Analyzing NFL Week 13 Matchups: Predictions Against the Spread and Early Betting Lines to Consider

• The NFL Week 13 odds have been posted
• My favorite early Week 13 lines to target include a division leader catching points on the road
• Below, see my three early NFL Week 13 picks against the spread

Just six weeks remain in the 2024-25 NFL regular season. Week 13 includes a trio of Thanksgiving games (Bears vs Lions, Giants vs Cowboys, Dolphins vs Packers) but my Week 13 ATS picks are all for games in the early window on Sunday, Dec. 2.

Early NFL Week 13 ATS Picks

I’m taking three underdogs in Week 13. With the Steelers, I’m buying the spread up half a point from 3.0 to 3.5. With the Patriots, I’m moving the line from +2.5 to -1.5 to get it into plus-money.

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Week 13 ATS Pick #1: Steelers (+3.5) at Bengals

Something is broken in Cincinnati (4-7, 2-4 home, 6-5 ATS) and I highly doubt it’s getting fixed this season. In reality, last week was the last stand for the Bengals. Thanks to a 33-27 loss to the Chargers, they’re now 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with just six games remaining. Even if the Bengals win out, they’ll be 10-7 and there’s a very good chance it will take 11 wins to get a playoff spot.

In short, this is a lost season for the Bengals and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the effort wane down the stretch. The defense has been horrendous all year. The sit fifth-last in scoring (26.9 PPG) and rate 23rd overall at PFF.

Pittsburgh (8-3, 4-2 away, 8-3 ATS) on the other hand brings the third-rated defense at PFF and number four D in terms of points allowed (16.9 PPG). Pittsburgh needs a win to stay ahead of the 8-4 Ravens in the AFC North and I see them bullying the Bengals at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Week 13 ATS Pick #2: Cardinals (+4) at Vikings

Call me crazy but I still don’t think the Vikings (9-2, 4-1 home, 7-3-1) are all that good. They played extremely well the first few weeks of the season but the past six weeks have been a much different story. Since losing back-to-back games to Lions (31-29 home) and Rams (30-20) away, they have won four in a row, but those were all unconvincing wins over bottom-feeder teams: Colts (21-13 home), Jaguars (12-7 away), Titans (23-13 away), and Bears (30-27 OT away).

Arizona (6-5, 2-3 away, 7-4 ATS) had a four-game win streak snapped at Seattle in Week 12 (16-6) in what was a brutally off night for the entire offense. I’d be more worried about Arizona if the defense was showing signs of cracking. (They were abysmal last season and have made huge strides in terms of points allowed, improving from 26.8 PPG in 2023 to 21.5 PPG in 2024.)

The Cardinals are an above-average team that will keep this close against another above-average but also overrated Minnesota group.

Week 13 ATS Pick #3: Patriots -1.5 (+135) vs Colts

My last pick of the week is a hard fade of the Indianapolis Colts (5-7, 2-4 away, 8-4 ATS). After a zero-touchdown Week 12 against the Lions, sophomore QB Anthony Richardson now has just five TD passes and seven interceptions on 191 pass attempts this season, along with an ugly 47.1 completion percentage.

The Patriots (3-9, 1-4 home, 4-7-1 ATS) aren’t good by any stretch of the imagination, but their defense is good enough to keep the sputtering Indy offense in check. And New England’s has been nothing short of competitive the last month-plus. They’re 2-3 straight-up in their last five two of the three losses were very narrow (20-17 at the Titans, 28-22 vs the Rams).

The difference between these two teams is minimal and I like the value on the Pats to cover an alt-spread of -1.5 at +138 odds.

As we head into Week 13 of the NFL season, there are some exciting matchups on the schedule that are sure to have fans on the edge of their seats. With playoff implications on the line for many teams, it’s important to take a closer look at the matchups and consider how they may play out against the spread.

One of the most intriguing matchups of the week is the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs are coming off a big win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and are looking to solidify their spot in the AFC playoff race. The Broncos, on the other hand, have struggled in recent weeks and are in danger of falling out of contention. The early betting line has the Chiefs favored by 6 points, but it’s worth considering whether they can cover that spread on the road against a division rival.

Another game to keep an eye on is the clash between the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Giants. The Seahawks have been one of the top teams in the NFC this season, but the Giants have been playing surprisingly well in recent weeks. The early betting line has the Seahawks favored by 4 points, but with the Giants defense playing at a high level, it may be worth considering taking them against the spread.

In addition to these marquee matchups, there are several other games in Week 13 that could provide value for bettors looking to make some early wagers. The New Orleans Saints are set to take on the Atlanta Falcons in a divisional showdown, with the Saints favored by 3 points. The Green Bay Packers will face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, with the Packers favored by 8 points. And the Buffalo Bills will square off against the San Francisco 49ers, with the Bills favored by 2.5 points.

As always, it’s important to do your own research and analysis before placing any bets on NFL games. Consider factors such as injuries, weather conditions, and recent performance when making your predictions against the spread. And remember, anything can happen on any given Sunday in the NFL, so be prepared for some surprises along the way. Good luck with your bets in Week 13!