Sorry to all teams who are not one of the eight listed in this article – this trend says you have no shot at winning Super Bowl 59.
- The race for Super Bowl 59 is about to kickoff with the 2024-25 NFL regular season starting on September 5
- One of my yearly NFL metrics has brought us a six-year trend that limits the possible Super Bowl champion to just one of eight teams
- See which eight teams have a chance to win the 2025 Super Bowl, according to this trend
I would like to start this off by apologizing to all the players, coaches, fans, and bettors holding a Super Bowl ticket of teams not named the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, and Atlanta Falcons. According to a six-year trend stemming from my preseason NFL Power Rankings, which are calculated using betting data and are not based on opinion, the eight teams I just listed are the only squads who have a chance to win Super Bowl 59.
Here’s a quick look at the last six Super Bowl champions:
- Super Bowl 58: Kansas City Chiefs (#1 in my Power Rankings)
- Super Bowl 57: Kansas City Chiefs (#6)
- Super Bowl 56: Los Angeles Rams: (#7)
- Super Bowl 55: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#8)
- Super Bowl 54: Kansas City Chiefs (#4)
- Super Bowl 53: New England Patriots (#1)
As you can see, each of the last six Super Bowl champions were ranked among the top eight teams in my NFL Power Rankings. We can even go back another three years and say the Super Bowl champ has been among the top eight teams in eight of the last nine seasons – the Patriots were ranked #3 en route to winning Super Bowl 51, and the Broncos were #4 prior to winning Super Bowl 50. I only started doing this calculation nine years ago, so I don’t have the data to back the trend up going any further back, though the Patriots (SB49) and Seahawks (SB48) were almost certainly among the top eight teams in ATS +/- those offseasons.
The only team to win the Super Bowl who was not among the top eight teams in my Power Rankings was the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Patriots (who were #1 that year) in Super Bowl 52. The Eagles were ranked #22 that offseason.
2025 Super Bowl Predictions
The good news for bettors is it’s not too late to jump on one of these eight teams! The 2024-25 NFL season is about to kickoff on Thursday, September 5, with two of the eight teams going head-to-head in the Ravens and Chiefs.
So, let’s take a quick look at the Super Bowl odds for the eight teams who have a chance to win Super Bowl 59 (teams are ordered based on their standing in my Power Rankings):
- San Francisco 49ers: +625
- Kansas City Chiefs: +575
- Baltimore Ravens: +1100
- Cincinnati Bengals: +1500
- Detroit Lions: +1200
- New York Jets: +2000
- Philadelphia Eagles: +1400
- Atlanta Falcons: +3000
In my opinion, the Chiefs are a little too short to bet right now at +575 odds. Though, I will be looking for an opportunity to bet them during the season with hopefully some longer odds.
There are three teams that stand out to me of the eight in terms of value: the Bengals, Lions, and Eagles. However, the Bengals have it very tough in the AFC North, and I’m not even sure I buy into this narrative that Joe Burrow is Patrick Mahomes’ kryptonite. Onto the Eagles, who were the latest proof that coordinators matter. While I think they have a roster loaded with talent, I’m not sure Kellen Moore can elevate Jalen Hurts’ play the way Shane Steichen did.
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This leaves me with who I believe is the best value of the eight teams with a shot at winning Super Bowl 59: the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell’s squad was one bad half of football away from playing in Super Bowl 58. They return the majority of their core from last year, and significantly improved their biggest weakness, which was their secondary, by drafting Terrion Arnold in the first round and acquiring Carlton Davis from the Bucs. This is a team who is going to win the battle in the trenches nearly every week and have some serious weapons at skill positions – don’t be surprised if Detroit brings in one of the WRs who finds themselves as a surprise cut today as well.
Though my Super Bowl prediction is that the Chiefs three-peat, I think the Lions will be the last team standing in their way, and I’ll gladly head into the game with a +1200 ticket on the Lions to win.
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
As Super Bowl 59 approaches, football fans and analysts alike are eagerly making their predictions on which team will come out on top. A recent analysis of the past six years of Super Bowl winners reveals an interesting trend – only eight teams have a realistic chance of winning the championship.
The analysis looked at the winners of the past six Super Bowls – the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos, and Seattle Seahawks. These teams have dominated the NFL in recent years, with each team winning at least one Super Bowl in the past six years.
This trend suggests that there is a small group of elite teams that consistently perform well and have a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl. While there are 32 teams in the NFL, only a handful of them have been able to consistently compete at the highest level and win championships.
The analysis also revealed that factors such as quarterback play, coaching, and overall team talent are key indicators of a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl. Teams with elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson have a significant advantage over teams with less experienced or talented quarterbacks.
In addition, teams with strong coaching staffs and well-rounded rosters tend to perform better in the playoffs and have a better chance of making it to the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots, for example, have been a perennial contender in the playoffs due to their strong coaching and disciplined play.
As we look ahead to Super Bowl 59, it will be interesting to see if this trend continues and if one of the eight elite teams will come out on top once again. While anything can happen in the NFL, history suggests that only a select few teams have a realistic chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.