Analysis of Illinois vs Kentucky Matchup: Odds, Picks, Props, and Betting Splits for NCAA Tournament

• The 3rd-seeded Kentucky Wildcats are 1.5-point underdogs vs #6 Illinois in Round of 32 NCAA Tournament play
• Illinois has won five of its last six, while the Wildcats have won four of five
• See the Illinois vs Kentucky odds, player props, and predictions for March 23

A trip to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament is on the line Sunday when the #6 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12, 17-16-1 ATS) clash with the #3 Kentucky Wildcats (23-11, 17-16-1 ATS). This matchup in the Midwest Region tips off on Sunday at 5:15pm ET from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Check below for the Illinois vs Kentucky odds, player props plus my betting prediction.

Illinois vs Kentucky Odds

The lower-seeded Illini enter as slight 1.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, and a short -130 on the moneyline. The total comes in at a high 169.5 points, which might seem a tad high until you see that these schools are both Top 10 in the nation in scoring.

Odds as of March 23 at DraftKings. Read SBD’s guide to the March Madness betting strategy.

Kentucky dispatched Troy 76-57 in their Round 1 matchup, holding the Trojans to 34.9% shooting from the field, including a rough 8-for-32 from 3-point range, just a 25% clip.

Three Wildcats starters hit double-figure scoring, led by Otega Oweh’s 20 points. He also added eight rebounds, six assists and a pair of steals.

Illinois kicked off their March Madness run with a convincing 86-73 win over Xavier. The Big Ten’s highest scoring team shot a healthy 48.3% from the field, and a crisp 12-for-30 from 3-point range, a 40% rate.

Four of five starters posted double-digits, led by Will Riley’s 22 points and four rebounds. Tomislav Ivisic added 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Illinois vs Kentucky Public Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits show the public is backing the blue-blooded Wildcats. Kentucky is getting 58% of the bets for covering the spread, with 45% of the money. In contrast, only 42% of the bets are going on Illinois, but with more money, at 55%.

On the moneyline, a solid 59% of wagers are on UK in the underdog position tkaing 49% of the money. Illinois is taking 51% of the moneyline handle, though just 41% of the bets.

The most lopsided of splits is the game-total, with 69% of the bettors banging the Under, with 72% of the handle.

Illinois vs Kentucky Prediction

There’s a ton of offense coming from both of these programs, with Illinois leading the Big Ten in scoring at 83.9 points per game, though they rank outside the Top 10 in the conference in both shooting from the field and 3-point range.

Kenutcky, meanwhile, rates out as the third highest-scoring team in the SEC at 85 points per contest. The Wildcats’ shooting splits are up there too, ranking second in field goal shooting at 48.2%, while leading the conference in 3-point shooting at 37.4%.

The Wildcats’ weakness this season has been defense, ranking second-last in the SEC in points allowed at 77.3 points per game. Out of the Top 20 teams ranked at KenPom, UK has the second-worst defensive efficiency rating at 54, with only Purdue at 56 rating out worse.

Illinois isn’t a defensive stopper by any means, as they were in the Big Ten’s Bottom 5 in points allowed at 74.6 points per contest, and ranked outside KenPom’s Top 40 in defensive efficiency.

However, there’s a reason the public is hammering the Under here: getting to 170 points in such a high stakes game is a tough number to hit.

Illinois has only combined to top that score eight times in the last 10 games, while Kentucky has only crossed that number three times in their last 10.

It’s likely that the winner of this matchup is the one who wins the battle on the boards. Illinois is the nation’s top rebounding team, pulling down nearly 40 per contest, and they rank inside the Top 20 in offensive rebounding.

Kentucky’s total rebounding numbers aren’t great, ranking out of 223rd in the country, but they are among the best in the NCAA at protecting their own glass, ranking 19th overall in defensive rebounding.

Since that matchup should be a close one too, I’m going with the Under in what should be a great game.

• Illinois vs Kentucky pick: Under 169.5 points (-110)

Illinois vs Kentucky Player Props

Illinois vs Kentucky player props from bet365 on Mar 23. Claim the current bet365 bonus code to get a bonus for Friday’s NCAAM slate.

Otega Oweh has the highest scoring prop for any player in this game at 19.5 points. He’s hit the 20-point plateau in seven of his last 10 outings. Kentucky’s Amari Williams will have his hands full on the glass, a big reason why he holds the highest rebounding prop at 8.5.

Freshman Will Riley has the highest scoring total for the Illini at 17.5, followed closely by Kasparas Jakucionis at 16.5 points. Tomislav Ivisic tops Illinois rebounders with a 7.5 total, with Tre White and Jakucionis both in at 6.5.

The highly anticipated matchup between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Kentucky Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament has fans and bettors buzzing with excitement. Both teams have had impressive seasons and are considered strong contenders in the tournament, making this game a must-watch for college basketball fans.

When it comes to the odds for this matchup, sportsbooks have Illinois listed as slight favorites over Kentucky. The Fighting Illini have been on a hot streak lately, winning 14 of their last 15 games and claiming the Big Ten Tournament title. Led by star guard Ayo Dosunmu and big man Kofi Cockburn, Illinois has proven to be a force to be reckoned with on both ends of the court.

On the other hand, Kentucky has had a bit of an up-and-down season but has shown flashes of brilliance at times. The Wildcats are known for their strong defense and ability to score in transition, making them a tough matchup for any team. With talented players like Brandon Boston Jr. and Isaiah Jackson leading the way, Kentucky has the potential to pull off an upset in this game.

As for picks and props for this matchup, bettors may want to consider taking Illinois to cover the spread or betting on the over in terms of total points scored. Both teams have the offensive firepower to put up big numbers, so a high-scoring game could be in store. Prop bets to keep an eye on include player props for Dosunmu and Cockburn, as well as team props for three-point shooting and rebounding.

When it comes to betting splits, it’s likely that there will be a fairly even split between bettors backing Illinois and those backing Kentucky. Both teams have passionate fan bases and are capable of pulling off a win in this game, so it could go either way in terms of where the money is flowing.

Overall, the Illinois vs Kentucky matchup is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown between two talented teams with a lot on the line. Whether you’re a fan looking to cheer on your favorite team or a bettor looking to make some money, this game is sure to deliver plenty of excitement and drama. Be sure to tune in and see how it all unfolds in what promises to be a memorable NCAA Tournament matchup.