Analysis of Odds, Pick, and Prediction for New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football (Oct. 7)

• Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite in the Saints vs Chiefs odds for Monday Night Football
• Patrick Mahomes is averaging a career-low 5.1 air yards per attempt
• Check out the Saints vs Chiefs odds, pick and prediction for MNF, below

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It’s hard to believe the Kansas City Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 given the discourse in the media. Their skill position group has been depleted by injury, the offense has been pedestrian, and Patrick Mahomes is on pace for the worst statistical season of his career.

Yet somehow, they’re still undefeated and online sportsbooks don’t expect that to change on Monday Night Football. They’re sizeable favorites over the Saints in the latest NFL odds, as they chase their 11th straight win dating back to last season.

Saints vs Chiefs Odds

KC is currently favored by 5.5 points, although it’s up to -6 at some books. The total has fluctuated all week, but as of Sunday it sits at 43.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MI, with ESPN providing the coverage.

Odds as of October 6 at BetMGM. Be sure to check out the best BetMGM promo code before placing a bet on Monday Night Football.

Mahomes Lacking Magic This Season

For what it’s worth, oddsmakers don’t believe there’s much wrong with the Chiefs. They’re the favorites in the Super Bowl 59 odds, and Mahomes is still the man at the top of the NFL MVP odds. Whether Mahomes should be favored in that market however, is certainly open for discussion.

Let’s start with the good. He’s led the depleted Chiefs to four victories over quality opponents. Mahomes is still the most talented quarterback on the planet, and the one player 99% of the world would chose if they needed a QB to lead a game-winning drive in the dying seconds.

His statistics on the other hand, tell a different story. Mahomes is averaging the lowest air yards per attempt of his career (5.1). He’s also throwing deep at the lowest rate of his NFL tenure, and his completion percentage under pressure is the second worst mark he’s ever produced (35.7%). He’s Pro Football Focus’ 17th graded passer, and he’s being outproduced by Justin Fields of all people.

Is Justin Fields having a better season than Patrick Mahomes? 😳 pic.twitter.com/NkcyafYPDP

— FanDuel (@FanDuel) October 2, 2024

Luckily for Mahomes and KC fans, the Chiefs defense has exceeded all expectations so far. That unit is 7th in points allowed and defensive red zone efficiency, and 11th in touchdowns surrendered per drive. Chris Jones is leading a pass rush that ranks sixth in pressure rate, while KC is also a top-nine graded rush defense.

When the Saints Come Marching In

They say defense wins championships and that might be the Chiefs avenue to a three-peat this season. As good as KC has been defensively, New Orleans has been even better. No team is allowing fewer touchdowns per drive than the Saints. They’re third in takeaways, sixth in defensive success rate and seventh in expected points added per play when removing garbage time.

New Orleans’ offense stole the NFL headlines through two weeks when they put up 40+ points twice. Since then, offensive success have been tough to come by. The Eagles held them to 12 points in Week 3, while the Falcons kept them to 22 points last Sunday.

Philly’s game plan will be one the Chiefs try to mimic. They generated a ton of pressure up the middle, taking advantage of a weak Saints interior. Like most quarterbacks, Derek Carr turns into a pumpkin under pressure and this season is no exception. In a clean pocket, Carr is PFF’s highest graded QB completing 82% of his throws. Under pressure however, his completion percentage craters to 46.4%.

Saints vs Chiefs Prediction

With elite defenses facing off, this game is going to struggle to generate points barring a flurry of turnovers that lead to short fields. That brings under 43.5 into play as our first wager, followed right behind by Saints +5.5 (or preferably +6 if you can find it).

Chiefs Margin of Victory – Last 7 Games

KC is 4-0 in one possession games this season. Each of their last seven victories during this current winning streak have been by 7 points or less. Mahomes is 8-0 in his last eight one-score games, and he’s missing most of his favorite weapons. It all adds up to one thing, which is that regression is coming. There’s too much parity in the NFL for a run like this to continue, and the Saints match up well enough to cover this number and potentially pull off the upset.

Saints vs Chiefs Picks:

• Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM
• New Orleans Saints +5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

The highly anticipated matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football on October 7th is sure to be a thrilling game for football fans. Both teams have had strong starts to the season, making this game a must-watch for any NFL enthusiast.

When analyzing the odds for this game, the Chiefs are currently favored to win with a spread of -3.5 points. This means that the Chiefs are expected to win by at least 4 points in order for bettors to cash in on their wagers. The over/under for the game is set at 53.5 points, indicating that oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair between these two high-powered offenses.

In terms of picking a winner for this game, it’s important to consider the strengths and weaknesses of each team. The Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses in the league led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has already thrown for over 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. The Saints, on the other hand, have a solid defense and an offense led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees.

One key factor to consider in this game is the health of Saints star wide receiver Michael Thomas, who has been dealing with an ankle injury. If Thomas is unable to play, it could significantly impact the Saints’ ability to move the ball down the field and score points.

In terms of a prediction for this game, it’s likely to be a close and high-scoring affair. Both teams have potent offenses and solid defenses, making it a tough matchup to call. However, with the Chiefs playing at home and having the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Mahomes leading their offense, they have a slight edge in this matchup.

Ultimately, this game has all the makings of a classic Monday Night Football showdown between two of the top teams in the league. Fans can expect a thrilling game with plenty of scoring and excitement as these two powerhouse teams battle it out on the gridiron.