Analysis of UAB vs Memphis Matchup: Odds and Predictions for AAC Tournament Final

• The #16 Memphis Tigers are a 3.5-point favorite over the UAB Blazers in today’s AAC Tournament Final
• Tyrese Hunter (ankle) is doubtful for the Tigers
• See my UAB vs Memphis odds and predictions for the AAC Championship Game, below

The #16 Memphis Tigers (28-5, 16-2 AAC) have been playing with fire throughout the 2025 AAC Tournament. Today, I’m betting it’s going to finally catch up with them. The Tigers will face the red-hot UAB Blazers (22-11, 13-5 AAC) in the conference championship, and the spread is moving against them in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:15pm ET at the Dickies Arena, in Fort Worth, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

UAB vs Memphis Odds

Memphis is currently favored by 3.5-points and -175 on the moneyline, while the total is sitting at 158.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, the spread has moved two points towards the Blazers since opening odds were released, while the total is down three points. UAB meanwhile, comes back as +145 moneyline underdogs.

Odds as of March 16 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings legal states.

Memphis Likely Minus Hunter

A major reason for the spread and total moves is the Tigers injury situation. Star guard Tyrese Hunter suffered an ankle injury in the semifinal win over Tulane, and was seen in a walking boot following the game. The senior is considered doubtful to play, and his production will be difficult to replace.

Hunter averages 14 points and 4 assists per contest. He shoots 40% from three, and produces two steals per outing. Without him, Baraka Okojie will need to log more minutes, and the drop off in talent is steep. Okojie typically plays only 10 minutes per game and contributes very little. His season long stat line is 1.4 / 1.2 / 1.0 per contest, and he shoots an abysmal 38% from the free throw line.

UAB vs Memphis Predictions (AAC Tournament Final)

• UAB Blazers +3.5 (-115)

Hunter’s injury is key for making UAB +3.5 my best bet, but it’s not the only reason. Memphis has been playing with its food all tournament long. They barely survived their quarterfinal and semifinal matchups versus Wichita State and Tulane, squeaking out one possession wins as 8.5-point favorites each time.

On the bright side, they have beaten UAB handily in both meetings this season, but that was with a healthy Hunter. They’re going to need a massive output now from PJ Haggerty, who did drop 42 points two games ago.

Despite ranking 16th in the AP top-25, the Tigers grade out 51st per Kenpom. That’s lower than plenty of bubble teams in the March Madness odds. They’re 71st in offensive rating, which is a far cry from where the Blazers check in.

UAB vs Memphis Stats

UAB is 34th in offensive rating, and 25th in offensive efficiency since the start of February. They crash the offensive glass at an elite rate, and have one of the lowest turnover percentages in the nation.

The offense runs through Yaxel Lendeborg, who’s been dominant so far in the conference tournament. He’s scored 53 points in two games, to go along with 33 rebounds and 12 assists. Those are Nikola Jokic type numbers.

Lendeborg has struggled in two games versus Memphis this season, but with his team’s NCAA Tournament hopes on the line, I expect a big-time performance.

One more reason to like UAB, is the motivation factor. The Tigers will be dancing next week no matter what. For the Blazers, it’s win and you’re in, otherwise it will be a nerve wracking Sunday evening waiting around to see if their name is called.

UAB enters play with 10 wins in its last 13 games, and I’m betting they earn an automatic bid to March Madness this afternoon.

The American Athletic Conference (AAC) Tournament final is set to be an exciting matchup between the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) and the University of Memphis. Both teams have had successful seasons and are looking to secure a conference championship.

UAB comes into the final as the underdog, having finished the regular season with a 17-11 record. However, they have been on a hot streak in the tournament, knocking off top-seeded Houston in the semifinals. Led by star guard Jordan Walker, who is averaging 17 points per game, UAB has shown they have what it takes to compete with the best teams in the conference.

On the other hand, Memphis has had a strong season, finishing with a 20-8 record and earning the second seed in the tournament. They are led by freshman sensation Jalen Duren, who is averaging a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. Memphis has a deep roster with multiple scoring options, making them a tough team to defend against.

In terms of odds and predictions for the final, Memphis comes in as the favorite. They have been consistent throughout the season and have the talent to match up well against UAB. However, UAB has shown they are capable of pulling off upsets and could make this game interesting.

Ultimately, this matchup will come down to which team can execute their game plan and make key plays down the stretch. Both teams have the potential to win, but Memphis may have the slight edge in terms of talent and experience. It should be a competitive and entertaining final that fans won’t want to miss.