Analyzing the NFL Draft Odds for Top-5 Picks and Recommended Bets

• The NFL Draft kicks off its three-day extravaganza Thursday, April 24th
• Bettors can wager on which players will be chosen in the top-5 picks
• Read below for my 2025 NFL Draft odds and predictions to be a top-5 selection

The 2025 NFL draft is finally upon us, and the Tennessee Titans are on the clock. They’re expected to take Miami quarterback Cam Ward with the first overall selection, but after that, where each player will land offers a ton of intrigue. There’s plenty of NFL Draft odds we can dive into to make some money.

Caesars is going all in with their 2025 NFL Draft props, and a very interesting one is which players sport solid value to be a top-5 selection and receive a bear hug from commissioner Roger Goodell. Here is a look at the odds for a unique NFL Draft betting market, as well as my prediction and best bets.

NFL Draft Top-5 Pick Odds

Offensive Tackle Will Campbell leads the top-5 pick market at -475 odds (82.6% implied probability), followed by Running Back Ashton Jeanty at -220 (68.8%).

Odds as of April 23, 2025, at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars promo code to bet on the 2025 NFL Draft. Odds subject to change.

Best Value Bet for Top-5 Selection

If there’s one thing betting books have gotten sharper at over the years, it’s NFL Draft wagering. I know, because there used to be so much more value on the board and diamonds in the rough, but it’s much more difficult to find those bargains with information at an all-time premium.

Admittedly, I really want to see this happen, because in late March, I was able to find what I’d hoped was tremendous value on running back Ashton Jeanty going to the Jaguars, at a fantastic line of +5000. Suffice to say, I’m pulling for this one in a big way.

The Boise State star is the consensus top running-back to be selected in the draft. He’s also shot up draft boards, and potentially could be the first bell cow running back taken in the top-5 since Saquon Barkley was nabbed 2nd overall by the Giants in 2018.

Jeanty led the nation with a whopping 2,601 rushing yards in 14 games and had the second most TD’s with 29. He averaged an astronomical 7.0 yards per tote and was second in Heisman Trophy voting. While there wasn’t much belief initially he could be a top-5 selection, that’s changed dramatically to his current -220 price. He was born in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars are selecting fifth overall, which would be a fitting spot for him. Matt McEwan’s latest NFL mock draft also has Jeanty going at #5, though to the Raiders via trade.

NFL Draft Top-5 Prediction

• Ashton Jeanty (-220)

Shedeur Sanders An Intriguing Choice

In the months leading up to the NFL draft, it appeared to be a two-horse race to see which QB would be the first overall selection between Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. It’s a virtual certainty, based on the odds, that it will be the former.

Sanders could fit the bill for a Cleveland Browns squad (picking second overall) who desperately needs to move on from the disastrous trade for Deshaun Watson. If they decide to pass on him for Sanders’ college teammate and unicorn duel-threat CB/WR Travis Hunter, the NY Giants could come calling with the third selection.

Sanders put up fantastic stats in his final college season, throwing for 4,134 yards with 37 TDs and just ten INTs while leading Colorado to a solid 9-4 record. However, leading up to the draft, the shine on Sanders appears to have gone away, with some predicting he’ll fall into the teens or out of the first round altogether.

Oftentimes it’s smokescreen season, with rival GM’s pushing a false narrative that they hate a player, so they’re able to fall into their lap, or talking up a prospect they don’t like, in anticipation of them being overdrafted. I don’t love the price for the top selection (Will Campbell -475), and feel Sanders at +500 is still very much in play.

At +500 (16% implied probability), it’s certainly not a given he’ll go in the top-5 choices. Still, some team might fall for the glitz and glamor (and lineage of his father being Deion Sanders), to swap him up early in this draft.

NFL Draft Top-5 Prediction:

• Shedeur Sanders (+500)

The NFL Draft is one of the most highly anticipated events in the football world, as teams look to secure top talent to improve their rosters for the upcoming season. With the draft just around the corner, fans and bettors alike are eagerly analyzing the odds for the top-5 picks and considering where to place their bets.

When it comes to the top picks in the draft, there are a few players who are considered to be the cream of the crop. Quarterbacks are always a popular choice at the top of the draft, as teams look to secure a franchise signal-caller for years to come. This year, players like Trevor Lawrence from Clemson and Justin Fields from Ohio State are expected to be among the top picks.

In terms of odds, Lawrence is currently the favorite to be the number one overall pick, with odds of -5000. This means that a bettor would have to wager $5000 to win $100 on Lawrence being selected first. Fields is also a top prospect, with odds of +2000 to be the number one pick.

After Lawrence and Fields, other top prospects include Penei Sewell, an offensive tackle from Oregon, and Ja’Marr Chase, a wide receiver from LSU. Sewell is currently favored to be the third overall pick, with odds of +300, while Chase is expected to be selected fourth overall, with odds of +400.

When it comes to placing bets on the draft, there are a few strategies that bettors can consider. One option is to bet on the favorites to be selected in their projected spots, such as Lawrence going first overall. While the odds may not be as lucrative, these picks are considered to be safer bets.

Another strategy is to look for value picks further down in the draft order. For example, if a bettor believes that a player like Fields or Sewell could be selected higher than projected, placing a bet on them to be picked earlier could result in a bigger payout.

Overall, analyzing the NFL Draft odds for the top-5 picks can be a fun and potentially profitable endeavor for bettors. By considering factors such as player projections, team needs, and potential trades, bettors can make informed decisions on where to place their bets and potentially cash in on the excitement of the draft.