Sep 15, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
- The Week 3 NFL odds are out and there are two home underdogs that I love
- The 2-0 Saints and their NFL-best +62 point differential are 2.5-point home ‘dogs to the Eagles
- See my favorite NFL Week 3 ATS picks and early lines to target
Save for tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Falcons and Eagles, Week 2 is in the books. The opening NFL Week 3 odds are out for all 16 games and I immediately see a couple of home underdogs who should be favored.
The table below lists my three favorite NFL Week 3 ATS picks to target early before the lines move.
Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Pick | Date/Time |
|---|---|---|
| Eagles vs Saints | Saints -1.5 (+114) at FanDuel | Sunday, Sep. 22 (1:00 pm ET) |
| Texans vs Vikings | Vikings +3.5 (-156) at FanDuel | Sunday, Sep. 22 (1:00 pm ET) |
| Commanders vs Bengals | Commanders +8.5 (-110) at Caesars | Monday, Sep. 23 (8:15 pm ET) |
All three of my Week 3 ATS picks are underdogs. The first two games – Eagles vs Saints, and Texans vs Vikings – are in the 1:00 pm ET timeslot on Sunday, Sep. 22. The third – Commanders vs Bengals – is the latter kickoff in a Monday Night Football doubleheader on Sep. 23. Jaguars vs Bills is the early kickoff in said doubleheader at 7:30 pm ET.
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL picks: 7-5 (+1.84 units)
Odds as of Sep. 16. Download the top football betting apps ahead of NFL Week 3.
Check out SBD’s NFL odds page during the week to see the up-to-date lines, and our NFL public betting percentages page to see which way the public is betting the Week 3 games.
Week 3 ATS Pick #1: Saints -2.5 (+126) Over Eagles
It’s early days yet but there’s no disputing that the New Orleans Saints (2-0, 1-0 home, 2-0 ATS) have been the most-impressive team so far in the 2024 season. The Saints demolished Carolina 47-10 at home in Week 1. Many chalked that up to subpar competition – Carolina’s win total has already dropped to just 3.5 – but New Orleans backed up their Week 1 victory with a stunning 44-19 road win at Dallas as 6.5-point underdogs.
Alvin Kamara turned back the clock with a 180 total yards and four touchdowns as the Saints absolutely shredded the Cowboys defense for five first-half majors.
There goes Alvin Kamara for 57 yards!
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/F0NOkTSZ7g— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
The only time we’ve seen the Eagles (1-0, 0-0 away, 1-0 ATS) this season, they outgunned Green Bay 34-29 down in Brazil in Week 1. But remember, this is the same team that finished last year with six setbacks in its final seven games including the postseason. The defense doesn’t look any better than the porous unit we saw at the end of 2023, allowing 414 total yards to the Packers.
New Orleans’ defense, which was already an above-average unit last year, has clearly taken big steps forward, and I expect the Saints’ surprisingly dynamic offense to keep rolling in Week 3.
Philly is favored by as many as 2.5 points in the early Saints vs Eagles odds. I’m not just taking the Saints to cover that spread; I’m targeting an alt-line of New Orleans -2.5, which comes with a tidy +126 price tag.
Week 3 ATS Pick #2: Vikings +3.5 (-156) Over Texans
Minnesota caught a break in Week 2, getting to face the 49ers sans Christian McCaffrey. But you still have to give the Vikings (2-0, 1-0 home, 2-0 ATS) credit for their 23-17 win over the reigning NFC champions. Led by 133 receiving yards from Justin Jefferson, the Vikes put up over 400 yards of offense on San Francisco’s vaunted defense. (The Niners held Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to just 266 total yards in a 32-19 win in Week 1.)
Sam Darnold looks unrecognizable under center for the Vikings. He had 208 yards and two TDS on 79.2% passing against the Giants in an easy 28-6 Week 1 victory, and then posted 268 yards and another two TDs against San Francisco in Week 2.
Houston (2-0, 1-0 away, 0-2 ATS) has gotten the job done in the win column, but they have yet to cover the spread in 2024. Prized offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs has just 70 total receiving yards through two games. US Bank Stadium is a tough place to come into, notwithstanding Minnesota’s 2-6 record at home last year. The line on this game at FanDuel is Texans -2.5. I am buying Minnesota an extra point to get the spread over a field goal at -156 odds.
Week 3 ATS Pick #3: Commanders +8.5 (+) Over Bengals
The 2024 Bengals (0-2, 0-1 home, 1-1 ATS) just don’t the defense to be laying this many points, unless they’re playing the Panthers. After a miserable Week 1 performance against New England (16-10 loss as 8.5-point favorites), Joe Burrow and company put in a much better showing in Week 2, falling 26-25 at Kansas City on a last-second field goal as 6.5-point road underdogs.
But the common theme coming out of Cincy’s first two games is that they cannot stop the run. The Chiefs put up 137 rushing yards at 5.1 yards per carry, while the Pats shredded the Bengal front seven for 170 yards at 4.4 YPC. That plays exactly into what Washington wants to do with fleet-footed rookie Jayden Daniels under center. The Commanders racked up 235 rushing yards in their 21-18 victory over the Giants yesterday. They also had 138 on 4.4 YPC in their 37-20 Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay.
In hostile territory, the young Commanders will employ another run-heavy game plan that churns as much clock as possible. I do believe Cincinnati will notch its first victory of the season but I don’t expect a blowout. The early NFL public betting splits agree: Washington is getting 57% of ATS handle while the under (47.5) is getting 78%.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
As we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, there are several intriguing matchups on the schedule that are worth analyzing from a betting perspective. With early betting lines already available, it’s a good time to start looking at potential opportunities to make some money.
One of the most anticipated matchups of the week is the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams are considered Super Bowl contenders, and this game could have significant implications for playoff seeding later in the season. The early betting line has the Ravens as 3-point favorites, but this could change as more bets come in. With two high-powered offenses going head-to-head, this game has the potential to be a shootout, so taking the over on the total points scored could be a smart bet.
Another interesting matchup to keep an eye on is the New England Patriots taking on the New Orleans Saints. The Patriots have looked strong in their first two games under rookie quarterback Mac Jones, while the Saints are coming off a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers. The early betting line has the Patriots as 3-point favorites, but this could be a close game that comes down to the wire. Taking the under on the total points scored could be a safe bet in this matchup.
In terms of underdogs to consider betting on in Week 3, the Las Vegas Raiders could be a good option. They are currently 4-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins, but they have looked impressive in their first two games and could pull off an upset on the road. The Raiders have a strong offense led by quarterback Derek Carr, and their defense has shown improvement from last season. Taking the Raiders against the spread could be a smart play in this matchup.
Overall, Week 3 of the NFL season is shaping up to be an exciting one with several intriguing matchups on the schedule. By analyzing the early betting lines and making informed predictions against the spread, bettors can potentially capitalize on some profitable opportunities. As always, it’s important to do your own research and consider all factors before placing any bets. Good luck!
