Analysis of Purdue vs Houston Matchup: Picks, Odds, and Best Bets for the Sweet 16 Game

• The 4th-seeded Purdue Boilermakers are 8.5-point underdogs vs the top-seeded Houston Cougars in Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament play
• Houston comes in as a robust favorite after coming up just short against the spread versus Gonzaga
• See the Purdue vs Houston picks, odds, and best bets for March 28

The 4th-seeded Purdue Boilermakers (26-11, 19-16-0 ATS) try to continue their run against one of the best teams in college basketball on Friday night. We’re going to see if their run of hitting perimeter shots can continue at the NCAA Tournament. Purgue grapples with the #1 Houston Cougars (32-4, 19-17-0 ATS). Houston the Big 12 Champions, were taken to task by the Gonzaga Bulldogs but pulled through in the final moments.

This matchup in the Midwest Region tips off on Friday at 10:09pm ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana with TBS/truTV providing the broadcast coverage. Check out the Purdue vs Houston odds, picks plus my best bets.

Purdue vs Houston Odds

The Boilermakers enter as a 8.5-point underdog in the college basketball odds, and now +295 on the moneyline. The total drops in at 132.5 points.

Odds as of March 26 at DraftKings. Go take a look at SBD’s guide to the March Madness betting strategy. 

Purdue faced a 12 and a 13 seed on the way to the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers took care of business in defeating High Point and McNeese State. Purdue had gone 3-6 in their previous nine games before the NCAA Tournament. Now, they have a chance to advance to the Elite Eight if Purdue can find a way to upset Houston.  

Their overall numbers were solid but Purdue jumped out to an 18-point lead at halftime. Yes, the Boilermakers cruised a little during the second half. One cannot play 20 or 30 minutes against a team like Houston.

Houston enjoyed an easy Round 1 “scrimmage” essentially but were challenged by Gonzaga. It was a game that came down to one possession late but the Cougars found a way to fend off the Bulldogs. The 81-76 win resulted in Houston not covering by the slimmest of margins (1/2 point).

The Houston Cougars allowed Gonzaga to shoot 50% from the field. It is something which does not occur often. That allowed the Bulldogs to claw back into the game after a far more defensive first half. Houston did mostly keep pace and shot 50% from beyond the arc. Can Purdue offer the same kind of resistance?

Purdue vs Houston Public Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits are tilting toward Houston. Now, the spread comes in with 58% of the bets and 67% of the money have the Cougars covering. However, Houston garners 94% of the bets, 90% of the money on the moneyline bet. 

Things get interesting with the game total.

The game-total betting keeps slamming the Over: 91% of the bets and 92% of the money is on the two teams going over the total of 132.5.

Purdue vs Houston Best Bets

Did Houston learn anything from playing Gonzaga? Can Purdue up the intensity?

The Boilermakers offense has been right around its season average. However, what are the chances Houston allows close to 20 points above their national leading average of 58.4 points per game?

Purdue does have some plus players and especially one big chip in Trey Kaufman-Renn. Many forget about Braden Smith who averages 8.5 assists per game along with 16+ points a contest.  

Bluntly, the Houston defense led by LJ Cryer and J’Wan Roberts, must get back to contesting more shots. The Cougars got caught running around too often versus the pace of the Gonzaga offensive flow.

Nonetheless, Houston found a way to get to the Sweet 16.

Now, what can Houston do next? The over may be a not so fast my friend to borrow from the great Lee Corso.

Anyway, this boils down to how the Cougars play. Houston does not turn the ball over often (9 per game), they shoot almost 40% from three-point range, and attempt eight more shots a game. This all points to a few conclusions.

I like to again see some points here. Houston has scored 70+ points in five straight games. Purdue, after all, allowed 86 to Michigan and 88 to Illinois in the past few weeks. 

The public wants to hammer that game over but how about a team over first? Take Houston to score more than 70.5 points on Friday night at -110.

Simply March Madness is fun. If one feels inclined, go a few points higher at 72.5 as the number jumps to +124. Also, take the Cougars to seal the cover this time.

• Purdue vs Houston Best Bet 1: Houston Over 70.5 points (-110)
• Purdue vs Houston Best Bet 2: Houston -8.5 points (-102)

Purdue vs Houston Player Props

Purdue vs Houston player props from bet365 on Mar 26. Claim the current bet365 bonus code to get some help for Friday’s Sweet 16 slate.

Our player prop six pack serves up the headliners for what promises to be a solid Sweet 16 chess match. Can Matt Painter deploy a strategy which frustrates Houston like Mark Few did late? Does LJ Cryer continue to have the hot hand? Cryer connected for 30 points against Gonzaga. Some numbers got dangled by the sportsbooks here.

Can Cryer pump up the points on Friday night again?

For the Cougars, Cryer has been streaky this season and the key may be for him to slash more to the hoop to set up his shot attempts. His shot volume has been in the double digits for eight straight games. Take the over and maybe the 20+ point prop as well.

Purdue typically does not play the most stout defensively. If Houston shoots well enough, J’Wan Roberts will be worth a look when the Cougars attack. His ability to pass the ball is underrated along with his work on the glass. That 10.5 point total is low here and one I am taking another light wager on.

The Sweet 16 matchup between Purdue and Houston is shaping up to be an exciting and closely contested game. Both teams have had impressive runs in the NCAA tournament so far, with Purdue knocking off Villanova and Texas Tech, while Houston has defeated UAB and Illinois to reach this stage.

When it comes to the odds, Purdue is currently a slight favorite over Houston, with most sportsbooks giving the Boilermakers a slight edge. However, this game is expected to be a close one, with both teams having strong defenses and potent offenses.

One key factor to watch in this matchup will be the battle in the paint. Purdue boasts one of the best big men in the country in Trevion Williams, who has been dominant in the tournament so far. Houston, on the other hand, has a strong frontcourt led by Justin Gorham, who has been a force on the boards.

In terms of picks and best bets for this game, it’s a tough call given how evenly matched these two teams are. However, Purdue’s experience and depth could give them the edge in this matchup. Look for them to try and establish their inside presence early and often, while also relying on their outside shooting to keep Houston’s defense honest.

As for the over/under, this game could be a low-scoring affair given both teams’ defensive prowess. The under might be a safe bet in this matchup, as points could be hard to come by for both teams.

Overall, this Sweet 16 matchup between Purdue and Houston is sure to be a thrilling game that could go down to the wire. Keep an eye on the battle in the paint and which team can establish their offensive rhythm early on. And when it comes to making your picks and bets, consider the strengths and weaknesses of each team before placing your wager.