our Yankees vs Mets prediction for Wednesday, along with MLB betting odds and probable pitchers analysis.

Yankees vs Mets Prediction

Tuesday night’s series opener had it all – a grand slam from Aaron Judge, a late Yankees comeback attempt, and ultimately, a 9-7 victory for the Mets. The Yanks may have come up short, but they still hold a two-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East.

For the series finale, the Yankees will send Luis Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) to the hill, while the Mets counter with Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.21 ERA). Gil is looking to shake off his worst outing of the season against the Orioles and get back to the dominant form he showed during his nine-start hot streak.

Luis Gil on the bump in Queens @SportsonPrime

Remember to watch postgame coverage right after the final out on YES and the YES App. pic.twitter.com/PK0DPVwqoW

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) June 26, 2024

When it comes to the bats, the Yankees have no shortage of firepower. Aaron Judge is putting up MVP numbers once again, leading the majors in homers (28) and RBI (70). Juan Soto has also been making his presence felt with plenty of extra-base hits.

The Mets’ offense has been heating up, too, with Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor leading the charge. However, Manaea, the Mets’ starting pitcher, has been a bit up and down, allowing four runs over his last 10.2 innings.

Carlos Mendoza had a talk with Sean Manaea in the dugout between innings pic.twitter.com/Riv2n8d67x

— SNY (@SNYtv) June 20, 2024

On paper, the Yankees might have a slight edge thanks to their explosive lineup and Gil’s potential to dominate. But don’t count out the Mets just yet – they’ve been on a tear lately, and there’s just something about playing at home that brings out their best.

Even though they are on the road, we think the Bronk Bombers will etch out a victory on Wednesday. Gill has a proven track record against the Mets, and Aaron Boone’s squad has pulled out wins in four of their last six contests at Citi Field.

Yankees-Mets Pick:

• Yankees ML (-130)

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Yankees vs Mets Odds

The oddsmakers have the Yankees as -130 favorites, which implies a 56.5% probability of them leaving Citi Field with a win. The Mets, at +110 underdogs, have a 47.6% chance of pulling off the upset.

These odds aren’t too surprising when you consider the Yankees’ impressive record, stacked lineup, and recent success against the Mets. New York is currently the second betting choice in the World Series odds at +450.

Who will be World Series champs at the end of the 2024 season? 👑

Odds via @BetMGM pic.twitter.com/lMqMHPLasI

— MLB (@MLB) June 25, 2024

But here’s the thing – the Mets have been on an absolute tear lately, winning 9 of their last 11 games. And let’s not forget about home-field advantage. Those factors have likely kept the odds a bit tighter than they might otherwise be.

The over/under is set at 8.5, with bookies forecasting some fireworks in this one. However, the -120 juice is on the “under” in the MLB odds, as Gil’s potential to dominate on the mound has oddsmakers hesitant to forecast to go all-in on the scoring tonight.

Odds as of June 26, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Check out the top MLB betting site for Yankees vs Mets. 

Yankees vs Mets Probable Pitchers

Luis Gil has been nothing short of a revelation for the Yankees this season. The young right-hander ranks 11th in ERA (2.77) and 18th in strikeouts (97) among qualified starters, and he’s been even better on the road with a 2.48 ERA in 40 innings.

Sure, he had a rough outing against the Orioles recently, but I’ve got a feeling he’s going to come out with a chip on his shoulder in this one.

On the other side, we’ve got Sean Manaea taking the mound for the Mets. It’s been a bit of a roller coaster season for the lefty – his 4.16 ERA is a tad higher than his 3.73 FIP, which suggests he might be due for some positive regression.

Maneaa had some trouble with walks (3.7 per nine) but has done a decent job keeping the ball in the yard (0.9 HR/9). It’s worth noting that he owns a 4.46 career ERA against the Yankees.

If I had to give the edge to one of these starters, it’d be Gil. He’s been the more consistent performer throughout the season, and I think he’s got something to prove after his last outing. That said, if Manaea can keep the Yankees’ sluggers in check, the Mets will have a shot in this one.

Yankees vs Mets Injury Report

Injuries are always a factor in these big games, and both the Yankees and Mets have some key players on the shelf:

Yankees:

– Anthony Volpe: Illness, Day-To-Day
– DJ LeMahieu: Foot, 10-Day IL

– Oswald Peraza: Shoulder, 10-Day IL
– Giancarlo Stanton: 10-Day IL

Mets:

– Ronny Mauricio: Knee, 60-Day IL
– Sean Reid-Foley: Shoulder, 15-Day IL
– Tylor Megill: Shoulder, Day-To-Day
– David Peterson: Hip, 60-Day IL
– Kodai Senga: Shoulder, 15-Day IL
– Starling Marte: 10-Day IL

Losing Giancarlo Stanton is a tough blow for the Yankees – that guy can change a game with one swing of the bat. The Mets are missing some key pieces, too, including Starling Marte and a handful of pitchers. Those absences could put some extra pressure on the bullpen.

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