- A massive game in the AFC playoff race takes place on TNF as the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers
- The Broncos would clinch their first postseason berth since 2015 with a victory
- See the Broncos vs Chargers odds and picks for Thursday Night Football (Dec. 19)
The Denver Broncos (9-5, 4-3 away, ATS) have already done something they haven’t in seven seasons – guarantee themselves a winning record – and on Thursday night, Sean Payton’s team can do something it hasn’t done since a year prior: book a ticket to the playoffs. Standing in their way will be the team that currently sits in the third and final AFC Wild Card, the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6, 4-3 home, ATS). As usual, kickoff for Thursday Night Football is set for 8:15 pm ET. Prime Video will carry the broadcast.
Broncos vs Chargers Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +3.0 (-120) | +130 | O 42.5 (-105) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | -3.0 (-100) | -150 | U 42.5 (-115) |
Despite an ugly 40-17 loss at home to the Buccaneers last Sunday, their second loss in as many weeks, the Chargers have been set as three-point favorites against the surging Broncos, who have won four straight. The Chargers are also -150 favorites on the moneyline with Denver coming back as +130 road underdogs. The game total is sitting at 42.5 with the under slightly favored at -115.
Odds as of Dec. 18 at ESPN Bet. Read SBD’s ESPN Bet review to get the latest promo code available for Thursday Night Football.
Neither team is likely to miss the postseason regardless of what happens on Thursday. The three teams chasing LAC for the final Wild Card are all two games back at 6-8 (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Miami). Denver needs just one victory in its final three games to book a ticket while the Chargers are likely to get in with one more victory and get to face the 3-11 Patriots and 2-12 Raiders in their final two games of the season. Both teams enter Week 16 as massive -1100 favorites to reach the postseason in the latest NFL playoff odds. (Bookmaker SBD’s NFL playoff bracket to see the up-to-date postseason field.)
Chargers Offense Struggling
At no point this season has Los Angeles been among the league’s elite offenses – save for one week against a Cincinnati defense that makes everyone look like the Greatest Show on Turf – but the last three weeks have seen a marked decline for Justin Herbert and company. The Chargers have been held to just 17 points in three straight games. Herbert is averaging just 185 passing yards per game in that span with a 91.7 passer rating, well below his season average of 97.5.
Getting held to 17 points in a road game against the Kansas City Chiefs is understandable. But a 17-13 win on the Falcons’ fast track at Mercedes Benz Stadium and last week’s 40-17 home defeat to the Bucs are less so. Both Atlanta (24.4 PPG) and Tampa Bay (23.2 PPG) are in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense.
Broncos Defense Is Elite
While rookie QB gets a lot of (mostly deserved) plaudits for the Broncos’ surge up the standings this season, the defense has been the real MVP of the team. Denver’s defense has held opponents to an NFL -best 247 points this season (17.6 PPG, tied with Pittsburgh) and rates as the third best D overall at PFF.
The unit has been excellent over the last five games, holding four of their opponents under 20 points, including the Chiefs (16-14 road loss), Falcons (38-6 home win), and Colts (31-13 home win).
Bo Nix throws the ball to nobody and gets intercepted, what was the thought here? pic.twitter.com/kDq1HdwDs1
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) December 15, 2024
The major area of concern for Broncos fans heading into Week 16 is how losse Nix has gotten with the ball. The rookie threw three picks against the Colts last week and two against the Browns the week prior, which ended a run of three straight games without an interception for the 24-year-old.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers Picks
Denver has looked like the better overall team than the Chargers over the course of the season, and the analytics bear that out. The Broncos have nearly doubled LAC in point differential (+89 vs +47) and have a considerably better DVOA rating: Denver is 10th in the NFL at +17.1% while LA is 13th at +9.4%.
Yes, the Chargers have home-field advantage, but that’s never been much of a boon for LAC. Since moving to SoFi Stadium in the 2020 season, the Chargers are just 20-21 at home (and 39-42 overall).
I am moving the line up half a point to get the Broncos plus a hook. The way LAC’s offense is playing, I can’t stomach betting them to win by more than a field goal, if I could stomach betting them to beat a quality opponent at all. This could be a very long night for Herbert and the Charger offense against the league’s top pass rush (49 sacks).
- DEN vs LAC pick: Broncos +3.5 (-145) at ESPN Bet
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The Denver Broncos will face off against the Los Angeles Chargers in a highly anticipated Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 16. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 15 and will be looking to bounce back with a win.
The Broncos are currently sitting at 5-8 on the season and are in danger of missing the playoffs. They have struggled on both sides of the ball, ranking near the bottom of the league in both offense and defense. Quarterback Drew Lock has shown flashes of potential but has been inconsistent throughout the season. The Broncos will need a strong performance from Lock and their offense if they hope to come out on top against the Chargers.
On the other side, the Chargers are also sitting at 5-8 on the season and have had their fair share of struggles as well. Despite having one of the most talented rosters in the league, the Chargers have been unable to put it all together this season. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been a bright spot for the team, throwing for over 3,600 yards and 25 touchdowns in his rookie season. The Chargers will need Herbert to continue his strong play if they want to secure a win against the Broncos.
In terms of odds, the Broncos are currently listed as 3-point underdogs against the Chargers. This means that oddsmakers believe the Chargers have a slight edge in this matchup. However, with both teams having similar records and struggling in recent weeks, this game could truly go either way.
As for picks, it’s a tough call in this matchup. Both teams have shown flashes of potential but have also been inconsistent throughout the season. In the end, I believe the Chargers will come out on top in a close game. Herbert has been playing at a high level and I think he will be able to lead his team to victory against the Broncos.
Overall, this Thursday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and Chargers is sure to be an exciting one. Both teams will be looking to end their season on a high note and secure a much-needed win. It will be interesting to see which team comes out on top and keeps their playoff hopes alive.