Analysis of Michigan vs Wisconsin Matchup in 2025 Big Ten Tournament Final: Picks, Predictions, and Player Props

• The Wisconsin Badgers are 3.5-point favorites over the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament final on March 16
• Michigan won the only regular-season meeting, but was a razor-thin three-point victory
• Below, see my Michigan vs Wisconsin predictions, picks, and player props for Sunday’s title game

The Michigan Wolverines (23-9, 14-6 Big Ten, 15-18 ATS) and Wisconsin Badgers (26-8, 13-7 Big Ten, 21-12 ATS) meet in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament final on Sunday at 3:30 pm ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game will be broadcast by CBS. The Wisconsin vs Michigan odds opened with the Badgers as 2.5-point favorites and that line has grown to 3.5 overnight.

Michigan vs Wisconsin Prediction

• Wisconsin moneyline (-166) at FanDuel

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 51-38 (+9.07 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

When the opening MICH/WISC spread was posted last night, I said that I like the Badgers at -2.5 (-110). Now they’re -3.5 (-115) at most books, which isn’t a massive difference but it’s significant enough that I’m changing my focus to the Wisconsin moneyline. The opening ML at DraftKings had the Badgers at -155 to win (60.78% implied win probability). Their moneyline is as short as -180 at most sportsbooks in Sunday’s college basketball odds, but it’s still a reasonable -166 at FanDuel (62.41% implied win probability).

Personally, I can stomach a small increase in ML juice more than laying an extra point in what shapes up as a close game. KenPom projects a four-point Wisconsin win (78-74) while Torvik projects a three-point Badger victory (77-74).

My rationale this morning remains the same as yesterday. The Badgers should have a distinct edge in the backcourt: 6’5 guard John Tonje (19.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.8 APG) is head-and-shoulders above anything the Michigan backcourt has to offer, and his running mate, 6’4 John Blackwell (15.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.2 APG), has the potential to take over games, as well.

Michigan’s strength is in the front court with its two seven-footers, Vladislav Goldin (16.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.2 APG) and Danny Wolf (13.3 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 3.8 APG). They are the Wolverines’ two leading scorers on the season, and one of the two has led Michigan in scoring in 11 of the last 12 games.

At the end of the day, I see the Wisconsin frontcourt being able to matchup better with Goldin and Wolf than the Michigan backcourt does with Tonje and Blackwell. Seven-foot Steven Crowl and 6’11 Nolan Winter make Wisconsin one of the few teams in the nation that can matchup with Michigan’s frontcourt size. They’re not the offensive forces that Goldin and Wolf are, but Wisconsin doesn’t need them to be. Greg Gard just needs them to contest shots in the post and box out on rebounds.

They weren’t able to do so in the first meeting in Ann Arbor; Goldin had 24 points 9-of-15 shooting, while Wolf added 20 on 5-of-7 shooting. But the Badger big men were generally much better than that this season. Wisconsin rates 46th out of 364DI teams in defensive rebound percentage (73.1%) and 39th in two-point field-goal defense (47.0%).

Michigan went 7-4 in true-road games this season, and is 4-2 SU in neutral-site games after beating Purdue (86-68 as 2.5-point underdogs) and Maryland (81-80 as 4.5-point underdogs) in the Big Ten quarters and semis, respectively. Wisconsin went just 6-5 in true-road games but is 6-0 in neutral-site games and 5-1 ATS.

Wisconsin’s guard play leads to its first Big Ten Tournament title since 2015, when the Frank Kaminsky-led Badgers beat Michigan State in OT.

MICH vs WISC Player Props

Michigan vs Wisconsin player props as of 10:24 am ET at bet365. See SBD’s list of the top betting promotions available on Sunday.

The player of the tournament so far, John Tonje () leads the point totals on Sunday at 21.5. He’s followed by Michigan’s twin seven-footers, Vladislav Goldin () and Danny Wolf () at 15.5 O/U.

Those two also lead the rebound totals with Wolf at 9.5 and Goldin at 7.5.

Michigan vs Wisconsin Picks

• Tonje over 21.5 points (-115)
• Crowl over 5.5 rebounds (-105)

I’m pairing my Wisconsin moneyline pick with two Badger players to go over their point/rebound totals. My first WISC/MICH player-prop pick is Tonje to go over his inflated total of 21.5. After scoring 18 in an easy 70-63 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten second round, Tonje dominated with 26 against UCLA in the quarters and 32 against Michigan State in the semis.

That was a Spartan defense that sits fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Wolverines are a solid 16th, which is basically on par with the UCLA defense Tonje just torched.

I’m also betting Crowl to go over 5.5 rebounds. He only had four in the first meeting, but he was also limited to just 22 minutes due to foul trouble. As I said above, I’m expecting the second meeting between these two frontcourts to be considerably less lopsided than the first. Crowl grabbed seven boards against Northwestern and eight against Michigan State. He was held to just one against UCLA, again largely because foul trouble limited him to just 20 minutes.

If Crowl can stay on the court, he should eclipse 5.5 boards.

The 2025 Big Ten Tournament Final is set to be an exciting matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and the Wisconsin Badgers. Both teams have had strong seasons leading up to this point, and fans are eagerly anticipating what promises to be a thrilling game.

Michigan comes into the final as the higher seed, having finished the regular season with an impressive record of 27-3. Led by star players such as forward Jalen Smith and guard Isaiah Todd, the Wolverines have shown themselves to be a formidable force on both ends of the court. Their offense is high-powered, averaging over 80 points per game, while their defense is stingy, holding opponents to just 65 points per game.

On the other hand, Wisconsin has had a solid season as well, finishing with a record of 24-6. The Badgers are known for their disciplined play and tough defense, led by forward Micah Potter and guard Johnny Davis. They may not have the flashy scoring numbers of Michigan, but they make up for it with their grit and determination on the court.

When it comes to picking a winner in this matchup, it’s a tough call. Michigan has the edge in terms of offensive firepower, but Wisconsin’s defense could prove to be a tough nut to crack. It may come down to which team can impose their will on the game and dictate the pace of play.

In terms of predictions, it’s likely to be a close game that goes down to the wire. Both teams have shown themselves to be capable of pulling out wins in clutch situations, so fans can expect a nail-biter of a final.

As for player props, keep an eye on Jalen Smith for Michigan. The forward has been a dominant force all season long and could be in line for a big game in the final. On the Wisconsin side, Micah Potter will be key for the Badgers. His ability to score in the paint and crash the boards will be crucial for Wisconsin’s chances of pulling off the upset.

Overall, the Michigan vs Wisconsin matchup in the 2025 Big Ten Tournament Final promises to be a must-watch game for college basketball fans. With both teams boasting talented rosters and strong coaching staffs, it’s sure to be a battle for the ages.