Analysis of UConn vs USC Matchup: Odds, Predictions, and Recommended Bets for Elite Eight Game

• The #1 USC Trojans sans JuJu Watkins face the #2 UConn Huskies on Monday in the Elite Eight in Spokane
• The Huskies are massive favorites against a Trojan team missing the national player-of-the-year favorite
• Below, see the UConn vs USC odds, predictions, and best bets for March 31st

What was shaping out to be an all-time classic Elite Eight game between the #1 USC Trojans (31-3) and #2 UConn Huskies (34-3) was tragically derailed in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament when Trojan star and national player-of-the-year favorite JuJu Watkins (23.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.4 APG) suffered a season-ending leg injury.

Without the 6’2 sophomore in the lineup, the #1 Trojans find themselves massive underdogs against the #2 Huskies in the Regional 4 final in Spokane on Monday night (6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET tipoff).

UConn vs USC Odds

The current UConn vs USC point spread favors the Huskies by 14.5 points. On the moneyline, Paige Bueckers and company a unbettably short -2000 favorites, giving UConn a 95.24% implied win probability. The Trojans come back as +1000 underdogs (9.09% implied win probability). The game total is sitting at 137.5 with -110 odds each way.

Odds as of March 31 at BetMGM. Lock in the top betting promos for tonight’s pair of Elite Eight games.

USC already owns a victory over UConn, and that victory, which came in Storrs, was one of the most-impressive wins of the season by any team. The Trojans left Connecticut with a 72-70 win. But Watkins had 34.7% of the teams points (25, plus six rebounds and five assists).

UConn enters the Elite Eight as the -125 favorite to win the national championship, well ahead of second-favorite South Carolina (+220). USC is a +5000 longshot, the worst odds of any of the six remaining teams.

The winner of tonight’s game will face Regional 1-winner, #1 UCLA, in the Final Four on Friday, April 4. The other national semifinal will feature Regional 2-winner South Carolina against either #2 TCU or #1 Texas, who meet in the Regional 3 final at 7:00 pm ET tonight in Birmingham, AL.

Trojans Surviving Without Watkins

USC’s first full game without their star was in the Sweet 16 against #5 Kansas State. But keep in mind that Watkins suffered her devastating leg injury just five minutes into USC’s second-round game against #9 Mississippi State. So, in reality, USC has played two games without Watkins.

Both were positive building blocks for Lindsay Gottlieb’s team. They routed the Bulldogs 96-59, getting a brilliant 36-point, nine-rebound performance from senior forward and second-leading scorer Kiki Iriafen (18.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.9 APG). USC easily covered as 18.5-point favorites.

The Trojans again covered the spread against K-State in the Sweet 16, emerging with a 67-61 win as slim 1.5-point chalk. Encouragingly, that win came without Iriafen putting in an all-world performance. USC’s de facto go-to scorer without Watkins, Iriafen was limited to just seven points on an ugly 3-of-13 performance from the field. Kennedy Smith (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 APG) had a game-high 19 while freshman Avery Howell had a career-high 18 starting in place of Watkins.

UConn vs USC Ratings & Score Prediction

Even without taking the Watkins injury into consideration, the nation’s leading analytics site for women’s basketball (barttorvik.com) projected a fairly comfortable UConn victory, giving the Huskies an eight-point cushion (72-64).

Sportsbooks don’t take Torvik as gospel, at least not to the extent that KenPom rules men’s college basketball opening lines but, for all intents and purposes, the Watkins injury is accounting for roughly six to eight points in the UConn/USC point spread.

UConn vs USC Picks

• UConn -14.5 (-110)

The Huskies have been absolutely rolling opponents in the tournament and, really, for the better part of the last 3.5 months. The Huskies have only lost one game in 2025 (an 80-76 true-road game at Tennessee on Feb. 6), going 24-1 in that span with 21 of those victories coming by at least 20 points. All 24 wins were by double-digits.

There has been plenty of stiff competition for UConn, as well. They decimated South Carolina – the second-rated team in the country at Torvik – 87-58 on the road on Feb. 16.

The early-season between these teams wa s a lifetime ago. UConn was the second-rated team in the country at that point. Now, South Carolina – a team UConn just blew out on the road – is the only team in the Huskies’ stratosphere, statistically.

The highly anticipated Elite Eight matchup between the University of Connecticut (UConn) and the University of Southern California (USC) is set to be a thrilling showdown between two powerhouse teams. Both teams have had impressive runs in the NCAA tournament so far, with UConn coming off a dominant win over Baylor and USC defeating Kansas in a close game.

When looking at the odds for this matchup, UConn is currently favored to win with a spread of -4.5 points. This is not surprising given UConn’s strong performance throughout the tournament and their experienced roster led by star player Paige Bueckers. USC, on the other hand, has been a bit of a dark horse in this tournament but has shown that they are a force to be reckoned with.

In terms of predictions, many analysts believe that UConn will come out on top in this game. Their depth and talent have been unmatched so far, and they have shown the ability to dominate on both ends of the court. USC will need to bring their A-game if they want to pull off an upset, but it will be a tough task against a team as talented as UConn.

For those looking to place bets on this game, there are a few recommended options to consider. Taking UConn to cover the spread of -4.5 points seems like a safe bet given their strong performance in the tournament thus far. Additionally, betting on the over/under total points scored in the game could also be a good option, as both teams have shown the ability to put up big numbers.

Overall, the UConn vs USC matchup is shaping up to be an exciting game with high stakes on the line. Both teams have proven themselves as contenders in this tournament, but only one will advance to the Final Four. It will be interesting to see how this game unfolds and which team will come out on top in the end.