Analyzing the Chances of All 68 Teams to Reach the Sweet 16, Along with Top Picks

• Odds have been set for all 68 tournament teams to reach the second weekend
• Duke and Florida headline the list of favorites, while Grand Canyon and Yale are value longshots
• Read below for odds to make sweet 16 in 2025, plus best picks and longshots

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is set to tip off with 68 teams dreaming of cutting down the nets in April. But which squads actually have the best shot at making the second weekend and dancing into the Sweet 16?

 Let’s break down the Sweet 16 odds for all teams, along with some tempting underdog picks worth targeting based on the lines from top sportsbooks.

Odds to Make Sweet 16 2025

Odds as of March 18, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Check out the top March Madness betting apps for the NCAA Tournament.

Top Favorites to Make Sweet 16

As expected, the four #1 seeds — Duke (-650), Florida (-650), Houston (-300) and Auburn (-400) — top the betting board to reach the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils are led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who is the runaway favorite for the Wooden Award.

Flagg (19.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.9 APG) powers a Duke squad that swept the ACC regular season and tournament titles. The Dukies open in Raleigh against the Mount St. Mary’s/American winner and should cruise, even if Flagg (ankle) is limited.

Florida captured the SEC Tournament and may be the hottest team in the country. The Gators are a complete squad with the nation’s most efficient offense, led by stars like Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard. Florida faces #16 Norfolk State before a potential second-round clash with either #8 UConn or #9 Oklahoma.

Houston, the Midwest’s top seed, is a serious title threat thanks to their trademark elite defense under Kelvin Sampson and an offense that’s top-10 in efficiency. Auburn rounds out the #1s as the top squad in the South, with All-American candidate Johni Broome patrolling the paint.

Among #2 seeds, Tennessee (-275) and St. John’s (-150) look undervalued at their current odds. The Vols have the third-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation and an experienced, clutch backcourt in Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier (40.5% from three).

St. John’s will be a popular Sweet 16 pick after a dominant run to the Big East title. The Red Storm lead the country in defensive efficiency and have a balanced roster ready for a deep run under Rick Pitino.

Longshot Picks to Make the Sweet 16

If you’re hunting for a bigger payday, look no further than Grand Canyon (+1400), who have the ingredients to be this year’s bracket buster. The Antelopes are led by coach Bryce Drew, who authored one of March’s most iconic moments with his buzzer-beater for Valparaiso in 1998.

GCU has an upset pedigree, having shocked St. Mary’s previously, and matches up well with power-conference teams. Their defensive identity and experience make them a live underdog.

Another mid-major giant slayer to consider is Yale (+900), who toppled Auburn in last year’s Big Dance. This Bulldog iteration is led by Bez Mbeng and plays a disciplined, tempo-controlling style that’s caused headaches before. Sharp money has steamed the Elis down from their opening +1000 price, too.

Colorado State (+350) is another trendy longshot pick after a run to the Mountain West title. The Rams are one of the nation’s hottest teams and dominated their league, winning by double digits in nearly every game.

Of course, no Cinderella pick discussion is complete without Gonzaga (+250). The Zags may not have their typical gaudy record, but they have one of the nation’s best offenses and a history of exceeding expectations in March.

With projected top-five NBA pick Seamus Boone running the show, Gonzaga is a classic high-ceiling team. Keep an eye on defensive-minded Clemson (+130), three-point bombing UC San Diego (+375), and Liberty (+1000) as other Sweet 16 sleepers worth a look.

Teams to Avoid in Sweet 16 Odds

The Sweet 16 is often a spot for a big-name program to unexpectedly fall, and Kentucky (+110) fits that mold this year. The Wildcats have the talent to beat anyone, but they’ve been far too inconsistent and prone to head-scratching upsets to trust.

Kansas (+190) is another blue blood that looks shaky. Their defense has taken a major step back, and they could run into Illinois in the second round. That spells major trouble.

Likewise, Wisconsin (-115) feels overvalued as a #3 seed that doesn’t rank in the top 10 of any major metrics. The Badgers struggled against elite competition this year and could get bounced early.

Other teams to be wary of at their price include reigning champion UConn (+600), who is outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency, and analytics favorite Iowa State (-175), who limped to the finish line plagued by injuries.

March is always unpredictable, but mixing some safe favorites with smart value plays, and a couple of longshot fliers should set you up nicely for Sweet 16 betting. With our printable March Madness bracket officially live, let the Madness begin!

As March Madness approaches, basketball fans and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating the start of the NCAA tournament. With 68 teams vying for a spot in the coveted Sweet 16, the competition is sure to be fierce. In this article, we will analyze the chances of all 68 teams to reach the Sweet 16, along with some top picks to watch out for.

When it comes to predicting which teams will make it to the Sweet 16, there are a number of factors to consider. One of the most important is the team’s seeding. Historically, higher-seeded teams have a better chance of advancing to the Sweet 16, as they are matched up against lower-seeded teams in the early rounds. However, upsets are always a possibility, so it’s important to not discount the lower-seeded teams entirely.

Another key factor to consider is the team’s performance throughout the regular season and conference tournaments. Teams that have been playing well leading up to the NCAA tournament are likely to have momentum on their side, which can be a crucial factor in determining their success.

With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at some of the top picks to reach the Sweet 16:

1. Gonzaga Bulldogs – The Bulldogs have been dominant all season long, boasting an impressive record and a high seed in the tournament. With a strong offense and solid defense, Gonzaga is a favorite to make a deep run in the tournament.

2. Baylor Bears – Baylor has also had a strong season, with only a few losses on their record. The Bears have a balanced team that can score from inside and outside, making them a tough matchup for any opponent.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini – Illinois has been on fire as of late, winning the Big Ten tournament and earning a high seed in the NCAA tournament. Led by star player Ayo Dosunmu, the Fighting Illini have the talent and experience to make a deep run in March Madness.

Of course, these are just a few of the top picks to reach the Sweet 16. With so many talented teams in the field, anything can happen in March Madness. As fans gear up for the start of the tournament, all eyes will be on these teams and more as they battle it out for a spot in the Sweet 16.