Analysis of Baylor vs Duke Matchup: Odds, Betting Trends, Prediction, and Best Pick

• The #1 Duke Blue Devils are 12.5-point favorites over the #9 Baylor Bears on Sunday
• Duke shot 50% from the field and splashed 14 threes in their 1st Round win
• See the Baylor vs Duke public betting splits, plus my prediction and pick, below

From a talent perspective, the odds appear stacked against No. 9 Baylor (20-14) in their 2nd Round matchup with No. 1 Duke (32-3). Add in the fact that this is basically a home game for the Blue Devils, and I’ll be surprised if the Bears don’t get run out of the gym. Online sportsbooks agree, pegging Cooper Flagg and Co. as mega chalk in the latest college basketball odds. Tip-off is scheduled for 2:40pm ET from the Lenovo Center, in Raleigh, NC, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Baylor vs Duke Odds

Duke is currently favored by 12.5-points and -800 on the moneyline. The total sits at 143.5, with Baylor coming back as +550 underdogs. The spread has moved a point in the Blue Devils favor since opening odds were released, while the over/under has stood pat.

Odds as of March 22 at DraftKings. Lock in all the March Madness betting promos before the tournament tips off.

This contest will take place roughly 30 minutes away from the Duke campus. We can expect a rowdy bunch of Blue Devils fans, giving Duke yet another advantage. From a numbers perspective, everything points to a Blue Devils blowout.

Baylor vs Duke Public-Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits for Baylor vs Duke show the public feels the same way. The Blue Devils are garnering 74% of the spread bets as -12.5 favorites, and 97% of the moneyline wagers. As for the total, the splits aren’t quite so extreme. 66% of bettors are on the under, predicting this matchup falls short of 143.5 points.

Baylor vs Duke Prediction & Pick

• Duke Blue Devils -12.5 (-110) at DraftKings

My prediction is that Duke overwhelms Baylor at both ends. This year’s Blue Devils squad have the second highest Net Rating all-time since Kenpom started tracking college hoops. They’re top-four in both offensive and defensive rating, and have the speed, skill and size to destroy the Bears.

Duke is the favorite in the March Madness championship odds, and is fresh off an opening round rout. They demolished Mount St Marys 93-49, shooting 50% from the field and splashing 14 threes. Flagg returned after a two-game absence, and looked like his old self. The projected first overall pick had 14 points and 7 boards, including a rim rocking dunk.

On paper, the Bears defense looks formidable, but a closer look reveals that’s misleading. Baylor surrenders high quality three-point looks at one of the highest rates in the country. They’re also small inside, leading to them yielding a 70% field goal percentage at the rim. The Bears have one player taller than 6’5″. That’s extremely problematic versus a 6’9″ Flagg, and Duke’s 7’2″ center Khaman Maluach.

Baylor vs Duke Stats

At the other end of the floor, the Blue Devils defense will clamp down on Baylor’s medicore shooters. The Bears are 139th in effective field goal percentage. They’re outside the top-145 from inside and outside the arc, and they don’t get to the free throw line.

Projected lottery pick VJ Edgecombe is an electric talent, but he shoots just 43% from the field. Duke’s defense is first in opponent effective field goal percentage, 15th in free throws allowed, and 16th in steals.

Another reason I’m making the Blue Devils -12.5 my pick, is Baylor’s horrible results when they face superior competition. Thursday’s win as a 1.5-point underdog, was their first this season when catching points. They’ve suffered blowout losses to Gonzaga, Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona, Texas Tech and Houston, falling by double-digits each time.

Duke has lost once since November and is a perfect 17-0 at home. Given the proximity of this game to their campus, this will be a defacto home game, and Duke has an average margin of victory of 26.4 points in those contests.

In a highly anticipated matchup between two powerhouse college basketball teams, Baylor and Duke are set to face off in what promises to be a thrilling game. Both teams have had impressive seasons so far, with Baylor boasting a 15-2 record and Duke sitting at 13-3. As the game approaches, fans and bettors alike are eagerly analyzing the odds, betting trends, and making predictions on who will come out on top.

The odds for this matchup currently favor Baylor, with most sportsbooks listing them as the favorite to win. However, Duke is not far behind, and with their strong roster and coaching staff, they are certainly capable of pulling off an upset. Bettors will need to carefully consider all factors before placing their bets, as this game could go either way.

When looking at the betting trends for this game, it is important to note that Baylor has been performing well against the spread this season, covering in 10 of their 17 games. On the other hand, Duke has been less consistent, only covering in 7 of their 16 games. This could be a key factor for bettors to consider when making their picks.

In terms of prediction, this game is shaping up to be a close one. Both teams have strong offenses and defenses, making it difficult to predict a clear winner. However, Baylor’s depth and experience may give them the edge in this matchup. Duke will need to rely on their star players to step up and make big plays if they want to come out on top.

For those looking to make a bet on this game, the best pick may be to take Baylor to win straight up. While Duke is certainly capable of pulling off the upset, Baylor’s consistency and depth give them a slight advantage in this matchup. Bettors should also consider taking the over on the total points scored, as both teams have high-powered offenses that can put up big numbers.

Overall, the Baylor vs Duke matchup is sure to be an exciting game that will keep fans on the edge of their seats. With both teams vying for a crucial win, bettors will need to carefully analyze the odds, betting trends, and make their predictions before placing their bets. Whichever team comes out on top, one thing is for certain – this game is not one to miss.