Analysis of Canada vs Uruguay Match: Odds, Predictions, and Top Picks for Copa America Third-Place Game

Jun 29, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Canada defender Alphonso Davies (19) and defender Derek Cornelius (13) celebrate a goal that was called offside during the second half at Inter&Co Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

• Canada face Uruguay in the third-place game at the 2024 Copa America on Saturday
• Playing with house money, expect Canada to come out attacking against a Uruguay side devastated not to reach the final
• Below, find the Canada vs Uruguay odds, predictions, and expert picks for July 13 in Charlotte, NC

Canada (1-3-2) and Uruguay (3-1-1) are set to meet in the third-place game at the 2024 Copa America on Saturday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina (8:00 pm ET).

Battling for a consolation prize, one would expect the teams to enter Saturday with starkly different attitudes.

For Canada, qualifying for the knockout stage rendered the entire tournament a success, and reaching the semifinals was one of the biggest results in team history. Uruguay entered the tournament with legitimate title aspirations, and looked the part of a potential champion before losing to Colombia (1-0) in a semifinal that saw them playing a man up for the entire second half.

Though the Canadians may have more motivation to win, the Canada vs Uruguay odds heavily favor the South American side capturing third-place.

Canada vs Uruguay Odds: Copa America Third-Place Game

The Canada vs Uruguay three-way moneyline lists La Celeste at -185 to win in regular time and -550 to finish third. A Canadian regular-time victory is priced at a long +500 and Canada is +320 to win the bronze medal, so to speak. A 90-minute draw is currently sitting at +320 odds.

Odds as of July 11 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on the Copa America playoffs. 

Uruguay entered the tournament as a +550 third-favorite to win in the Copa America odds, trailing only Argentina and Brazil. (With Argentina facing Colombia in Sunday’s title game, the reigning World Cup and Copa-champions are now -169 chalk to repeat.)

Canada’s star player, Bayern Munich full back Alphonso Davies, had to leave the team’s semifinal loss to Argentina in the second half due to an ankle injury. While x-rays came back negative, Davies is still very much in doubt to start on Saturday.

Uruguay will be without Nicolas de la Cruz, who is suspended after receiving a yellow card in the loss to Colombia. Midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur is in doubt for the third-place game after leaving the semifinal with a leg injury in the 32nd minute.

Canada Recent Results

Canada’s 2-0 loss to Argentina on Tuesday was the fifth time in the last seven games that Jesse Marsch’s team failed to score a goal. They advanced out of Group A with just one tally to their name and added a second in a 1-1 draw with Venezuela in the round of 16, which they eventually won on penalties.

That said, Canada’s attack has looked more and more vigorous as the tournament has gone on. After averaging just 6.33 shot attempts per game in the group stage (2.66 on target), they fired 16 attempts at goal (seven on target) in the Venezuela match alone.

Uruguay Recent Results

Uruguay couldn’t parlay its high-scoring group-stage sweep into knockout-stage success. La Celeste failed to score a single goal during a 0-0 draw with Brazil, which they won 4-2 on penalties, or a 1-0 loss to Colombia, which they played 11-vs-10 for the entire second half.

Uruguay generated just 0.65 xGF against the Colombians, with star striker Darwin Nunez looking particularly uninspired in front of goal.

Nunez had been the key to Uruguay’s recent run of success. He had scored in seven straight matches, including Uruguay’s tournament-opening wins over Panama and Bolivia. But the Liverpool man has now been kept off the scoresheet in three straight.

Nunez, Betancur, and several other Uruguay players were involved in a post-game melee in the stands with Colombian fans on Wednesday. But it doesn’t appear as if suspensions or injuries resulted that will impact the third-place game.

Canada vs Uruguay Predictions

If this game meant more, I would have a hard time backing a so-far lethargic Canadian attack against a defense as resolute as Uruguay’s. But the Copa America has a long history of wide-open third-placed games in which defensive resolve noticeably wanes.  Seven of the last nine have gone over 2.5 goals, including each of the last two. The most-recent third-place game was a 3-2 thriller in which Colombia edged Peru.

Even without the speed of Davies and Tajon Buchanan, who suffered a broken leg in practice before the Venezuela match, Canada still has plenty of quality attacking players, including the fleet-footed Jacob Shaffelburg, who’s looked like a perfect addition next to Mallorca’s Cyle Larin and Lille’s Jonathan David up front.

I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Canada game out pressing the action and nicked the first goal of the game en route to a full-time draw.

Canada vs Uruguay picks:

• Canada to score first goal (+210 at FanDuel)
• Double-chance Canada or Draw (+145 at DraftKings)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-19-1 (+14.72 units). All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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