NHL Hockey

Analysis of Game 4: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators – Lineups, Predictions, and Expert Picks

15 hours ago11 mins

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to complete a sweep against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night
Toronto leads the series 3-0, with back-to-back overtime victories in Games 2 and 3
Read below for our Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction with odds and projected lineups

The Ottawa Senators host the Toronto Maple Leafs at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday night in a must-win Game 4 of their Eastern Conference First Round playoff series. The Maple Leafs vs Senators odds have Ottawa as the slight favorite as they fight to avoid elimination.

Toronto (3-0) has a chance to complete their first four-game sweep of a best-of-7 series in 24 years, while Ottawa (0-3) is looking to join the small group of teams that have battled back from a 3-0 deficit. The margins have been razor-thin with back-to-back overtime finishes. Our Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction considers the desperation factor for the home team.

The action gets underway at 7:00 pm ET, with broadcast coverage on TBS/truTV and Sportsnet.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Prediction

The biggest consideration for a Maple Leafs vs Senators prediction is the historical context of teams facing elimination. Teams down 0-3 in a playoff series have gone 90-67 in Game 4 since the 2005-06 season. More specifically, home teams facing a potential sweep have compiled an impressive 24-7 record since 2021.

Ottawa’s performance in the series has been better than the 0-3 deficit suggests. The Senators have actually been the superior team at 5-on-5 play by expected goals metrics, but Toronto’s power play has been the difference-maker. The Leafs have converted 5 of 9 power-play opportunities, operating at a remarkable 55.5% success rate.

The Senators have been particularly strong at home this season, compiling a 27-15 record at Canadian Tire Centre. Even more impressive is their 11-2 mark when playing at home on Saturdays, so they should have an edge in this specific scheduling spot.

After a shaky performance in Game 1, Senators goaltender Linus Ullmark has improved in Games 2 and 3, though his overall .815 save percentage in the series remains problematic. He’ll need to outperform Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz, who has been outstanding with a .926 save percentage through three games.

Anthony Stolarz vs Linus Ullmark Playoff Stats

Ottawa’s captain Brady Tkachuk has really stepped up in the series, scoring two goals. Claude Giroux has also been solid, adding a goal and two assists. The Senators will need them to keep bringing their A-game. They’re also definitely looking for more from Tim Stutzle, who’s only got one assist even though he was the team’s top scorer in the regular season.

The betting action has been pretty interesting lately, with some serious cash coming in on the Senators, even though most fans are putting their money on the Maple Leafs. The line moving from -118 to -130 shows that the pros think there’s a good chance Ottawa could keep the series going.

Additionally, there’s the pride factor of avoiding a sweep by a provincial rival on home ice. The emotional stakes couldn’t be higher for Ottawa, which should translate to their most desperate and complete effort of the series.

Pick:

Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds

Here are the latest Maple Leafs vs Senators odds from Caesars Sportsbook:

Odds as of April 26, 2025 at 10:04 am ET at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Senators are listed as -130 home favorites on the moneyline. A $130 bet on Ottawa would return $100 in profit if they prevail, while a $100 wager on the +110 underdog Maple Leafs would net $110 in winnings.

The +1.5 puckline on Toronto comes with steep -250 odds, meaning they must either win outright or lose by a single goal to cover the spread. Conversely, the Senators are +205 to win by 2+ goals. The 5.5-goal over/under is slightly juiced to the over at -115.

Leafs fans can take advantage of SBD’s Bet99 banger, which has an odds boost of Maple Leafs moneyline + Matthew Knies anytime goal.

Maple Leafs vs Senators Projected Lineups

Maple Leafs Projected Lineup

Forwards
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Pontus Holmberg – John Tavares – William Nylander
Calle Jarnkrok – Scott Laughton – Steven Lorentz
Max Pacioretty – Max Domi – Bobby McMann

Defense
Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo
Jake McCabe – Chris Tanev
Simon Benoit – Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Goaltenders
Anthony Stolarz
Joseph Woll

Scratched: Dakota Mermis, Philippe Myers, David Kampf, Artur Akhtyamov, Nicholas Robertson

Injured: Jani Hakanpaa (lower body)

Senators Projected Lineup

Forwards
Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stutzle – Claude Giroux
Fabian Zetterlund – Dylan Cozens – Drake Batherson
Ridly Greig – Shane Pinto – Michael Amadio
David Perron – Adam Gaudette – Nick Cousins

Defense
Jake Sanderson – Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot – Nick Jensen
Tyler Kleven – Nikolas Matinpalo

Goaltenders
Linus Ullmark
Anton Forsberg

Scratched: Dennis Gilbert, Travis Hamonic, Matthew Highmore

Injured: Hayden Hodgson (lower body)

In Game 4 of the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators matchup, both teams are looking to secure a crucial win in this tightly contested series. With the series tied at 2-2, Game 4 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for both teams as they battle it out for a spot in the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at the lineups for both teams heading into Game 4:

Toronto Maple Leafs:
Forwards: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander
Defense: Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin
Goalie: Jack Campbell

Ottawa Senators:
Forwards: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson
Defense: Thomas Chabot, Nikita Zaitsev
Goalie: Anton Forsberg

Both teams have strong lineups with talented players who have the ability to make a big impact on the game. The Maple Leafs will be looking to their top line of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander to continue their strong play and generate scoring opportunities. On the other hand, the Senators will rely on their young core of Tkachuk, Norris, and Batherson to lead the way offensively.

In terms of predictions for Game 4, it’s expected to be a close and competitive matchup between these two teams. The Maple Leafs have the edge in terms of overall talent and experience, but the Senators have shown that they can compete with some of the best teams in the league.

Expert picks for Game 4 are split, with some analysts favoring the Maple Leafs to come out on top due to their offensive firepower and strong goaltending from Campbell. However, others believe that the Senators have what it takes to pull off an upset and take a commanding lead in the series.

Ultimately, Game 4 is shaping up to be a must-watch game for hockey fans as these two teams battle it out for supremacy in this exciting playoff series. Stay tuned for what promises to be an intense and thrilling matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators.