Analysis of NFL Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions as Wild Card Round Approaches

• Who is the Super Bowl MVP favorite entering Wild Card Weekend?
• The latest NFL Super Bowl MVP odds favor Patrick Mahomes of KC
• Read below for the 2025 Super Bowl MVP odds, predictions and longshots picks

With the 2025 NFL playoffs kicking off, it’s time to take a look at the odds for who will win Super Bowl 59 MVP. Chiefs veteran pivot Patrick Mahomes leads the pack, but there are plenty of intriguing options as 14 teams battle to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans on February 9th.

Let’s dive into the opening odds and break down some of the top contenders and sleeper picks to take home the hardware as Super Bowl MVP.

Super Bowl 59 MVP Odds & Favorites

Odds current as of Jan. 11, 2025, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Browse the top Super Bowl betting sites for wagering on the MVP.

Mahomes Favored Over Allen, Jackson

At +400 odds, Patrick Mahomes is the clear favorite to win his fourth Super Bowl MVP. It’s not hard to see why—he led the Chiefs to an NFL-best 15-2 record, and has already proven himself on the biggest stage.

Trying to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC will be the Josh Allen-led Bills (+650) and Lamar Jackson’s Ravens (+700). Allen is looking to cap off an MVP-caliber season by breaking through to his first Super Bowl. His rocket arm and mobility make him a threat to post monster numbers on the biggest stage.

The boys are hungry. @NorthtownAuto | #BillsMafia

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 10, 2025

Jackson lit it up in his first full season back from a knee injury, tying for first in the NFL in total touchdowns (45). The former MVP’s unique skill set always gives Baltimore a puncher’s chance, although I have major concerns about the Ravens’ 31st-ranked passing defense.

In the NFC, Lions QB Jared Goff (+550) headlines a wide-open field. Goff led the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (33.2 PPG) and was outstanding down the stretch with 12 TDs and 2 INTs over the final four weeks. He’s surrounded by explosive weapons in RB Jahmyr Gibbs and WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

If the Lions stumble, the Eagles have the inside track to represent the NFC behind dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts (+1500) and workhorse RB Saquon Barkley (+1700). Hurts’ numbers don’t jump off the page, but his leadership and clutch play powered Philly to the #2 seed.

Longshot Super Bowl MVP Picks

Could a Non-QB Win Award?

Quarterbacks have won 7 of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs, but there’s still value in targeting elite playmakers at other positions—especially at juicy odds.

David Montgomery (+6600) is one to watch if the Lions lean on their run game. He’s been a red-zone monster this season, scoring 12 touchdowns. His hard-nosed running style reminds me of Larry Csonka, who won Super Bowl MVP back in 1974.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (+6600) just set the record for the most receiving yards by an NFL player in his first five seasons. His game-breaking potential makes him an MVP threat any time he steps on the field. Same goes for Eagles WR A.J. Brown (+4000), whose size, speed, and contested-catch skills are tailor-made for a signature Super Bowl moment.

Looking for a real bomb? How about Chiefs rookie WR Xavier Worthy at 80/1. The speedster showed flashes down the stretch and has the wheels to pop the top off a defense for a long TD on the fast track in New Orleans.

Best Value Super Bowl MVP Pick

While Patrick Mahomes is a deserving favorite, I see better value with Ravens bulldozer RB Derrick Henry at +3000. The Ravens RB was unstoppable this season, racking up 1,921 rushing yards and 2,114 scrimmage yards.

Ravens RB Derrick Henry has fond memories from his last NFL playoff win 😅 pic.twitter.com/L06DHBGP84

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 11, 2025

Baltimore’s playoff hopes rest on Henry’s shoulders, and he’s proven he can take over games in January. He’s averaged a jaw-dropping 164 rushing yards per game in the playoffs during his career. He’s the engine that drives Baltimore’s offense, and the Ravens will need him to control the clock if they want to keep guys like Mahomes and Allen off the field.

If the Ravens make a deep run, Henry could become the first RB to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis (1998). At +3000 odds, he’s worth a bet.

Super Bowl 59 MVP Prediction: Josh Allen (+650)

When the confetti is falling at Caesars Superdome on February 9th, I predict it will be Bills QB Josh Allen hoisting both the Lombardi Trophy and Super Bowl MVP award for the first time.

Allen has been playing like a man on a mission. This season, he threw for 3,371 yards, ran for 531 yards, and accounted for 40 total TDs. He’s also cleaned up his turnovers, throwing just six picks all year.

More importantly, Allen has already proven he can come through in the clutch. He’s beaten the Ravens and Chiefs in big playoff games before. Not to mention, he was one of only two teams to take down this Chiefs powerhouse during the regular season.

Josh Allen on his game-sealing 26-yard touchdown run against the Chiefs: “Just made a play… anytime you give the ball back to Pat and that offense down six.. wanted to get 7 to make it a two score game… I’m going to do whatever I can to help this team win.” #Bills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/xHf5cJ9KOl

— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) November 18, 2024

With Mahomes showing some vulnerabilities down the stretch and the Bills healthier than they’ve been in years, this feels like the year Allen finally breaks through.

No. 17’s rocket arm, underrated wheels (531 rush yards, 12 TDs in 2024) and crunch-time poise are the perfect ingredients for a signature Super Bowl performance. Look for Allen to total 300+ yards and account for 3+ TDs as Buffalo hoists its first Lombardi Trophy, and Allen adds a SB MVP to his regular-season MVP award.

Everything appears to be coming together for an awesome playoff run by one of the game’s most exciting young players. Back Josh Allen at +650 odds to shine on Super Sunday and earn Super Bowl 59 MVP honors.

• Super Bowl MVP Pick: Josh Allen (+650)

As the NFL Wild Card Round approaches, football fans and analysts alike are eagerly anticipating the upcoming games and speculating on who will come out on top as the Super Bowl MVP. With several standout players and teams in contention, the odds and predictions for this prestigious award are constantly evolving.

One player who has been garnering a lot of attention in the MVP race is Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. The young quarterback has been putting up impressive numbers all season, leading his team to a 12-4 record and securing the top seed in the AFC. Mahomes is known for his strong arm, quick decision-making, and ability to make big plays in clutch moments, making him a top contender for the MVP title.

Another player to keep an eye on is Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers. The veteran quarterback has been having a stellar season, throwing for over 4,000 yards and leading his team to a 13-3 record and the top seed in the NFC. Rodgers is known for his accuracy, football IQ, and leadership on the field, making him a strong candidate for the MVP award.

Other players who could potentially make a run for the Super Bowl MVP include Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, and Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Henry has been a force to be reckoned with in the running game, leading the league in rushing yards and touchdowns. Allen has been a breakout star this season, leading the Bills to their first division title in 25 years. And Brady, a six-time Super Bowl champion, has been showing no signs of slowing down in his first season with the Buccaneers.

As the Wild Card Round approaches, it will be interesting to see how these players perform under pressure and how their performances impact their MVP odds. With so much talent and competition in the league this year, it’s anyone’s guess who will ultimately take home the Super Bowl MVP award. Football fans will have to tune in to the upcoming games to see which player rises to the occasion and solidifies their place as the most valuable player on the biggest stage in football.