- Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul goes down Friday, November 15th in Arlington, Texas and will be streamed live on Netflix
- BetMGM has released betting splits data showing which fighter is getting the money
- See the full Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul betting splits, plus our complete breakdown below
Boxing legend Mike Tyson returns to the ring Friday night at AT&T Stadium, facing social media sensation Jake Paul in an 8-round sanctioned bout. The Netflix-streamed event features modified rules to account for the 31-year age gap between the 58-year-old former heavyweight champion and the 27-year-old Paul.
While Tyson opened as a sizable underdog, the betting public has heavily backed ‘Iron Mike’ heading into fight night. According to BetMGM’s betting splits data, there’s a disparity between where the public and sharp money is landing
Let’s dive into the Tyson vs Paul betting splits from BetMGM and analyze what it means for Friday’s mega-fight.
Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul Betting Splits
| Fighter | Current Odds | Opening Odds | % Bets | % Handle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Paul | -175 | -275 | 15% | 41% |
| Mike Tyson | +180 | +275 | 69% | 54% |
| Tie | +900 | +900 | 16% | 5% |
According to BetMGM, a staggering 69% of total bets have come in on Tyson to defeat Paul. However, ‘The Problem Child’ is receiving 41% of the total money wagered despite only 15% of bets. This discrepancy between bet percentage and handle percentage indicates that the larger, likely sharper, wagers are backing Paul.
The Tyson vs Paul odds have seen significant movement since opening. Tyson shortened from +275 to as low as +160 amid a flood of public money, but his odds have since drifted back to +180. Paul opened at -275, lengthened to around -200, but has recently shortened to -175.
Tyson vs Paul betting splits provided by BetMGM Sportsbook on November 15th, 2024.
Public Rooting for a Mike Tyson Victory
The betting public is heavily backing Mike Tyson to turn back the clock and score a momentous win over Jake Paul on Friday. Despite being 31 years Paul’s senior and having not fought professionally since 2005, the public sentiment remains strongly with ‘Iron Mike.’
Tyson’s highlight reel knockouts and dominant heavyweight reign still resonate with fans, many of whom will be rooting for him to silence the brash Paul. The former champ has also looked sharp and powerful in training footage at age 58.
While the public heavily favors Tyson, Paul’s support comes primarily from big money players. The fact that Paul’s odds have shortened recently despite the lopsided bet count suggests that the sharps see value in the YouTuber-turned-boxer’s speed and youth advantages.
The modified fight rules, including larger 14-ounce gloves and shorter 2-minute rounds, also seem to favor Paul. The bigger gloves decrease Tyson’s vaunted knockout power, while the reduced round length limits his time to land that fight-ending shot.
Odds Movement & Implied Probability
The Tyson vs Paul odds have fluctuated significantly in both directions leading up to fight night. Tyson initially opened as high as a +275 underdog, but a surge of public money drove his odds down to as low as +160 at some sportsbooks. However, in the days before the fight, the odds have settled with Paul as a -175 favorite.
At BetMGM, Paul currently sits at -175, having shortened from a low of around -200 after opening at -275. Tyson’s odds have settled at +180 after reaching +160.
The initial rush of money on Tyson caused the oddsmakers to adjust his chances of winning upward. However, the recent reverse line movement towards Paul suggests that the sharps and larger wagers are fading the public underdog and backing the younger favorite.
JAKE PAUL HAS ENTERED THE BUILDING. #PaulTyson pic.twitter.com/1aUFESfq31
— Netflix (@netflix) November 16, 2024
Despite the back-and-forth odds movement, Paul maintains a clear edge in implied probability. His -175 odds translate to about a 64% chance of victory, while Tyson’s +180 price equates to a 36% win probability.
The volatile betting market illustrates the bookies’ challenges in handicapping a fight with so many unknowns. The public sentiment and betting patterns have caused the odds to yo-yo, but the implied probabilities still heavily favor Paul.
Should You Bet on Mike Tyson as an Underdog?
While taking a flyer on a boxing legend like Mike Tyson at plus-money is undoubtedly tempting, it likely falls into the “square” or public play category. The sharps seem to have identified Paul as the value side, despite his odds drifting higher.
At 27-years-old, Paul holds massive youth and activity edges over Tyson. He turned pro in 2020 and has boxed 11 times in the last four years. Paul has displayed slick boxing skills and fight-changing power against ex-MMA fighters and actual boxers.
In contrast, the 58-year-old Tyson last fought professionally in 2005, a TKO loss to Kevin McBride. Though he looked powerful in a 2020 exhibition with Roy Jones Jr., his stamina and punch resistance remain huge question marks after years of inactivity.
The sportsbooks are also incentivized to avoid a massive liability on a Tyson upset. If Tyson shocks the world, the betting public that hammered him at plus-money will get paid handsomely.
In a fight this unique with so many unknowns, there’s merit to simply watching it play out. But if you do bet, protecting yourself on the Paul side is advisable. ‘The Problem Child’ is favored for good reason – his youth, technique and activity should carry him to a decision win if he can avoid Tyson’s early onslaught.
The highly anticipated matchup between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson has generated a lot of buzz among fans and bettors alike. As the fight date approaches, public betting trends have started to emerge, giving us a glimpse into where the majority of bettors are placing their money.
One of the key factors influencing public betting trends in this matchup is the star power of both fighters. Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned professional boxer, has quickly risen to fame in the boxing world with his impressive performances and trash-talking antics. On the other hand, Mike Tyson, a former heavyweight champion and boxing legend, needs no introduction. His name alone carries a lot of weight in the boxing community.
Another factor driving public betting trends is the perceived skill level of each fighter. While Jake Paul has shown improvement in his boxing skills and has a perfect professional record, many still question his ability to compete at the highest level. On the other hand, Mike Tyson is a seasoned veteran with years of experience in the ring, making him a formidable opponent for any fighter.
In terms of betting odds, early lines have favored Mike Tyson as the favorite in this matchup. This is likely due to his experience and reputation as a dominant force in the boxing world. However, as the fight date approaches, we may see these odds shift as more bets are placed on either fighter.
It’s important to note that public betting trends are just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to predicting the outcome of a fight. While they can give us some insight into where the majority of bettors are placing their money, they should not be the sole basis for making a betting decision.
In conclusion, the analysis of public betting trends in the Paul vs Tyson matchup provides us with valuable information on how fans and bettors are viewing this fight. As the fight date approaches, it will be interesting to see how these trends evolve and whether they accurately predict the outcome of the matchup.
