- The 97th Academy Awards will air live on Sunday, March 2nd, 2025 on ABC
- Anora is the favorite for Best Picture, but The Brutalist and Conclave remain strong contenders
- See the updated 2025 Oscar odds and trends in the hours leading up to the 97th Academy Awards
Hollywood’s biggest night, the 97th Academy Awards, is set to take place on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
With less than two hours until the ceremony begins, let’s take a closer look at the current Kalshi market odds for the top categories at this year’s Oscars.
Best Picture Odds
| Film | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anora | 65¢ | 36¢ | 65% | -9 (decreasing) |
| Conclave | 23¢ | 78¢ | 23% | +16 (increasing significantly) |
| The Brutalist | 13¢ | 88¢ | 13% | -4 (decreasing) |
| A Complete Unknown | 2¢ | 99¢ | 2% | No significant trend |
| Others (Emilia Perez, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Wicked, The Substance) | 1¢ | 1% | No significant trend |
Odds via Kalshi as of March 2nd, 2025. Learn how to bet the Oscars at Kalshi Predictive Trading.
Conclave Surges, Anora Remains Favorite
Anora, the gripping drama about a Brooklyn stripper who marries a Russian oligarch’s son, remains the Best Picture frontrunner with a 65% implied probability. However, its lead has decreased by 9 points in recent trading, while Conclave, the Vatican thriller, has seen a significant 16-point surge.
Conclave’s momentum can be attributed to its recent win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. While this honor isn’t a perfect predictor of Best Picture success (only six of the last ten SAG Ensemble winners have gone on to claim the top Oscar), it undoubtedly positions Conclave as Anora’s strongest competitor.
The Brutalist, which tells the story of a Holocaust survivor’s journey as an architect in America, sits third in the odds with a 13% chance. Despite praise for its scale and Adrien Brody’s lead performance, it has seen a 4-point dip in the betting markets.
Best Actor Odds
| Actor | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | 69¢ | 32¢ | 69% | -7 (decreasing) |
| Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | 30¢ | 71¢ | 30% | +11 (increasing) |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | 4¢ | 97¢ | 4% | No significant trend |
| Others (Colman Domingo, Sebastian Stan) | 1¢ | 1% | No significant trend |
Chalamet Challenges Brody’s Lead
Adrien Brody, who portrays Holocaust survivor and architect László Tóth in The Brutalist, remains the Best Actor favorite with a 69% implied probability. However, his lead has decreased by 7 points, while Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) has seen an 11-point boost, bringing his chances to 30%.
Chalamet’s rise can be attributed to his recent SAG Award win for his portrayal of Bob Dylan. Historically, the SAG Best Actor winner has gone on to claim the Oscar 83% of the time since 2010. While Brody swept the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA, Chalamet’s SAG victory suggests the race may be tighter than we initially thought.
Ralph Fiennes, nominated for his role as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence in Conclave, sits a distant third with a 4% chance. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) and Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) are given virtually no chance by the betting market.
Best Actress Odds
| Actress | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | 67¢ | 35¢ | 67% | +23 (increasing significantly) |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | 28¢ | 73¢ | 28% | -22 (decreasing significantly) |
| Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) | 9¢ | 92¢ | 9% | +2 (slightly increasing) |
Moore, Madison Swap Places
The Best Actress race has seen a dramatic shift, with Demi Moore (The Substance) and Mikey Madison (Anora) essentially swapping positions in the betting markets. Moore, who plays an aging actress undergoing a grotesque transformation to stay relevant, has surged 23 points to a 67% chance.
Meanwhile, Madison, who portrays a Brooklyn stripper navigating a doomed marriage to a Russian oligarch’s son, has seen a substantial 22-point drop to a 28% chance. Moore’s rise can be attributed to her wins at the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Awards.
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), who won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, sits third with a 9% chance, seeing a slight 2-point uptick. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) have less than a 1% chance.
Best Director Odds
| Director | Yes Price | No Price | Implied Probability | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Baker (Anora) | 69¢ | 32¢ | 68% | +5 (increasing) |
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | 31¢ | 70¢ | 31% | -8 (decreasing) |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | 4¢ | 99¢ | 4% | +3 (slightly increasing) |
Baker Dominates Director Race
Sean Baker (Anora) has strengthened his position as the Best Director frontrunner, with a 68% implied probability, a 5-point increase. Baker’s wins at the Directors Guild, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe awards make him the clear favorite.
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) sits second with a 31% chance, an 8-point decrease. Despite Corbet’s Golden Globe (Drama) and Venice Silver Lion wins, Baker’s industry momentum and Anora’s Best Picture frontrunner status give him a decisive edge.
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) has seen a slight 3-point uptick to a 4% chance, notable as the first woman nominated in the category since 2021. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) have minimal chances, according to the betting market.
As the 97th Academy Awards approach, film enthusiasts and industry insiders are eagerly anticipating the announcement of this year’s Oscar winners. With the nominations already out, speculation is rife about which films and actors will take home the coveted golden statuettes on the big night.
One of the most talked-about categories this year is Best Picture, with a diverse range of films vying for the top prize. According to the latest Oscar odds, the frontrunners in this category include “The Power of the Dog,” “Belfast,” and “Dune.” “The Power of the Dog,” directed by Jane Campion, has been receiving critical acclaim for its performances and storytelling, making it a strong contender for Best Picture.
In the Best Director category, Jane Campion is also a favorite to win for her work on “The Power of the Dog.” Other directors in contention include Steven Spielberg for “West Side Story” and Paul Thomas Anderson for “Licorice Pizza.” Campion’s nomination marks a historic moment as she could become only the third woman to win the Best Director Oscar.
When it comes to the acting categories, there are several standout performances that are generating buzz. Will Smith is a frontrunner for Best Actor for his role in “King Richard,” while Jessica Chastain is a favorite for Best Actress for her portrayal of Tammy Faye Bakker in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” Supporting actor categories are also highly competitive, with Troy Kotsur (“CODA”) and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”) leading the pack.
In terms of trends, diversity and inclusion continue to be important themes at this year’s Oscars. With a record number of women and people of color nominated in various categories, there is a sense of progress and representation in Hollywood. Additionally, streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime Video have made a significant impact on this year’s nominations, with films like “The Power of the Dog” and “Don’t Look Up” receiving multiple nods.
As we count down to the 97th Academy Awards ceremony, it will be interesting to see how the latest Oscar odds play out and which films and actors ultimately emerge victorious. With so many talented contenders in the mix, this year’s Oscars promise to be an exciting and memorable event for film fans around the world.
