Analysis of UFC Vegas 95 Matchup: Tybura vs Spivac 2 – Odds, Predictions, and Props

Feb 29, 2020; Norfolk, Virginia, USA; Marcin Tybura (red gloves) fights Serghei Spivac (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Chartway Arena. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports

• UFC Vegas 95 takes place this Saturday, August 10, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
• Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac 2 headlines the main card in a heavyweight rematch
• Read below for UFC Vegas 95 odds, predictions and props for Saturday night

The UFC is back at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday, August 10, for UFC Vegas 95. The event features a heavyweight rematch between Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac in the main event, with the prelims kicking off at 5 p.m. ET and the main card following at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+.

Let’s dive into our UFC Vegas 95 predictions, along with odds and best props to target.

UFC Vegas 95 Odds

The updated UFC 95 odds show Chris Gutierrez as the heaviest moneyline favorite on the card at -525 in his bout with Quang Le. That’s a confident 85.7% implied chance of winning.

Odds as of August 8, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the best betting promo codes for UFC Vegas 95. 

Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac Prediction

In the main event, we have a fascinating rematch between top-10 heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. Their first meeting in 2020 saw Tybura dominate with his grappling and control en route to a unanimous decision win. However, a lot has changed since then.

Tybura, now 38, is coming off a submission win over Tai Tuivasa, showcasing his well-rounded game. While his experience and grappling skills are undeniable, his age and recent struggles to secure takedowns consistently could be a concern.

On the other hand, Spivac has transformed physically, packing on muscle to eliminate the size disadvantage he faced in their first fight. The 29-year-old has also honed his wrestling skills, securing an impressive 21 takedowns in his last eight outings.

With his improved cardio and relentless pressure, Spivac has the tools to outlast Tybura in a grueling battle.

I’m leaning towards Spivac to avenge his loss and secure a decision victory. The oddsmakers agree, listing him as a -170 favorite. Expect a close battle, with Spivac emerging victorious via decision.

• Pick: Serghei Spivac (-170)

Co-Main Event: Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal Prediction

The co-main event pits gritty veteran Damon Jackson against rising prospect Chepe Mariscal in a featherweight clash.

Jackson, a crafty veteran, has proven to be a tough test for up-and-comers, as evidenced by his win over the previously undefeated Pat Sabatini. However, at 35, his striking limitations and age could be a liability against a younger, more dynamic fighter like Mariscal.

I asked Damon Jackson about what he gains from a win against Chepe Mariscal on Saturday#UFCVegas95 l @SportskeedaMMA pic.twitter.com/qfm2apXsrb

— Jake Foley🇺🇸🥋 (@JFoMMATalk) August 7, 2024

Mariscal, a judo black belt with a collegiate wrestling background, has been on a tear in the UFC, winning his last three fights. His well-rounded skill set, aggressive style, and athleticism make him a handful for anyone in the division.

I  expect Mariscal’s youth, striking advantage, and ability to control where the fight takes place to be the difference-makers. Look for him to outstrike Jackson and secure a late stoppage or decision win.

• Pick: Chepe Mariscal (-218)

UFC 95 Quick Picks

Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov Prediction

Rising star Danny Barlow has been on a roll, and I expect him to make quick work of short-notice replacement Nikolay Veretennikov. Barlow’s full training camp, reach advantage, and knockout power should lead to a first-round TKO victory.

• Pick: Danny Barlow (-375)

Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le Best Bet

Chris Gutierrez is a seasoned veteran taking on UFC newcomer Quang Le. Gutierrez’s experience, well-rounded game, and calf kicks should be too much for Le, who’s stepping up on short notice. I like Gutierrez to win by KO/TKO.

• Pick: Chris Gutierrez via KO/TKO

Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler Prediction

This women’s bantamweight bout is a close one, but I’m siding with the underdog Chelsea Chandler. Her size, strength, and aggressive wrestling could be the keys to victory against the more technical Yana Santos.

• Pick: Chelsea Chandler via decision

Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad Pick

In a battle of women’s bantamweight strikers, I favor Karol Rosa to outwork Pannie Kianzad over three rounds. Rosa’s higher output, wrestling ability, and youth give her the edge in this matchup.

• Pick: Karol Rosa via decision

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