- The Red Sox and Orioles play the rubbermatch of a three-game set at Camden Yards this afternoon
- Boston took a 3-0 shutout victory last night, holding the O’s to just four hits
- See the Red Sox vs Orioles odds, picks, and predictions for Thursday, April 3
The Boston Red Sox (2-4, 2-4 away) and Baltimore Orioles (3-3, 1-1 home) meet in the finale of their three-game series at Camden Yards on Thursday at 1:05 pm ET. Tanner Houck starts for Boston opposite 41-year-old Charlie Morton for the O’s. Though Morton was hammered in his first appearance of the season, Baltimore is a slight favorite in Thursday’s MLB odds.
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds
Baltimore is priced as a slight -120 moneyline favorite, amounting to a 54.55% implied win probability. The Red Sox come back at +102 (a 49.50% implied win probability). On the runline, Boston is +155 to win by multiple runs while the Or’s are -188 to keep the score within a run. The run total has been set at 9.5 with the under slightly favored at -120.
Odds as of April 3 at FanDuel. Lock in this week’s FanDuel promo code.
The O’s finished ten games above the Red Sox in the standings last season but Baltimore’s record at Camden (44-37) was only one better than Boston’s surprisingly good road record (43-38). The O’s won four of seven at home against Boston last year.
BOS vs BAL Starting Pitchers
Neither pitcher had the start to the season he was hoping for. Houck, coming off his first career All-Star selection, was roughed up for four runs on seven hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a 4-1 loss to Texas on March 28. He managed just two Ks. He was barrelled up on 15.8% of batted balls, despite his velocity ticking up from last season (94.9 mph vs 93.8 in 2024). His xERA from his first start (8.56) was actually considerably higher than his actual and still-awful ERA of 6.35.
Houck’s FIP (8.30) and xFIP (6.02) from his first start were also very concerning.
On the surface, Morton was as bad (actually worse) against Toronto in his first start of the year. He lasted just 3.1 innings while allowing four runs on seven hits and a walk with three Ks. But his peripherals were much more encouraging; he had a FIP of just 1.93 and xFIP of 3.40. He actually got through the first three innings unscatched before running into trouble in the fourth and getting the hook.
Houck has very middling numbers against the Oriole lineup. He’s surrendered a .274 batting average over 73 total at-bats but just a .695 OPS and two home runs (Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn).
Morton has excellent numbers against the seven players in the Boston lineup he’s faced. He held them to a .225 average and .591 OPS with just one homer (Jarren Duran) in 71 at-bats.
Houck as a strikeout prop of just 4.5 in today’s MLB player props with the under favored at -136. Morton is one higher at 5.5 and the over the slight chalk (-118).
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction & Picks
I expect both pitchers to fare better in their second outing of the season this afternoon, but – despite Houck coming off an All-Star-calibre season in 2024 – I have more confidence in the veteran Morton rebounding. I’m not terribly concerned with the fact that he’s now on the wrong side of 40. His velo is about the same as it was last year (94.3 vs 94.2 mph) and his spin rate is up on four of his five pitches.
The 28-year-old Houck only has four full seasons under his belt. He needs to keep the ball on the ground to be successful because, even at the best of times, he doesn’t have great swing-and-miss stuff. He wasn’t able to do that against Texas (42.1% groundball rate compared to 55.9% in 2024) and I’m worried he’s still going to be a bit behind where he’d like to be this early in the season.
Even with last night’s shutout factored in, Baltimore is still averaging 5.33 runs per game through its first six contests, scoring eight or more runs in three of those six. They won’t be silenced for a second straight game.
BOS vs BAL Picks:
- Orioles moneyline (-120) at FanDuel – 2.4 units
- Houck under 4.5 Ks (-136) at FanDuel – 1.36 units
Sascha Paruk’s 2025 MLB betting record: 9-12 (-4.48 units)
The Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles are set to face off in an exciting matchup that has fans on the edge of their seats. Both teams have had their fair share of ups and downs this season, but they are both hungry for a win in this crucial game.
The Red Sox currently sit atop the American League East standings with a record of 65-45, while the Orioles are at the bottom of the division with a record of 38-71. Despite their differing records, both teams have talented rosters that are capable of putting up a fight.
In terms of odds, the Red Sox are heavy favorites to win this game. They have a strong lineup that includes stars like Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez, who have been producing at a high level all season. On the other hand, the Orioles have struggled to find consistency on both offense and defense, which has led to their poor record.
As for starting pitchers, the Red Sox will send ace Chris Sale to the mound. Sale has been dominant this season, posting a 10-4 record with a 2.65 ERA. He will be looking to shut down the Orioles’ lineup and give his team a chance to win.
The Orioles will counter with John Means, who has been one of the lone bright spots for the team this season. Means has a 5-3 record with a 2.84 ERA and has shown the ability to keep his team in games.
In terms of predictions, it is likely that the Red Sox will come out on top in this matchup. They have the better overall team and Sale has been pitching at an elite level. However, baseball is a game of unpredictability, so anything can happen on any given day.
Overall, this matchup between the Red Sox and Orioles is sure to be an exciting one. Both teams will be looking to come out on top and secure a much-needed win. Fans can expect a competitive game with plenty of action on both sides of the ball.
